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Assistant Expenditure Officer Alleges Threats By RO To Favour DMK Candidate A Raja, Appeals to Chief Electoral Officer

By
The Commune
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An Assistant Expenditure Observer in the Nilgiris Lok Sabha constituency has raised serious allegations against Returning Officer M Aruna, accusing her of bias and favoritism towards DMK Candidate A Raja. In a petition addressed to the Chief Electoral Officer, Saravanan, the assistant expenditure observer has sought the intervention of the Election Commission to ensure a fair election process in Nilgiris.

The petitioner claims that Aruna has been actively attempting to manipulate accounting procedures to benefit A Raja, and alleges facing difficulties for not aligning with the Returning Officer’s bias towards the DMK candidate.

According to the assistant expenditure observer, there is a significant disparity between the expenditures recorded in the Shadow Observation Register of their team and the candidate A Raja’s official book of accounts. He alleges that Aruna has been pressuring him to decrease the recorded expenditure of A Raja, indicating a clear attempt to influence the election in favor of the DMK candidate.

Speaking out against the alleged harassment, Saravanan stated, “The expenditure booked in the shadow observation register of our team differs significantly from the book of accounts of the candidate A Raja (DMK). To decrease the recorded expenditure, the Returning Officer is repeatedly harassing me and personally scrutinizing every expenditure of that particular candidate, speaking on behalf of the candidate and attempting to control the accounting procedure in favor of A Raja.”

The assistant expenditure observer further detailed instances of coercion and intimidation by Aruna, claiming that on 9 April 2024, all records of A Raja’s expenditures were forcefully taken to her camp office, and the Shadow Observer Register, crucial for monitoring election expenditures, was confiscated. Saravanan alleges that he was threatened with dire consequences if any adverse actions were taken against A Raja due to expenditure bookings.

“In the higher order of misuse of her power, on 9 April 2024, all the records of that candidate were called up to her camp office and the shadow observer register (the heart and soul of the election expenditure watching) was forcefully received from me and photocopies and further she warned me to act under her control and not for the observer. Further, she intimated that I would be killed if any adverse things happened to that candidate because of the expenditure booking. And ordered me to find ways for that candidate’s favour to reduce the booked expenditure by setting aside all other prime duties entrusted to me,” Saravanan said in the letter.

In his letter to the Chief Electoral Officer, Saravanan highlighted the misuse of power by the Returning Officer and urged for immediate action to uphold the integrity of the electoral process in Nilgiris.

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“PM Modi’s Roadshow Was A Circus Meant For West Mambalam People”: DMK MP Dayanidhi Maran Yet Again Targets Brahmins

By
The Commune
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Three-time MP and DMK’s candidate for the Central Chennai Lok Sabha constituency for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, Dayanidhi Maran, called the Prime Minister’s roadshow in Chennai’s Pondy Bazaar area a “circus”.

Speaking to the Times Of India, when asked about the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent roadshow in Chennai, Maran dismissed the notion of a significant “Modi Factor” in the city. He said, “I think this new generation will not be aware of it. Earlier in our generation, we used to have the circus called the Gemini Circus or the Great Bombay Circus, it happens once in a while. All of us go to the circus and watch the show. Similarly, Modi gave a show only for the West Mambalam people, not for the entire Chennai.”

Dayanidhi Maran making such a statement seemingly indicates him targeting the Brahmin community once again.

When asked if the fight was between DMK and the BJP in Central Chennai, Maran arrogantly replied, “Definitely not. It is DMK versus ADMK. BJP is not anywhere on the scene. Probably they’ll be competing with NOTA. That’s how low they are. Because they can’t. See this is all the inflated narrative made by BJP to look strong. How can they grow from 3%? They’ve done nothing. Has the prime minister delivered anything for Tamil Nadu or any of Chennai or anything? There’s no projects.”

Maran claimed that the public response to his campaign was satisfying, attributing it to the fulfillment of promises made by Chief Minister MK Stalin over the past three years. He said the schemes like the ₹1000 empowerment programme for women ‘resonated well’ with the electorate. 

