The BJP has registered a record-breaking landslide victory in the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections. For the first time, the party has won a whooping 156 seats of the 182 seats in the legislative assembly. The party has broken several records in the history of Gujarat by winning for the 7th consecutive term and decimating the opposition parties by making them lose their status as the opposition party.
For the first time, BJP has elevated its performance in the rural areas of Gujarat by almost doubling its tally. There are 98 rural seats and 84 urban seats in the Gujarat assembly. In the 2017 election, Congress performed well in the rural areas by winning 52 seats leaving nearly 40 seats for BJP. But in 2022, BJP wrestled Congress holds by winning 75 rural seats, almost doubling the tally since the last election.
There are various reasons for its significant performance.
The Homecoming Of The Patidars
Patidar Communities account for nearly 20% of Gujarat’s population and this community plays a decisive role in more than 50 seats in Gujarat. In most parts of South Gujarat and Saurashtra, the victory or defeat is decided by Patidars. The community is divided into Leuva Patel (70% of the community) and Kadva Patel (30% of the community). The Saurashtra-Kutch area is completely dominated by Leuva Patel.
In a rural region like the Saurashtra-Kutch region, BJP has doubled the tally from 23 seats in 2017 to 47 seats in 2022, while Congress has been reduced to a mere 3 seats in 2022 from its 30 seats in 2017. This rural vote has contributed to BJP’s victory magnificently. The Congress had won Saurashtra-Kutch’s Patidar-dominated seats of Morbi, Tankara, Dhoraji, and Amreli in 2017. All these areas came to BJP this time.
The major move of the BJP ahead of the 2022 elections was reaching out to Patel community. BJP replaced Vijay Rupani from CM Post with Bhupendra Patel in September 2021 and announced him as CM Candidate for the 2022 election.
BJP brought Hardik Patel, a Patidar quota agitation leader from Congress and fielded him from the Viramgam Assembly seat where he won by a huge margin. Earlier he played a significant role in agitating and leading protests against BJP government before 2017 demanding OBC status for Patidar Community.
Another big move of the BJP which pacified the community was giving a 10% quota in jobs and education to the economically weaker sections who hitherto didn’t have any avenue for state support.
Also, Narendra Modi’s factor and outreach initiatives of BJP lead to a huge swing from Patidars towards BJP. PM Modi did an 18 km road show in Varaccha which has 60% of Patidars votes.
The BJP owes its rise in the state to the Patidars as it is the same Patidar community that brought the BJP to power in Gujarat for the first time in 1995 under Keshubhai Patel.
Vote Split
The Congress has finished second in 118 ACs and third in 39, while the AAP has finished second in 35 and third in 114 seats. Though the vote split is not a key factor behind BJP’s win in Gujarat, it has eroded the Congress’ vote share significantly. The analysis points out that BJP would have won 123 seats if AAP and Congress votes are added at the AC level. The lack of a regional face for Congress is also a major factor in its historic erosion in Gujarat.
Rejection Of Freebies Culture
BJP promised to make Gujarat a $1 trillion economy by maintaining its position in manufacturing, focusing on services and building capacity for new-age industries. BJP promised to set up two seafood parks in South Gujarat and Saurashtra and build India’s first Blue Economy Industrial corridor around this region.
BJP also promised a family card yojana which will enable every family to avail benefits of all state government-run welfare schemes. Shramik credit cards for labourers with collateral-free loans up to ₹2 Lakhs.
BJP has promised to develop a Saurashtra Express Highway grid to provide connectivity with important economic hubs and national highways and also spend ₹1 lakh crore under the Vanbandhu Kalyan Yojana 2.0 for the all-around socio-economic development of tribals. This holistic development model has led to goodwill among the people of the state. BJP is best known for its track record of fulfilling its promises. All these pro-poor welfare promises served as a hope of ray for the people in rural areas of Gujarat.
For decades, Gujarat reeled under drought-like conditions with women walking miles to fetch a pot of water. But the successful raising of the Sardar Sarovar dam and the subsequent measures taken and the fact that water has reached to the dry parts of Gujarat through the SAUNI Yojana has led the people of Gujarat to bequeath their hopes on the BJP.
The fact that the state has remained peaceful which was earlier marred by frequent communal riots has made the people of Gujarat to trust the BJP in maintaining law and order.
To put in a nut shell, the quality of life of Gujarat people has become better over the years without the state having to dole out freebies.
The opposition parties like AAP announced an array of freebie promises in sectors like education, healthcare, and electricity has fallen flat. If there is one big message that the Gujarat people are sending across the nation is that they can’t be wooed by freebies but only good governance.
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