Before we impose lockdown and adopting several ineffective measures to contain COVID spread in a country like India which is also the safe haven of superstition, illiteracy, poverty, exploitation, great economic inequality, acute unemployment crisis, scary economy, hopeless future, we must understand one thing clearly and that is, we can at best only delay the spread and cannot prevent the viral spread in our country.
Our social, cultural, economic and educational realities are such and therefore western style or western advisory will not work for India. Instead of adopting self-destructive and counterproductive measures politically, economically and also from human life per se, we should have allowed the virus to travel through India freely without much restrictions, e-pass or e-registration etc., and if we had done the same, by now India would have got rid of COVID.
We should have created adequate awareness among people along with some economic package and support system, people would have protected them from COVID much more effectively than what we have achieved through imposing nation-wide and state wide lockdown causing collateral damage to our economy, employment and education.
Due to diverse population dynamics in India and the possible heterogeneity among human population, any new virus is likely to get surprised by its host in India than in any other country.
It is quite natural for any new pathogen when finds a new host, both for the pathogen and the host, it is a new experience. But such newness is unlikely to prolong because both the host and pathogen would do everything to adjust or achieve cybernetic or equilibrium in their relationship with each other.
One of the most common such adjustment or evolutionary trick adopted by the virus is the formation of variants or mutants. Greater the variants among the pathogen means greater the diversity in the host population from the point of view of the virus and hence it changes intentionally to harmonize in the new ecosystem by becoming a new mutant or variant.
The beauty of evolution is that different variants co-exist within the same host instead of competing with each other. When different variants with obviously different traits co-exist in the same host cell, they do share some of the advantageous traits of other. Different variants can evolve with different traits such as high multiplication rate or slow multiplication rate, high or slow invasiveness to various tissues and organs, high or low communicability, high or low tolerance towards host immunity etc. When two strains obviously with two different traits like high and low reproductive ability when coexist in same host cell, we always expect the one that has the higher reproductive trait will dominate and the other would get diminished but that is not true because of genetic sharing. The genetic sharing between the two variants would naturally bring down the reproductive rate of the former and would balance the process.
Further, the spatial distribution also would take place between them. Imagine about the world of diverse variants of the same virus co-existing in the same host cell. The competitive survival interaction between different variants and with the host would only likely to push both the host and virus towards harmonious existence and never towards elimination because elimination strategy will not give any advantage either to the virus or to the host.
Look at the scenario of predator niche in any wildlife ecosystem. Mega carnivores, middle level carnivore, micro-carnivore, scavengers etc., often distribute spatially although their home range may overlap frequently. Further, the different carnivores do directly and indirectly control the population dynamics of the other species of carnivores like how hyena kills the cubs of lion and vice versa or how lion kills cheetah cubs or how painted dogs snatch the hard-earned prey of hyena or leopard and cause starvation led death etc.
In nature, every form of life has evolved only to provide both beneficial and adverse service to other species of life in order to balance the ecosystem. The structure of nature does not just follow the laws of interdependence but also to execute the act of course correction and balancing both the micro and macro ecosystem.
When mutation of virus is happening in any given host population means, from the evolutionary angle, the virus is facing stiff challenge from the host. During such challenging situation, accommodative traits only evolution would favour and never aggression or self-immolation or elimination of the other.
Lion very rarely only hunts hyena or leopard for food and vice versa. When hyena population increases, naturally their ability to hunt larger prey also would increase due to their number and which in turn may help the mega carnivore if they too have numbers to their side, would snatch the kill. Such process in due course of time would limit the over population of hyena through frequent prey loss and starvation.
In dealing COVID pandemic we over played our cards, got exhausted and in the process we have not only destroyed our economy but also the elementary confidence and self-reliance of people. Fear of COVID, dark clouds of death, the eyes of scary and torturous future, life filled with lack of trust and social spirit to our fellowmen (as he or she may carry the virus), and if not social, obviously mental distancing etc., are only cheerleads us from everywhere.
Our COVID measures have made our life neither worth living not worth dying.
India needs to adopt its strategy in accordance to the principles of biology and evolution and not just the scary advisory of medicos. Host-pathogen equilibrium will happen soon if we give virus, free pass to travel through India.