In reality, Dayanidhi Maran has been questioned by his constituents for his unfulfilled promises. Also, DMK candidates who have been campaigning all over the state have been boycotted and questioned over the same ₹1000 for women scheme as many women across the state have not received it – the state told them they were not eligible for the scheme. 

Central Chennai, Maran noted, mirrors the diversity of India, encompassing various religious, linguistic, and ethnic communities. He reiterated the DMK’s ‘commitment to secularism and inclusive governance’, emphasising their vision for a pluralistic India. 

Ironically, the DMK is known for its hate towards North Indians, calling them fools and toilet cleaners – this was especially said by Dayanidhi Maran in the past. Critics wonder if abusing migrant workers and people from other communities and geographies is the DMK model of inclusive governance. 

Dayanidhi Maran has earlier made very casteist jibes against Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. He used words like “Unga thopanaar” to indicate Sitharaman’s father (in a language/dialect used by Brahmins in TN) when he was speaking in Parliament in February 2024 about the central government aid to TN for the floods.

Earlier in 2023, he addressed Sitharaman as “Nirmala mami” during a “day-long” fast against NEET and then pretended to have said it inadvertently. The word Mami is used as a slur and in derogatory fashion especially by Dravidian ideologues when addressing Tamil Brahmin women in Tamil Nadu. It is noteworthy that Dayanidhi Maran is himself married a Tamil Brahmin from The Hindu family and his mother, wife of Murasoli Maran, the father of Dayanidhi Maran and nephew of M Karunanidhi was also a Tamil Brahmin woman.

In context with the jibe at PM Modi’s roadshow, a few days ago Maran called Annamalai a joker and pretended not to be aware of him.

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Is Congress Caste Census Project A Part Of Vatican’s Joshua Project?

By
The Commune
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The Congress has been batting for the caste census for quite some time now. Their leader Rahul Gandhi time and again has emphasized the party’s commitment to conducting a caste census if elected, aiming to abolish the 50% cap on reservations. In the recently released election manifesto of the Congress, the party called it necessary to understand the socio-economic conditions of the marginalized. 

But this constant push for the caste census by the Congress raises serious doubts. An organisation named Joshua Project caught our attention. 

What Is The Joshua Project?

It is supposedly a “research initiative” to identify how many people across the world are not followers of Christ (Christians). Is Rahul Gandhi’s proposed caste census aligned with the goals of the Joshua Project, an initiative linked to the Vatican aimed at converting non-Christian populations in India to Christianity? The Joshua Project seeks to compile data on various ethnic groups to facilitate conversion efforts. Concerns have been raised that data collected during the caste census could potentially be utilized by Christian missionaries operating under the Joshua Project to strategize conversion efforts. 

Their website states “Joshua Project is a research initiative seeking to highlight the people groups of the world with the fewest followers of Christ. Accurate, updated people group information is critical for understanding and completing the Great Commission. Revelation 5:9 and 7:9-10 show that there will be some from every tribe, tongue, nation and people before the Throne. Joshua Project seeks to answer the questions that result from the Great Commission’s call to make disciples among every nation or people group. Who are the people groups of the world? Which ones still need initial church-planting in their midst? How can we pray for them? What ministry resources are available to reach the least-reached?”

This organization, headquartered in the United States, focuses on Christian missions. Their website serves as a database containing information about ethnic groups worldwide who have not yet embraced Christianity.

Here is what their global dashboard looks like – it gives an overview of the number of groups across the world, by region, continent, and religious affiliation. Looking at the population numbers on this website, it seems as if the data has been updated till 2023.

They meticulously document various details including caste, language, creed, population size, and more. Additionally, they track the progress of missionary groups, noting how many ethnic groups have been reached, how many remain unreached, and the population statistics of both reached and unreached groups. The level of information is so detailed that it can be narrowed down to a country, encompassing every sect, subsect, and ethnic group within each region, ranging from states and cities to towns and villages. The data is incredibly comprehensive, capturing even the minutest details.

