I was recently watching a TV debate on who is the challenger for BJP in 2024. The panelists were predictably arguing that it’s very early days. Anything can happen in politics. Things can change drastically in a week leave alone two years still left for the 2024 elections. I was not at all convinced with this statement as I don’t see anyone in the horizon in the opposition who can bring about any change in the narrative even in the next two years that will trouble the BJP. However, I was tempted to do some number crunching to substantiate my gut feel. I am just a keen political observer and not a psephologist nor an expert political analyst. However, I still wanted to use my common sense and logic to corroborate my hunch of BJP winning very easily in 2024.
I pulled out the results of the last four Loksabha elections from the internet. Here is a look at 10 states where BJP has strengthened itself over the years and where we can expect this party to do really well.
Let me explain my thought process going state by state. BJP has increased by leaps and bounds in Uttar Pradesh from 10 in 2004 to 62 in 2019. Given Yogi Adityanath’s growing popularity and a weak opposition I am guessing BJP will not fall below 60 seats in 2024. With a strong Fadnavis and Shinde combo, BJP will better its earlier performance of 23 seats to around a 30 in Maharashtra.
Maharashtra would back BJP more now at the center based on their bringing Eknath Shinde to power selflessly. The BJP track record has been very consistent in Madhya Pradesh but even if they go down a bit, they will not go below 20. Congress again is not a credible national option and there is none to occupy their space. Karnataka can be a little dicey but will go for BJP more than Congress at the Centre. Gujarat is a done deal for BJP as Gujaratis don’t seem to be in a mood to change their Mota bhai, Narendra bhai. Given the recent law and order situation in Rajasthan, Congress will further lose hold in that state which will help BJP hold their fort. Assam will be a done deal given BJP’s popularity powered by Hemanta Biswa Sarma. I don’t see any other challenge for BJP coming up in Chattisgarh, Haryana and Jharkhand as far as Lok Sabha elections go. Thus by taking even conservative numbers, my guesstimate of the total Loksabha seats for BJP in these 10 states hovers around 213 with a strike rate of 75% of the 285 total seats assuming they will get a little lesser than even 2014.
Now let’s look at other key nine states in which the regional parties are very strong but BJP just needs 59 more to cross the half mark of 272 on their own and form government at the center.
The cumulative strike rate needed for BJP in the above 9 states is just around 26%. Even if BJP doesn’t do as well compared to 2019 in West Bengal, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Kerala, Punjab and Delhi, they should still be okay if they do a bit better in Telangana and Tamil Nadu where they seem to be coming up strong. These are the only states where the regional parties might give a tough fight which is why I have separately looked at them in my analysis. Bihar is one state where BJP stand a chance to do much better if they work harder with a good local BJP face without relying too much on Nitish Kumar. Congress being a non-credible option for people, even if the other Modi hating regional parties like TMC, TRS, DMK, LDF, AAP get together and sweep the seats in their respective states, they will still not be able to cross the half way mark.
Based on all these logical and commonsensical inferences, I strongly believe that 2024 will be a cakewalk for BJP although experts might still say it’s too early and anything can happen. BJP can lose only if whole of India starts hating Modi which is extremely unlikely.
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