Ever since the 2023 election date for Telangana was announced in mid October, it is not surprising to note higher than expected social and political activity in the state. The ECI (Election Commission of India) has confirmed 30 November 2024 to be the single phase state-wide election date with vote-counting likely to take place on December 3, for all the 119 seats to the state’s Legislative Assembly.
First-lists of the three major players have been released – the BRS, BJP and Congress parties, followed by the TDP. In the fray for this year’s state elections are:
– the BRS party (Bharath Rashtra Samithi, formally TRS)
– the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)
– the INC (Indian National Congress)
– the TDP (Telugu Desam Party)
– the AIMIM (All India Majlees E Itehaddul Muslimeen),
-the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party)
– CPI M: Communist Party of India (Marxist)
– CPI
– All India Forward Bloc
– Telangana Jana Samithi
– the JSP (Jana Sena Party)
– YSR Telangana Party
Some early poll predictions indicate an advantage to the incumbent BRS party followed by the BJP or the Congress, while other pre-poll surveys claim a triangular fight to the finish, between the BRS, the BJP & the Congress with an edge to the BRS, closely followed by the Congress.
In the second scenario, the Congress and the BJP will stand a chance at playing kingmaker, in case of a hung assembly. With both popular predictions, current CM K Chandrasekhar Rao’s BRS party appears to have a clear lead and an advantage over the Congress and the BJP, both of which are beset with problems of disgruntled leaders, infighting and a lack of solid political strategy, relative to that of the ruling BRS party.
If the BRS does return to power for a third consecutive time, it would go down in independent India’s history as a rare and impressive one, regardless of the reasons for its predicted win. The BRS party is expected to continue its opportunistic electoral partnership with the Telangana-based AIMIM party, hoping to carry the state’s Muslim vote under Asaduddin Owaisi’s leadership.
The Congress is desperate to recapture its minority Muslim and Christian vote, back from the BRS party. It is counting on its popular minority face, Mohammed Ali Shabbir, who headed the ‘Minorities Welfare Ministry’ under the previous Congress government in the undivided Andhra Pradesh state (current states of Andhra and Telangana before the larger state’s bifurcation). Shabbir is reportedly putting together the Congress party’s ‘Minorities Declaration’, hoping to counter the BRS government’s schemes for backward classes and religious minorities which includes a financial assistance promise of a one-time subsidized loan of ₹1 lakh to a member each of a BC (backward class), Muslim and Christian families. The Congress party is expected to release its “minority declaration” soon as part of its 2023 Telangana election manifesto, including a rumored ₹5,000 crore budget supposedly for the welfare of the minorities.
The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi party had earlier announced an intention to establish ‘Christian Bhavans’ on the lines of the bhavans or community buildings, that it had constructed for different castes and communities.
A conglomerate of the state’s Christian groups are now trying to present themselves as a united, consolidated vote bank, ready to support any “secular” party. They have announced a 25-point agenda which includes a demand for reservations in both government housing and jobs, proportionate to their population and a “special development fund”. It was reported that a delegation of leaders from three Christian groups (Telangana State Federation of Churches (TSFC), Synod of Telangana (SOT) and Telangana Council of Churches (TCC)) recently met to discuss and finalize a “Telangana Christian Community Declaration for Political Parties – 2023”.
Their demands include a budget for addressing their education, health care, employment, skill development and welfare needs. They also demand two minority residential schools for Christian students in each of the 10 districts where Christians allegedly (as claimed by the Christian leaders) can influence voting patterns based on their numbers, grant-in-aid posts in Christian minority institutions, 5 per cent quota in the existing ‘Weaker Sections’ housing, 2 per cent reservation in government jobs, a helpline and emergency response cell as well as honorariums and health insurance for pastors, priests, brothers and nuns. Their tall list of demands include 100 acres of land in the Greater Hyderabad region and 10 acres in each of the district headquarters for Christian graveyards!
It is no surprise that both the “secular” BRS and Congress parties are indulging in heavy minority-appeasement politics and are ready to go to war over Telangana’s Muslim and Christian votes (2011 official census figures: 12.6% muslim,1.3% Christian). There have been several claims and accusations about the actual Christian numbers in the state being higher… but misreported / under-reported during the census exercise, on account of intentional false information or non-declaration by lower caste Christian converts, hoping to continue taking advantage of caste-based special reservations and economic schemes, meant for disadvantaged Hindu groups.
Does the BJP, which has always claimed it does not indulge in minority-appeasement politics, have an advantage with its focus on the Hindu community’s concerns? The BJP which seemed to have an advantage over the Congress until August, when its state leadership changed hands (the state-level leadership of firebrand, Bandi Sanjay Kumar is sorely missed after his transfer to a national-level post) appears to have lost some recently gained momentum and now seems to be on an equal footing with the Congress. The TDP is a distant fourth with all other parties playing small, niche roles and eyeing an insignificant portion of the pie.
In the run up to the polling, barely a month away, the BJP made two significant political announcements over the last few days:
1) The party revoked the temporary suspension of its Goshamahal (a constituency in the capital city, Hyderabad) MLA. T Raja Singh, a popular two-time BJP MLA was suspended by the party in August, after the BRS government directed the Telangana police to arrest Raja Singh under the Preventive Detention Act, when he allegedly insulted Prophet Mohammed in a social media post. He was welcomed back by BJP party workers with much gusto in Goshamahal constituency, which he has won two times consecutively for the BJP in 2014 and 2018.
2) The BJP announced its decision to field the successful, veteran ex-BRS politician and MLA, Eatala Rajendar, to take on the Chief Minister, K Chandrasekhar Rao, in Gajwel constituency. Eatala Rajendar joined the BJP in 2021 after a solid eighteen year history with the BRS party, during which he scored many impressive electoral wins for the BRS and earned two ministries in the BRS government (2014-2018: Telangana Finance Minister, 2019-2021: Health Minister). Rajendar was discharged from his Health Ministry post and dismissed from the state cabinet in May 2021, by the Chandrasekhar Rao government, after allegations of land encroachments. Rajendar chose to resign from the BRS party and join the BJP in June 2021. He is a seasoned politician with a winning record, that the BJP has chosen to stand up to the current Chief Minister in the Nov 30 elections.
Will The BJP’s Chess Moves Pay Off As Expected?
The gossip columns speculate that the BJP’s electoral strategy for Telangana is a two-fold one, where it hopes to retain its recent gains in the state including an increase in membership, during the upcoming state elections while focusing on the 2024 national elections where it expects the state’s electorate to consolidate its vote for the BJP in a national capacity and support the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who continues to be regarded as a popular and successful national-level leader.
Shivani is a freelance writer based out of Vijayawada.
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