The website provides prayer resources, and vision resources akin to those found on typical missionary websites. The website also provides maps highlighting unreached people groups, often referred to as Frontier People Groups. These groups, as described on their website, typically consist of Muslim populations resistant to conversion. You can read more here.

They also have a dedicated website for reaching the “unreached” at http://alliancefortheunreached.org. The website provides details such as guides and fact sheets to share with these “unreached populations” (to those interested), providing resources to facilitate engagement and outreach efforts.

Where Does India Stand In This “Project”?

Regarding the specifics of India, you can find detailed information on the Joshua Project website here. It’s unclear if these figures are from 2023 or earlier, as there’s a note at the bottom indicating that the data is sourced from the latest Indian census. But going by the data on their global dashboard which coincided with 2023 data. The areas marked in red on the map indicate “low progress”.

When we zoom in on India, the data on the Joshua Project website is categorized into various segments such as people groups, states, communities, and religions. Exploring further into a specific state like Tamil Nadu reveals a wealth of information. The sheer number of people groups listed is staggering, something a layman will not know or have access to such information. 

Within this section, there are listings for various people groups, and the sheer volume is astounding. Many of these groups were previously unknown to me, comprising around three-fourths of the total. It’s conceivable that this extensive dataset was compiled from census data, offering insights into the multitude of diverse groups within the region. Here is just one part of these people groups.

If we take an example of this group called “Brahmin Christians” – as weird as it sounds, these people were Hindus, Brahmins at that who had converted to Christianity. Here are the details of this group.

Similarly, there are multiple groups within a state and details of how this specific group is spread across the country with numbers in each state, what languages this group speaks, etc. There are “resources” on this page as well. 

What has been produced here is just a very small part of the details available on the website. If we dig deeper, finer details will emerge for every region. 

However, the way Rahul Gandhi and the Congress are pushing for the caste census makes one wonder if they are actually trying to help this “research initiative” in some way.

If the Congress/I.N.D.I Alliance comes to power, it seems likely that they will conduct the caste census using taxpayer funds effectively supporting the goals of the Joshua Project, particularly in a country like India, where conversion efforts have faced challenges in recent years, especially in the Modi tenure.

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100 Promises In 500 Days – TN BJP Chief & Coimbatore LS Candidate Annamalai Releases Manifesto For Coimbatore

By
The Commune
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Tamil Nadu BJP Chief and Coimbatore Lok Sabha Candidate, K Annamalai, unveiled the party’s manifesto for the Coimbatore constituency, promising an ambitious agenda of 100 initiatives to be fulfilled within 500 days if elected. The manifesto, titled “My Dream is Our Coimbatore,” outlines a comprehensive vision for the region’s development across various sectors.

Some of the key promises include:

  1. Establishment of the 2nd Indian Institute of Management (IIM) in Tamil Nadu in Coimbatore.
  2. Setting up branch offices of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) in Coimbatore.
  3. Operationalizing 250 public dispensaries in the city.
  4. Introducing 10 new trains from Coimbatore to spiritual destinations across the country.
  5. Establishing three round-the-clock food banks in the memory of Kamaraj, the former Chief Minister, with government and private contributions.
  6. Expediting the completion of Coimbatore Metro projects.
  7. Expanding Coimbatore-Kanyakumari and Coimbatore-Thiruvananthapuram (Kochi route) routes with new Vande Bharat trains.
  8. Upgrading the Coimbatore-Trichy road to 6 lanes and expediting the 8-lane project between Coimbatore-Karur.
  9. Constructing a new bus terminal between Trichy-Avinasi road under the Smart City project.
  10. Constructing new flyovers at seven locations to alleviate traffic congestion.
  11. Establishing an agricultural export center with refrigeration facilities.
  12. Implementing the Anaimalai-Nallar Project.
  13. Restore River Noyal with its tributary Kausika rivers and improve Coimbatore’s water resources.
  14. Establishing a high-quality cancer treatment hospital.
  15. Setting up an international sports ground in Coimbatore under the ‘Khelo India’ project.
  16. Renovating ancient temples in Coimbatore under the central government’s ‘Prasad’ scheme.
  17. Establishing a heritage museum of international standards.
  18. Establishing youth hostels for tourists.
  19. Auditing fund allocations for Smart City projects and taking action against irregularities.
  20. Setting up People’s Grievance Redressal Centres in all six assembly offices under the Coimbatore constituency.
  21. Implementing the TEX scheme to benefit power loom owners.
  22. Establishing an Automotive Corridor and urging the Defence Ministry to manufacture semiconductors in the Coimbatore Defence Corridor.
  23. Setting up four Central Government Navodaya Schools.
  24. Establishing a branch training center of the National Sports Authority of India, Patiala (SAI Patiala), one of the largest sports training centres in Asia, will be set up in Coimbatore to ensure that sportsmen and women athletes of the region get excellent training.

