How ‘Jan Ki Baat’ Gets Psephology Right
The first time I had been glued to the election forecast was in the year 1984 when I watched Prannoy Roy in Doordarshan TV and had developed keen interest in psephology over the period of years. I have had my eureka moments and also moments of wooden spoon. But Indian democracy is a vast landscape which is tough to understand and make predictions. I remember Late Pramod Mahajan commenting that Indian elections are not one just election but a culmination of 29 states & Union Territories & hence it is a nightmare for any psephologist to predict it right.
Over a period of years few people got their opinion and exit poll right while for most it was an embarrassing moment. These days television channels tie up with different third party agencies and arrive at numbers that they think is right. Since I am also in the business of electoral analysis I thought of analyzing past results and predictions of few analysts.
For the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, I had predicted that BJP would win 302 seats and INC would get 53 seats. My ground work was not intense but I had used my vast network to get vital information which proved to be an asset. But as I started to explore more I came across Jan Ki Baat (JKB) and its Founder Pradeep Bhandari who actually goes on the ground to capture the emotions of people and this is where he stood out from others who were more of armchair analysts predicting outcomes from air-conditioned rooms.
In fact Pradeep caught my eye when I noticed a tweet from Rxecutive Director of IMF for South Asia, Surjit Bhalla. On 5th April 2019, he had mentioned “Jan Ki Baat, in a few short years, has established a reputation as a very credible pollster – Pradeep presented results of extensive polling yesterday on TV. The first opinion poll to suggest a comfortable 300+ for the NDA. We all await 23rd May.”
Getting The Numbers Right
During the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, when most pollsters gave a decisive verdict for either BJP or Congress it was JKB which was closer to the final numbers. This kind of accuracy was possible only if one hits the ground and understands the psyche of voters.
And again during the Jharkhand Assembly polls in 2019, Pradeep Bhandari got it right in the best possible manner. He was the only one predict to decisively that not only BJP is losing power but also CM Raghuvar Das is losing. This made everyone to sit up and say that this youngster deserves a closer look.
It was in the run up to the Delhi Assembly Elections that critics pounded on him for saying that INC would not cross 5% and would not open the account. He was very close to the final numbers too.
Even amidst COVID pandemic times Pradeep Bhandari was firm that RLD would be the single largest party and would form the government with a wafer-thin majority. I was of the contrarian opinion that BJP would be the single largest party and NDA would form the government. Both of us got 1 right and 1 wrong but in the end, we ended up making the most accurate analysis.
It was before the announcement of GHMC election results that I happened to meet Pradeep in Hyderabad. Both of us had worked on the ground separately since I happen to live in Hyderabad. When we met we shared our vote share numbers and both of us were in the same range.
The 2021 Assembly Elections
Pradeep and I decided to collaborate for the 2021 elections. I decided to extensively hit the ground in Tamil Nadu while he was sweating it out in Bengal & Assam. After an insightful analysis on the ground he was bullish on BJP forming the governments in both the states. Unfortunately, and rarely he got it in wrong in Bengal but he was the only pollster to say that Mamata Didi would lose in Nandigram to Suvendhu Adhikari by 2000 votes and in fact she lost by 1956 votes!
In Assam, Pondichery and Kerala JKB got it right while in Tamil Nadu we had predicted an upper limit of 131 seats to DMK alliance, they ended up getting 159 seats.
Some of our predictions were closest. Here are some of the findings we had come out with before the results.
- DMK would lose in Modakuruchi was something unimaginable to anyone in Tamil Nadu since the candidate was a tall female DMK leader and it was considered a fortress.
- BJP’s Vanathi Srinivasan would score over Kamalhasan and INC would be pushed to 3rd place was another big call from Jan Ki Baat.
- At Kovilpatti TTV Dhinakaran would come to 2nd place was something which was a tough call but became a reality.
- We were criticized and condemned for saying that AIADMK would win 5 seats in Madurai district.
- Finally, JKB was the only agency to say that Seeman’s party would get 7% and final tally was 6.6%.
