Ever since the 2023 Karnataka state election dates were announced last week, pre-poll surveys and statistics have popped up on most news sites. Will the Southern gateway of the BJP, vote for the party again and enable it to stay in power beyond May 2023 or will a united opposition featuring an uneasy alliance between the Congress and the Janata Dal Secular, sound the victory bugle?
The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced a single phase poll to take place in the state on 10 May 2023 for electing all 224 members to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. The results are expected to be declared on 13 May 2023.
The three principal parties in the fray for a hotly contested Karnataka state election are the BJP, the Congress and the JDS. Thus far, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Communist parties have had a negligible presence in the state. It is widely believed that the 2023 election is being fought on two main issues (religion and caste) with another two issues trailing closely behind (alleged corruption with government projects and Bengaluru city’s administrative/civic issues).
All three parties have their share of challenges and problems. Most pre-poll surveys project a close contest between the BJP and the Congress with neither party attaining a clear majority and hence depending on the JDS for the required numbers, giving the JDS party a smug ‘king maker’ status.
The ruling BJP dispensation is grappling with allegations of corruption with government contracts/ recruitments and non-payment or significantly delayed payments to private contractors. The BJP is also on the back foot with failing to fix Bengaluru city’s perennial list of civic problems such as bad roads, pot holes, traffic management, water logging during the monsoons and poorly constructed over passes, under passes and small bridges. In all fairness, these issues have been around for a while with no previous government or political party having taken the necessary action to resolve them. However, the city’s residents often direct their angst and frustration on the party in power in any given year and that happens to be the BJP for the last four of the five years, since the 2018 state elections.The party also struggles with its attention split between two important leaders within the state’s BJP unit – the current CM Basavaraj Bommai and the previous CM (2019-2021), BJP strongman and crowd puller, BS Yediyurappa.
The Karnataka Congress unit has been beset by open, heavy-duty infighting between two men with super sized egos – former CM Siddaramaiah and CM Hopeful, DK Shiva Kumar, both claiming support from their party’s ‘high command’. There have been a handful of shameful, openly hostile confrontations between the two leaders, neither unwilling to sacrifice their personal ambitions for their party’s and the state’s larger interest. Despite a show of unity in the presence of the Congress’s national leaders, both Shiva Kumar and Siddaramaiah have often been ridiculed for their childish finger-pointing and sparring between themselves and their supporters.
Additionally, DK Shiva Kumar has been in the news for allegations of corruption, income tax evasion and a few disproportionate-assets charges, by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax department. In their previous tenure, the Congress like the incumbent BJP, was also accused of several corruption charges.The party also fared poorly in its much publicized political alliance with the JDS, resulting in the collapse of the JDS-led coalition government in 2019 and ending the alliance on a bitter note.
As for the JDS, it does not have a strong pan-Karnataka presence, limiting its influence and popularity to the Old Mysuru region including Mandya district. The JDS core votebank is a section of mostly rural and semi-urban people involved in the farming sector, one way or another. Its current leader, HD Kumaraswamy (son of former Indian Prime Minister, HD Deve Gowda) has thus far, not demonstrated an ability to draw the attention of a wider voter base nor the ability to enter into and maintain a strong political alliance with either the BJP or the Congress. The party’s political promises appear similar to those of the other political parties and do not stand out in any way from a vast plethora and clutter of electoral promises. If the JDS does manage to grab a significant share of votes, fulfilling the pre-poll prediction of the party being in a position to strike a crucial deal/ make or break a BJP-led or Congress-led coalition state government, which party will it choose to support and what will it bargain for?
For the ruling BJP, the 2023 elections will be a test of its views and policies in areas of religion (the Burqa ban, communal confrontations on other issues), Caste equations (increased reservation for Lingayats and Vokkaligas while reducing reservations for a section of muslims, internal reshuffle within an increased SC reservation) and its promise of continued economic assistance and support from the BJP government at the centre. Both the Congress as well as the BJP are also engaged in vociferously expressing their views on a long-standing border dispute between Karnataka and Maharastra over Belagavi (Belgaum) district in North Karnataka.
Most political analysts speculate that religion and caste would be the major deciding factors in the upcoming elections, well over issues of development and administration.The Lingayats and Vokkaligas are the two largest homogenous castes in North and South Karnataka respectively with the Kuruba community in the third slot, mostly based out of the state’s Eastern regions. The various Scheduled Caste (SC) communities together form the largest heterogenous group across the state.
Historically, the BJP has done well with the Lingayat community, the JDS has the support of the Vokkaligas and the Congress has traditionally tried to balance caste equations in the state, taking care not to tip the scales too much in favour of any one particular community. Current BJP chief minister and his predecessor, Bommai and Yeddiruppa are both Lingayats, former CM Siddaramaiah of the Congress is a Kuruba, the Congress’s trouble shooter and CM hopeful, D.K Shiva Kumar is a Vokkaliga and the JDS’s Kumaraswamy is a Vokkaliga as well.
All three parties are armed with their respective party’s caste and region-based statistics, calculations and analytics. Which party’s analysis and strategy, based on caste, regional and religious factors, will bring in the votes? Will the voters surprise political stalwarts of all three parties by voting across regional, religious and caste lines? Karnataka will have its political answers in less than two nerve wracking months from now, at the end of May.