Annamalai emphasized that these initiatives aim to transform Coimbatore into an international standard city in five years. 

(with inputs from DailyThanthi)

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The Hindu Journo Shoots Himself In The Foot Sharing His Restaurant Bill; BJP Leader SG Suryah Exposes And Schools Him On GST

By
The Commune
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Once again, some journalists in the country have made a mockery of themselves. This time The Hindu’s journo Serish Nanisetti exposed his knowledge or the lack of it on GST. 

On 11 April 2024, Serish shared a picture of the bill from an Eid dinner he had with four of his friends. The picture showed that CGST and SGST were charged at a rate of 9%, totalling ₹1116 each, with the final amount being ₹7316. He wrote, “Went for Eid dinner with four friends. The government also joined us at the table.”  

Responding to his post, Tamil Nadu State Secretary of the Bharatiya Janata Party exposed the fact that Serish had been to a high-end/luxury restaurant and schooled him on the basics of GST. 

Suryah wrote, “Commoners go to restaurants & pay 5% GST. Rich people like you go to star hotels & pay 18% GST.

Note:

•5% GST for AC & Non-AC restaurants.

•18% GST in restaurants located on the premises of a club or guest houses & in hotels where room tariff is more than ₹7,500.”

It is noteworthy that all states in the GST Council were in agreement when they established this rate for different categories of hotels. It is believed that 98% of the public frequent restaurants that charge GST at 5%.

It is a fact that before the implementation of GST, customers were paying various charges, including a 10% service charge, a 14.5% service tax, a 0.5% cess applied three times, and an additional 14.5% VAT (in places like Puducherry). However, with the introduction of GST, these complexities have been streamlined, resulting in a simplified system with a uniform 5% tax rate on restaurants and an 18% tax rate on luxury hotels.

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DMK-Buttressing Journo Hypes Up DMK Coimbatore MP Candidate As Doctorate In Journalism, Ph.D Thesis Was On Jayalalithaa

By
The Commune
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A few days ago, NDTV shared an interview with the DMK candidate from Coimbatore, Ganapathy Rajkumar on their social media (X) handle. 

Later, “journalist” and JNU alumnus, Arvind Gunasekar wrote a comment quoting this video. He described Ganapathy Rajkumar as, “Ganapathy Rajkumar is a calm and composed person, with proven administrative record. He was the fifth Mayor of Coimbatore. He also has a Doctorate in Journalism. Ground situation of Coimbatore is way different from what’s being projected by National Media.”

Netizens, surprised by the “PhD in Journalism” claim did some research on Ganapathy Rajkumar and the results were mind-blowing!

In reality, Mayor Rajkumar completed his doctoral thesis “Emergence of Jayalalithaa as a Mass Leader.” The study involved assessing Jayalalitha’s leadership traits through perception ratings in five cities, with a sample size of 510 responses. He was awarded the doctoral degree by Bharathiar University in 2015, with the viva voce conducted by Periyar University in Salem. Ganapathy Rajkumar’s project guide for this research was C Pichandy who was the Head of the Department of Communication at PSG College of Arts and Science.