Our call was that Tamil Nadu elections were closer than what every other agency was predicting and it did come true when the vote share difference was hardly 4%.
The 5 State Elections
As early as in November in a private conversation, Pradeep was confident that AAP would emerge as single largest party. I was surprised by his prediction. But as the days passed by he was sanguine that AAP would have comfortable majority. The accuracy of his final prediction is a testimony to his work on the ground and that of the team of JKB. In hindsight we could safely conclude after seeing the final numbers that with each phase of opinion poll from November 2021 till the exit poll in March 2022 his prediction was the closest to reality.
JKB was completely correct in the Uttar Pradesh exit poll. In Punjab, the JKB exit polls put the vote percentage of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) between 39%-43%. AAP got 42% votes in the election result. Here also ‘Jan ki Baat’ proved to be completely correct. Similarly, in Goa Jan Ki Baat exit poll the vote share of BJP alliance was 31%-33%, in the election results also BJP got 33.31% votes.
In Uttar Pradesh the area of concern mentioned by Pradeep was in Poorvanchal and after the conclusion of 1st phase he told me in a private conversation that BJP was sweeping the Phase 1 which turned out to be true. I had said 275 seats for BJP+ while many pollsters had gone beyond 290. Pradeep told me that 255 would be a good & safe number for BJP and it did turn out to be true.
The vote share of BJP in Manipur in JKB exit poll was 34-38%, the vote share of BJP in the election result stood at 37.68%. Here too the vote percentage estimate was 100% correct. In this way ‘Jan Ki Baat’ was a complete success in the recent assembly elections of 5 states in terms of number of seats.
The Secret
How was this possible? The secret is that the Jan Ki Baat team speaks to wide demographics of people, and go as deep as possible in the rural areas, because that’s where the voters are.
Pradeep Bhandari has also written in detail in the book ‘Modi Vijaygatha’ on how the country chose Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister in 2019. His hard work can be understood only from this book. They are constantly touring the ground and challenging the agencies doing the survey from the AC room. This time most of the agencies talked about the formation of the Aam Aadmi Party government in Punjab, but the way the Aam Aadmi Party reached the unexpected seat number of 92, only ‘Jan Ki Baat’ could estimate a number that was close to it – 88.
From the north to south and the west to north-east, JKB has made giant strides by understanding the voter’s psyche proving to be the best in the game.
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Calling Out TNM’s Explainer On Halal: Reeks Of Hypocrisy, Conveniently Neglects Dangers Posed By Halal
On 5th April 2021, leftist digital media outlet The News Minute (TNM) published an article in which it claimed to ‘exactly explain’ what Halal certification means.
As always, the TNM article peddled half-truths under the cloak of being ‘secular’ overlooking the dangers that Halal poses.
The article goes on to make a case for Halal saying that ‘halal just means that the products are hygienic and non toxic.’
“The halal certification guarantees that the food is unadulterated and is also prepared in accordance with Islamic law”, the article read citing a Muslim professor from Osmania University.
The article also cleverly distorts the imposition of an Islamic practice on non-Muslims by turning the table against those resisting the imposition.
“This hate propaganda has confused many who genuinely do not understand what halal certification means”, the article read.
Worse, the article goes on to justify the Islamic practice of blowing into food, at a time when COVID-appropriate behaviour is being emphasized from all quarters.
It goes on to peddle a propaganda against those resisting the Islamic hegemony over non-vegetarian food with their usual dog-whistles like “Hindutva”, “right-wing BJP” and so on.
This article on Halal by TNM reeks of hypocrisy and exposes that its principles of – diversity, inclusion, social justice, secularism, gender equality, resisting hegemony – are only directed to deride only one particular faith.
So, here’s what the TNM explainer on Halal didn’t tell you or conveniently overlooked.
1. Halal Is Islamic Hegemony Over Non-Muslims
The Halal sign can be seen in almost every restaurant today. For a meat to be halal, the slaughterer must be a Muslim male. He must recite Islamic prayers while slaughtering, and the head of the animal must be aligned towards Kaaba during the slaughter.
