Yesterday, K Pawan Kalyan of Andhra’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) party met with the leader of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and former A.P chief minister of Andhra Pradesh (CM of undivided Andhra Pradesh as well as post-bifurcation/residual state of Andhra), N Chandrababu Naidu at the latter’s home. The meeting that took place yesterday, January 8 between the leaders of the principle Andhra Pradesh opposition parties, was projected as a “formal” one, signifying a higher degree of an “official” political cooperation between Naidu and Pawan, rather than an informal exchange of personal political opinions. Political analysts see this as a significant move towards the possibility of a near-future alliance between the long standing, seasoned, battle ready TDP led by Naidu and the relatively new, young and energetic JSP led by Pawan Kalyan ahead of the 2024 Andhra Pradesh elections.

If there is indeed a pre-poll “official” alliance between the two parties or at least an open indication (both leaders announcing it in their political rallies) of a formal understanding between the two parties, it could be a serious set back for current Andhra C.M and YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) leader, YS Jagan Reddy.

It is note worthy that both the Andhra leaders decided to meet in the Telangana capital, Hyderabad where both own homes. Pawan Kalyan went over to Naidu’s residence in Jubilee Hills, Hyderabad to discuss the current political situation in light of the Jagan Reddy government’s recent “ban” on all public meetings & rallies ahead of the A.P state eldctions in early 2024. All opposition parties will be impacted by what the people view as a draconian measure and an immature,vengeful attempt at stifling the opposition’s voice in the state, by Jagan Reddy and his YSRCP party.

In the previous 2019 Andhra state elections, political pundits had hinted at one of the causes for the TDP’s less-than-anticipated vote share leading to its defeat by the YSRCP – a split in the TDP’s traditional vote share among the more educated sections of society on account of the entry of the new JSP party led by Pawan.

Although the TDP aims at targeting all sections of society as most Indian political parties tend to do, it is popular among the more educated and those who place high value on job and developmental prospects in the state – the middle classes, backward classes (BCs) and the other backward classes (OBCs) who dream of a better, more dignified future for their children rather than banking on “welfare” schemes. On the other end of the spectrum is a typical strategy followed by the Congress party and its allies or its off-shoots/ break away factions, which tend to focus heavily on free goods & services, welfare schemes and special offers for the poor and the minorities, which may provide temporary relief but have not yet proven to be a long-term solution for job creation, income generation and poverty alleviation.

YS Jagan Reddy’s party, the YSR congress party (YSRCP) is an break away faction of the Congress party in A.P, of which Jagan’s father YS Rajasekhar Reddy, was an elected leader. In the 2019 A.P state elections, while Jagan Reddy was able to focus on and secure the votes of the scheduled classes and the minorities with a heady cocktail mix of welfare schemes and free money typical of Congress party election tactics, Chandrababu Naidu’s blend of welfarism coupled with fiscally responsible spending and a development agenda for the newly bifurcated A.P state reached the youth and other targeted sections but… this previously united vote share was split by the entry of Pawan Kalyan’s new JSP party, which had made similar promises.

Now with the coming together of Naidu and Pawan, both seeking the support of the BJP, the opposition in A.P appears stronger, making Jagan Reddy nervous about the next A.P state elections scheduled for early 2024. Over the last two years, Pawan Kalyan has openly declared that he would not allow the opposition vote to be fractured or split, indicating his willingness to cooperate with both the TDP and the BJP. Naidu’s TDP has also shown a willingness to work together with the BJP and the JSP. Both leaders also publicly supported each other when Jagan unreasonable behaviour and diktats caused hindrances to each other’s political rallies and meetings. The BJP does not yet have a significant presence in A.P while its numbers are increasing in neighboring Telangana. The Andhra unit of the BJP is taking its time, to weigh in on a four pronged choice – an officially announced partnership with Pawan’s JSP, a partnership with or outside support to Naidu’s TDP, a pre-poll partnership with or outside support to both the TDP and the JSP…or a continued status quo with the incumbent YSRCP, with which the BJP is neither officially linked with or openly opposed to.