Rajkumar’s research highlights Jayalalithaa’s “unique journey” in Tamil Nadu politics, emphasizing her determination and strategic prowess. He identifies her party, AIADMK, as a movement with significant potential, attributing its success to Jayalalithaa’s leadership and connection with the masses. Rajkumar’s study involved data collection from five district headquarters and villages, using questionnaires to gauge public perception of Jayalalithaa’s leadership qualities. The research, as reported by The New Indian Express, apparently concludes by drawing parallels between Jayalalithaa and other prominent female leaders like Ellen Johnson and Michelle Bachelet and Rajkumar expressed “admiration” for Jayalalithaa’s resilience and character throughout the research process.

It is said that Ganapathy Rajkumar performed a “Gaja puja” for Jayalalithaa, after he successfully defended his thesis, to become the state CM once more. 

https://twitter.com/naiveobserver93/status/1778383133739548721

Upon learning the topic of his Ph.D. thesis, netizens mocked the mindset of someone in politics to obtain a degree by singing praises of a political leader, bordering on sycophancy. 

 

Netizens also mocked Arvind Gunasekar for the endorsement.

 

 

 

It is hilarious to note that the person who obtained a PhD with a thesis on ADMK’s Jayalalithaa is now the DMK candidate in Coimbatore fighting the ADMK. 

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South Chennai BJP Candidate Tamizhisai Soundararajan Criticizes Congress & DMK Govt For Neglecting Kamaraj Memorial

By
The Commune
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Former Telangana & Puducherry Governor and the BJP candidate from South Chennai, Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, has drawn attention to the ill-maintenance of the Kamaraj Memorial, expressing concern over its neglected state. Soundararajan’s remarks came as she observed sugarcane husks piled up in front of the prestigious memorial, prompting her to address the issue publicly.

Speaking to ANI, she said, “Go around, there are dried plants, dried leaves, no maintenance at all. Yesterday to check out the route, I came this side. On seeing this, I stopped the car. Rubbish (garbage), sugarcane husks were heaped in front of this prestigious and emotionally attached place. I came the next morning as well, it was in the same state. This locality comes under my constituency, my campaign tour is this way, and I thought I had to pay homage to him. I should tell them about the pathetic condition of this memorial.” 

Highlighting the stark contrast between the poorly maintained Kamaraj Memorial and the well-kept Karunanidhi Memorial, Soundararajan accused the DMK government of disrespecting the legacy of Kamaraj. She said, “You know how the other memorial, which they built recently, Kalaignar Karunanidhi’s Memorial, you know how it is maintained and how this is maintained. Congress is shameless to have an alliance with these people.” She emphasized Kamaraj’s significant contributions to Tamil Nadu’s progress, particularly in education and the implementation of mid-day meal schemes.

Soundararajan further criticized the Congress party’s leadership, alleging a lack of respect for their late leaders and underscoring their focus on succession politics. She called attention to the importance of preserving the legacies of leaders like Kamaraj, who hold significance beyond party lines.

She remarked, “Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, and Mallikarjun Kharge came this side, they didn’t bother to pay homage to this prestigious leader, a non-corrupt leader, who was the reason for the development of this state, and who gave free education with food. Now they are lauding that they are giving breakfast. This leader set an example to the whole world giving midday meals. When our Hon’ble PM announced demonetisation, he said if Kamaraj were alive, he would have appreciated me because it is a non-corrupt practice. We have the habit of respecting all leaders whether they belong to different ideologies or different parties. I don’t think Kamaraj is only Congress’ pride, he is also the pride of Tamil Nadu…”

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“They’re Tapping My Phone, My Wife’s, Family’s And Friends Including Journos”: TN BJP Head Annamalai Levels Serious Allegations On State Police Intel

By
The Commune
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As the political atmosphere intensifies in the lead-up to the elections, K Annamalai, the BJP state president, has sparked controversy with allegations of phone tapping by the Tamil Nadu police. 

