Enough has been said about BJP’s defeat in West Bengal. But still the violence perpetrated by TMC goons wrecks havoc in the state. Even after winning elections by a landslide, TMC goons have unleashed violence on those who did not vote for them. What is the reason behind it? Is Chief Minister Mamta still not confident about her future that she has let loose her goons on her political opponents?
Once a party wins an election they will be elated and will start working on the blind spots i.e the constituencies and the voter cohorts who did not voted for them. They start engaging with them in the form of increasing the membership, appease the communities by providing ministerial births, government benefits etc. But if the same group of voters/constituencies are not voting for the party in more than 2 election cycles (i.e 10 years) then the party might stop engaging much with them and will continue the status quo of engagement which happened before the elections. But TMC is not doing these. Instead it focuses too much on BJP. In Bengal this is the first time that the BJP has tripled the vote share in the Assembly elections. Even though BJP has increased its vote share, the TMC has been unhurt with respect to its seats won or vote share. Yet, they are engaging violently with BJP. It either shows the lack of confidence TMC has on Bengalis or else TMC knows it has hit its peak which is making it go crazy as there is no way they can do that again.
Let us now look at the major points arising out of the results and analyze.
1.BJP increased its vote share from mere 10% to 38%. In 2016 BJP got 29 lakh votes, they increased it to 2.28 crore votes in 2021. A whopping 2 crore votes more. It all happened in one election cycle. It is not a small feat. Never ever has any party seen such a growth. Even Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal took 2 elections at Assembly level to increase his vote share.
2.Usually when a wave election happens it will hit the opponent very hard like Congress, Communists. When compared to 2019 Lok Sabha elections BJP just lost 2 lakh voters in a wave election against it. BJP is the only party which has withstood many wave elections against it either by holding on to its previous vote share or seats. Examples are Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. However, they bounced back very quickly in the next election.
3. BJP lost around 56 seats in margin of less than 15000 votes.
| Vote Margin | 10000-15000 | 5000-10000 | 1000-5000 | less than 1000 |
| Seats lost | 15 | 19 | 19 | 3 |
If one adds up these seats to the current tally of 77, it will come to 133.
4. If BJP adds 20000-25000 votes more in the above 36 seats along with additional 20 seats, they can cross 148 which means they have to add around 11 lakh to 15 lakh i.e 5-7% more with current vote percentage. Which is very feasible for BJP since it added 2 crore more votes in 2021 when compared to 2016.
5. The main reason why BJP missed the mark was due to women voters not voting for the party. If BJP can come up with schemes specifically for women voters it can do wonders. There are existing templates for the BJP to do that. They can take a leaf out of Orunudoi scheme of Assam, flavors of Kanya Dhan scheme of Karnataka, free washing machine scheme announced by ADMK in TN etc.
6. 38% of votes which BJP has got is, all from Hindu community only. When we extrapolate it, it can be deciphered as below
- Out of 80% people who voted we can subtract 15-20% of minority voters so it means that 65-60% of Hindus voted.
- In that 60-65% BJP has got 38% i.e around 58-63% of Hindus votes which is a humongous number. This has sent a shiver down the spine of Mamata and has made the TMC go bonkers.
7. Jim Crow Law of Bengal: Bengal is the only state in India which follows the principles of Jim Crow. Jim Crow Law is one of the starting points of American civil rights movement. Using Jim Crow Laws, the US govt segregated African Americans and it made sure African Americans are underrepresented in all fields in the US. Similarly Congress, Communists & TMC follow the template of threatening opposite party booth workers, intimidating voters so that they will not be able to vote freely and if it does not work out then they go on a killing spree so that nobody will sit in opposition. It is now the onus of BJP higher ups to break this cycle and make sure its workers stay put and defend their rights.
8. Defeat of sitting CM Mamta Banerjee in her seat is no ordinary thing. In the history of Bengal this is the first time the incumbent CM has been defeated but the party won massively. So it shows the vulnerability of TMC in the future elections. Contrary to what the media portrays, it is not BJP which is nervous but the head of the TMC, Mamta who is biting her nails. It makes the first family of TMC more angry and seems to have allowed the violence for the past few days.
9. The media narrative which is happening now looks like a redux of the BJP defeat in UP Lok Sabha by-polls in 2018. At that time many argued that the results cannot be taken as referendum on PM Modi entirely.
The BJP has faced this trial by fire many times (Delhi in 2015, Bihar in 2018, etc). But when the smoke clears everyone will realize that it is the BJP which has emerged stronger making Mamta more vulnerable. Also it is to be noted that BJP always performs well when it is the underdog.
So what are the minimum things BJP can do in West Bengal to increase its vote by 5-7%
1.Formulate the CAA rules. Don’t wait for next election cycle. Create the basic rules of CAA by 2022 and start giving citizenship documents to Matuas. Even if West Bengal government blocks it, start giving citizenship to a small percentage of Matua community people in other states. It can create a tremendous good will among Matuas which can help in further consolidation.
2.Announce schemes targeting women voters at Central level and start implementing it. Schemes like Orunudoi of Assam, Flavors of Kanya Dhan scheme of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Free washing machine announced by ADMK in TN etc., can really help in gathering more women votes for BJP.
3. Run a campaign targeting Bengali youth residing in different states. Not all are supporters of left ideology. There are huge silent Bengali youths who are angry with the current violence unleashed by TMC.
4. There are multiple ways to win any election. The BJP can either focus on spreading across all constituencies or follow the Assam approach of focusing only on favourable constituencies. So instead of giving a lot of efforts in convincing Bhadralok communities, focus can be given on other areas around Kolkata. Bhadralok communities will rally behind the party which wins. First they were with Congress then communists and now with TMC. So focusing on voter sections who will give high yield like women voters, youths etc will be fruitful. Even if BJP wins additional 40 seats, entire Bhadralok communities will start supporting BJP in lock stock and barrel.
5. It is better not to focus and split Muslim communities. Consider that they will vote en bloc and devise a strategy to overcome it like Assam BJP. As usual Muslims’ demand will sky rocket now and the TMC will not be able to complete support or oppose their demands. This will put both the Muslims and the TMC in a catch 22 situation which will automatically result in splitting of votes.
After the Bihar election everyone wrote off BJP and the Modi-Shah magic. But they know that they lose a battle to win a war. The BJP has sown its seeds and watered it well. Its political dividends for the next election will be greater than that of 2021.
As of now, the BJP State and Central team should focus on supporting booth level workers physically and financially to safeguard themselves from violent attacks by TMC goons.
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