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Karnataka Polls 2023: And the Winner is…
Ever since the 2023 Karnataka state election dates were announced last week, pre-poll surveys and statistics have popped up on most news sites. Will the Southern gateway of the BJP, vote for the party again and enable it to stay in power beyond May 2023 or will a united opposition featuring an uneasy alliance between the Congress and the Janata Dal Secular, sound the victory bugle?
The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced a single phase poll to take place in the state on 10 May 2023 for electing all 224 members to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. The results are expected to be declared on 13 May 2023.
The three principal parties in the fray for a hotly contested Karnataka state election are the BJP, the Congress and the JDS. Thus far, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Communist parties have had a negligible presence in the state. It is widely believed that the 2023 election is being fought on two main issues (religion and caste) with another two issues trailing closely behind (alleged corruption with government projects and Bengaluru city’s administrative/civic issues).
All three parties have their share of challenges and problems. Most pre-poll surveys project a close contest between the BJP and the Congress with neither party attaining a clear majority and hence depending on the JDS for the required numbers, giving the JDS party a smug ‘king maker’ status.
The ruling BJP dispensation is grappling with allegations of corruption with government contracts/ recruitments and non-payment or significantly delayed payments to private contractors. The BJP is also on the back foot with failing to fix Bengaluru city’s perennial list of civic problems such as bad roads, pot holes, traffic management, water logging during the monsoons and poorly constructed over passes, under passes and small bridges. In all fairness, these issues have been around for a while with no previous government or political party having taken the necessary action to resolve them. However, the city’s residents often direct their angst and frustration on the party in power in any given year and that happens to be the BJP for the last four of the five years, since the 2018 state elections.The party also struggles with its attention split between two important leaders within the state’s BJP unit – the current CM Basavaraj Bommai and the previous CM (2019-2021), BJP strongman and crowd puller, BS Yediyurappa.
The Karnataka Congress unit has been beset by open, heavy-duty infighting between two men with super sized egos – former CM Siddaramaiah and CM Hopeful, DK Shiva Kumar, both claiming support from their party’s ‘high command’. There have been a handful of shameful, openly hostile confrontations between the two leaders, neither unwilling to sacrifice their personal ambitions for their party’s and the state’s larger interest. Despite a show of unity in the presence of the Congress’s national leaders, both Shiva Kumar and Siddaramaiah have often been ridiculed for their childish finger-pointing and sparring between themselves and their supporters.
Additionally, DK Shiva Kumar has been in the news for allegations of corruption, income tax evasion and a few disproportionate-assets charges, by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax department. In their previous tenure, the Congress like the incumbent BJP, was also accused of several corruption charges.The party also fared poorly in its much publicized political alliance with the JDS, resulting in the collapse of the JDS-led coalition government in 2019 and ending the alliance on a bitter note.
As for the JDS, it does not have a strong pan-Karnataka presence, limiting its influence and popularity to the Old Mysuru region including Mandya district. The JDS core votebank is a section of mostly rural and semi-urban people involved in the farming sector, one way or another. Its current leader, HD Kumaraswamy (son of former Indian Prime Minister, HD Deve Gowda) has thus far, not demonstrated an ability to draw the attention of a wider voter base nor the ability to enter into and maintain a strong political alliance with either the BJP or the Congress. The party’s political promises appear similar to those of the other political parties and do not stand out in any way from a vast plethora and clutter of electoral promises. If the JDS does manage to grab a significant share of votes, fulfilling the pre-poll prediction of the party being in a position to strike a crucial deal/ make or break a BJP-led or Congress-led coalition state government, which party will it choose to support and what will it bargain for?
For the ruling BJP, the 2023 elections will be a test of its views and policies in areas of religion (the Burqa ban, communal confrontations on other issues), Caste equations (increased reservation for Lingayats and Vokkaligas while reducing reservations for a section of muslims, internal reshuffle within an increased SC reservation) and its promise of continued economic assistance and support from the BJP government at the centre. Both the Congress as well as the BJP are also engaged in vociferously expressing their views on a long-standing border dispute between Karnataka and Maharastra over Belagavi (Belgaum) district in North Karnataka.
Most political analysts speculate that religion and caste would be the major deciding factors in the upcoming elections, well over issues of development and administration.The Lingayats and Vokkaligas are the two largest homogenous castes in North and South Karnataka respectively with the Kuruba community in the third slot, mostly based out of the state’s Eastern regions. The various Scheduled Caste (SC) communities together form the largest heterogenous group across the state.
Historically, the BJP has done well with the Lingayat community, the JDS has the support of the Vokkaligas and the Congress has traditionally tried to balance caste equations in the state, taking care not to tip the scales too much in favour of any one particular community. Current BJP chief minister and his predecessor, Bommai and Yeddiruppa are both Lingayats, former CM Siddaramaiah of the Congress is a Kuruba, the Congress’s trouble shooter and CM hopeful, D.K Shiva Kumar is a Vokkaliga and the JDS’s Kumaraswamy is a Vokkaliga as well.
All three parties are armed with their respective party’s caste and region-based statistics, calculations and analytics. Which party’s analysis and strategy, based on caste, regional and religious factors, will bring in the votes? Will the voters surprise political stalwarts of all three parties by voting across regional, religious and caste lines? Karnataka will have its political answers in less than two nerve wracking months from now, at the end of May.
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