Speaking at a press conference in Coimbatore, Annamalai accused the ruling DMK party of orchestrating intrusive surveillance on himself and his family members.

Announcing the serious allegations, Annamalai stated, “Just see how many Intelligence officers will go to jail after the 2024 elections. I am under extensive surveillance. They are eavesdropping on me, my sister, wife, friends, family members.” 

Drawing parallels with a previous case in Hyderabad where police officers were jailed for snooping on politicians, Annamalai highlighted the gravity of the situation in Tamil Nadu. He said, “They have set up a surveillance unit in Coimbatore and keeping track of me and all those around me, pass on this information to the IG-Intelligence. Such tapped conversations are shared with TRB Raja and DMK’s former minister V Senthilbalaji, who is in jail. Do you think if he monitors from jail they can change the election result?”

He expressed confidence that after the election results, those responsible for the phone tapping would face consequences. He said, “We will come back with all records, all those officers involved must answer. In Hyderabad, they eavesdropped on 2,50,000 cell phones. They destroyed the hard disk containing data on these cell phones. Didn’t they get caught?”  

Speaking about the surveillance and lack of freedom, Annamalai criticized the DMK regime as “draconian.” He also raised concerns about intimidation tactics against industrialists and educational institutions, alleging interference based on intelligence inputs.

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Alt News’ Mohammed Zubair Tries To Whitewash Horrific Badaun Murder, Removes Post Following Warning From Badaun Police

By
The Commune
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On 10th April 2024, Mohammed Zubair, a self styled fact-checker and one of the co-founders of Alt News, removed a post from X platform following a legal warning issued by Badaun Police regarding potentially misleading content. The post in question, authored by Zubair, sought to distort the narrative surrounding the recent tragic murder of two Hindu children in Badaun by individuals named Sajid and Javed.

Zubair attempted to insinuate that the true motive behind the crime had been obscured by the authorities, referencing an incident where the father of the victims allegedly set fire to a motorcycle. This post aimed to misrepresent the circumstances surrounding the heinous crime and stated, “Any update on the motive of the brutal double murder of minors in Badaun by Barber Sajid? The father of the kids on March 24 had set his bike on fire as the real reason behind the murder of the two children was not yet revealed by then.”

(Image Credit: OpIndia)

Responding to his X post, the Badaun Police warned, “In connection with the above case, necessary investigative action is being taken by the local police station Civil Lines. Please do not try to spoil the atmosphere by posting unnecessary things. Legal action will be taken against those who post unnecessary things after investigation.”

Following the homicide, some individuals asserted that the incident stemmed from animosity between the two families. However, the victim’s relatives subsequently contested these allegations, emphasizing that there were no underlying conflicts between them and that they maintained an amicable relationship. In discussions with the press, the father and brother of the deceased disclosed that they frequented Sajid’s salon, the perpetrator, for various grooming services such as haircuts.

On 19 March 2024, UP Police confronted and killed Sajid, the main suspect in the Badaun murder case involving the brutal slaying of two minors, Ayush (13) and Ahaan (6), by having their throats slit with a sharp weapon. The tragic incident unfolded in Baba Colony, where the victims’ mother operated a home-based beauty parlor, and she was alone with her children at the time of the attack. Sajid, aged 22 and the accused, owned a salon across from the beauty parlor, and after closing his shop early, he visited the victims’ residence around 7:30 PM, requesting tea from their mother.

While the mother was occupied with tea preparation, Sajid went upstairs where the children were playing and abruptly assaulted Vinod Singh’s three children with a shaving blade. Two children died instantly, while the third sustained injuries and was hospitalized. The incident occurred near the Mandi Police Station under Civil Lines Police Lines.