Jagan has a lot at stake in the upcoming elections. His top aide, Vijay Sai Reddy and himself, are currently out on bail on a large number of CBI registered cases against them for criminal misconduct, misappropriation of givernment property and money laundering. Thus far, the most politically significant worries for Jagan/ factors working against him, among other smaller ones, are:

1) Jagan had the unmistakable support of the Christians in A.P, as he himself like the rest of his family, is a Christian. However he may not be able to count on it without renewed efforts because his brother-in-law, a missionary Christian priest “Brother” Anil Kumar, is no longer offering him the level of support Jagan could count on, in the previous 2019 elections. The apparent rift in the relationship between the siblings, YS Jagan Reddy and YS Sharmila Reddy led to the creation of a separate “YS” party in the neighboring Telugu state of Telangana. While YS Jagan runs the YSRCP party in Andhra Pradesh, Sharmila runs the YSRTP party in Telangana with the support of her christian missionary husband. With an open split within the state’s politically active christian family, the christian vote in A.P can no longer be taken for granted.

2) Jagan is blamed for Andhra’s huge debt run up by his fiscally imbalanced, irresponsible spending on his much publicized “welfare” schemes. The fiscal deficit can be seen and experienced in problems like the poor conditions of roads everywhere, the structure and governance of government institutions like schools and hospitals etc.

3) Educational, Business, entrepreneurial and investment opportunities are drying up in the state, as most private players including those who had come forward during the previous TDP party’s regime, are now hesitant to risk their money in a state where law and order is perceived to be less than ideal coupled with rampant corruption and an environment not conducive for business ventures. Understanbly, the lack of job opportunities in the state has caused disappointment and frustration among the young and restless.

4) Jagan’s mismagement of the state’s finances has also led to an unpleasant reality for all government employees, who had supported his party in the 2019 election. Complaints across all government departments and all levels of government service, including senior officials, reflect late or partial monthly salary payments and pensions causing hardship yo all impacted employees.

5) Among the farming communities of which animal husbandry/ dairy is a part, there is unhappiness over Jagan’s move to cajole farmers to sell their dairy products to the Amul corporation instead of traditional Andhra-based companies like Vijaya, Model, Heritage, Dodla and several other small, medium sized and large protifable A.P based businesses.

6) The people of north coastal Andhra are also displeased with Jagan and his Party’s acts of land grabbing of vast tracts of ecologically sensitive environments in the greater Vishakapatnam area and its surroundings. The role of Jagan’s government in the intent to privatize the Vizag (Vishakapatnam) Steel Plant, supposedly a profitable public sector unit (PSU), leading to a negative impact for related ancillary services and the local economy, is another of Jagan’s actions that north coastal Andhra does not appreciate.

7) The common man’s perception of the deteriorating law & order situation under Jagan’s autocratic rule and the rise in corruption and political favours involving bribes at all levels may not result in a favourable political image for Jagan.

8) Jagan along with his top honchos control a state-run liquor enterprise, a huge money spinner for him and his party while depriving the people and the state of the choices and the profits resulting from healthy competition among private businesses. Incidentally, Jagan’s top leaders are caught up in the infamous Delhi liquor scam.

9) Among the educated, most people disagree with Jagan’s dictatorial attitude and his blatant disregard for the resolutions of and the judgements passed by the A.P high court. Jagan has earned much ill repute by constantly engaging in a war of words and actions with the state’s judicial authorities. He hires expensive lawyers from Delhi at the expense of an already beleaguered state treasury, to constantly fight trivial cases and judgements on cases, not ruled in his favour.

10) A section of the Hindu community has also taken note of damage to temples and temple deities along with increased, emboldened Christian conversion efforts in the state reminding the people of a similar trend in rampant Christian activities in the 2004-2009 period when YS Jagan’s father, YS Rajasekhar Reddy was the chief minister. Many have speculated that the larger, undivided state of Andhra Pradesh saw the most number of openly conducted conversion events in its history under the leadership of the first Christian CM in A.P, Rajasekhar Reddy, with the tacit approval of the Congress party’s Sonia Gandhi in Delhi.

11) Private enterprises including educational institutions and hospitals are bullied and imposed with ‘surveys’, searches and unreasonable conditions for their continued operations. This has impacted all such businesses as well as the large number of ordinary people employed by them. People complain that the blatant discrimination and systemic bullying has an overtly religious and/or casteist bias to it, at levels that the state has not experienced before.

12) To top it all, aside from an ailing state economy and financial debt, Jagan has still not accepted the previously declared state capital of the recently bifurcated state. It is almost nine years now since the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh into Telangana and Andhra. Andhra still does not have an officially declared state capital because Jagan Reddy has refused to acknowledge and accept the previously declared capital of Amaravathi in the Vijayawada-Guntur vicinity, pitching instead, for an impractical, unrealistic 3-capital theory.

In light of a significanct loss of trust in Jagan’s governance and his government’s blatant disregard for the rule of the land, will A.P’s opposition including the BJP stand united or will Jagan manage to divide the voters yet again, on religious and caste lines?

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