Imagine you are a non-Muslim going to a restaurant to have non-vegetarian food. With most of the restaurants declaring that they follow the halal method of slaughtering, you don’t have the choice to eat meat that is not slaughtered in the halal way. You will only have to eat the meat that was cut by a Muslim man in the Muslim way.
This shows how a significant Muslim population is able to impose their religious beliefs over a non-Muslim population.
By imposing Halal, native culinary diversity is killed ultimately leading to monoculturalism, as is the case with Islamic society.
But TNM will not talk about how Islamic practices like Halal are threaning cultural diversity while they keep ranting about ‘Hindu hegemony threatening tribals’, cultural appropriation of folk deities by Brahmins and so on.
2. Halal Killing Is Animal Cruelty
Unlike Jhatka, where the head of the animal is severed with one blow with a sharp object, Halal tortures an animal to death until the last drop of blood has been drained out.
In the Halal method of slaughtering, the animal or the bird is killed by cutting through its jugular vein, the carotid artery and the windpipe that drains out all the blood, leading to its slow death.
The barbarity that the innocent animals are put through is unimaginable. Watch the video below at your own discretion.
3. Halal Effectively Discriminates Non-Muslims
Since Halal meat can only be cut by Muslim men, non-Muslims are effectively shunned out of employment and doing business. If restaurants declare themselves to be Halal compliant, Hindu, Sikh and Christian butchers, in particular, will find no demand for their products, thus leading to the monopolisation of the meat business by Muslims.
Many large food chains are Halal-only. In 2019, McDonalds India confirmed that all their outlets serve ONLY HALAL meat.
If every other eatery imposes Halal, which is already happening, it will inevitably lead to Islamization of food as it directly attacks the culinary choices of non-Muslims.
4. Halal Is A Misogynistic Practice
How does it matter if a meat is cut by a man or woman? Afterall, it is going to be consumed by everyone.
“Why can’t a Muslim woman chant the Islamic prayer and cut the the meat?” asked no left-liberal ever.
The cutting of meat, though being a secular act, will be seen as a custom or practice inherent to the faith in the case of Halal by the likes of TNM. Questioning it would be ‘haraam’, forbidden.
But they will all poke their nose and raise their flag of rebellion championing gender justice into a sacred pilgrimage site like Sabarimala, because why not! Hindus are secular and only Hindus should be secular.
4. Halal Funds Islamic Terror
Unlike Islamic countries, India does not have a government body that issues Halal certification. It is done by different bodies like the Jamiat Ulama-e-Hind, Global Islamic Shariah Services (GISS), and Halal India Private Limited.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Hind is notorious for providing legal assistance to terrorists and murderers. The legal cell of JUH had fought for the accused in the 7/11 Mumbai train blasts, the 2006 Malegaon blasts and the Aurangabad Arms haul case.
There are several other cases that has been listed on the JUH’s website which it is fighting for on those accused of terrorism.
This includes several Lashkar-e-Taiba and ISIS conspiracy cases. The organization is also legally aiding those accused in the Ahmedabad Serial Blast Case 2008 and the 26/11 Mumbai attack case (Syed Zabiuddin v/s State of Maharashtra).
The JUH has been successful in getting some of the terror accused acquitted with more than 192 acquittals since 2007.
Many of them were not acquitted because they were found innocent but due to technicality or inaction or poor police investigation.
And guess what? It is the non-Muslims who are inadvertently funding the activities of JUH by eating at Halal restaurants or using Halal products.
It is not just TNM. Many of their brethren in the media space with the same ideological and political leanings have been trying to buttress or white-wash if atrocities are committed by one particular community. It can be seen happening with the incident in Gorakhnath Temple where a Muslim youth brandished a weapon and attacked policemen shouting ‘Allahu Akbar’. The stark difference and the ‘secular’ bias can be seen in how they covered the man who opened fire at Delhi’s Jamia University and the Gorakhnath Temple incident.
While it is an individual/organization’s discretion to voice for issues that they hold dear, it is dishonest to take people for a ride giving them half-truths while coming across as a ‘reputed’, ‘credible’, ‘unbiased’ media.
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