Upon hearing the mother’s screams, locals intervened, dragging her out of the house and shutting the door, but Sajid managed to escape. Enraged residents vandalized and set fire to Sajid’s salon and adjacent shops. Despite efforts by the Senior Superintendent of Police (SSP) to calm the situation, tensions escalated due to communal differences, prompting heavy police and paramilitary presence to maintain order. Eventually, Sajid was killed in a police encounter. SSP Priyadarshi ordered the closure of all markets in the city, leading to traffic congestion. The situation is now reportedly under control, with ongoing police monitoring of social media and a conducted flag march. Investigations revealed Sajid frequented the victims’ residence due to the proximity of his salon.

Police recovered a homemade pistol and cartridges during the encounter, and another suspect, apprehended under various charges, is being pursued, including the search for Javed, another suspect connected to the case.

(With Inputs From OpIndia)

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June 4, 2024 – The D Day: Decoding Scenarios And Speculations

By
Nanmozhian
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June 4th 2024 might be a turning point in the post-independence political history of Tamil Nadu. The state of Tamil Nadu goes for Lok Sabha polls to send 39 Members of Parliament on April 19th 2024, the results of which will be published on June 4th 2024. The state is known for giving massive one-sided mandates as it did in 1977,80,84,89,91,96,2004,2014 and 2019. The state had delivered a split verdict only thrice ie 1998,99 and 2009 giving a respectable number of seats to the runners-up. The winner had taken home almost all the seats leaving nothing for the runners-up in the one sided verdicts.

What makes this election unique is the fact that a strong third front ie NDA comprising of BJP, PMK, OPS, AMMK, TMC and several other smaller parties has emerged and fielded candidates in all 39 Lok Sabha constituencies.

A similar experiment was carried out in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when NDA comprising of BJP,PMK,MDMK,DMDK and few smaller parties polled nearly 19% votes and won 2 seats withstanding the ADMK Tsunami which fetched ADMK 37 seats with around 45% votes. The DMK alliance polled around 26% votes but could not win a seat then.

With the break up of ADMK-BJP alliance a few months back, one can be sure about the fact that DMK is sitting pretty like ADMK was in 2014 and the alliance led by it could end up winning a lion’s share of seats this time as well despite widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent DMK state govt in TN. DMK alliance polled 53% votes in 2019 LS polls but could poll only 45% in the assembly elections held in 2021. NDA which polled 30% in 2019 boosted its vote share to 39% in 2021 assembly elections. Given the fact that there is no anti-Modi wave now and there is widespread anti-incumbency now against the Stalin Govt, the author of this piece infers from the ground that DMK alliance will lose anywhere between 6 to 8% in vote share from 2021. DMK alliance as per my estimate is unlikely to cross the 40% mark this time around. It could poll anywhere between 37 to 39% this time.

If ADMK-BJP were united now, they could have reaped the benefit of this swing against DMK and boosted their vote share to more than 45% from 39% in 2021 and won a majority of the seats like they won in 1998. But that is not the case now. However, what would be interesting is how NDA and ADMK are going to fare and share this 45% plus anti-DMK votes among themselves. The way this 45% or more is going to be shared is going to determine the future dynamics of TN politics. Let’s explore the various scenarios that is likely to play out.

Scenario 1: ADMK polling about 30% and NDA gathering 15% vote share

In such a scenario, ADMK president Edappadi Palaniswamy would be the biggest winner and TN BJP President Annamalai would be the biggest loser. EPS polling 30% votes when TTV and OPS are not in ADMK will not only cement his place among the ADMK cadres but also convey that he is better placed than any other leader in the state to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. He will get a big boost ahead of 2026 and many smaller parties will also move towards him. If NDA is stuck at 15%, it will imply that Annamalai was able to increase BJP’s vote share to just 7 to 8% from the perceived 3% now as analysts will point out PMK (5%) and TTV-OPS (3%) contributed about 7 to 8% and Annamalai could manage only 7 to 8%. NDA with 15% would not have won any seats as well. Clamour to replace Annamalai as TN BJP President will gather steam and he in all probability will be rehabilitated as a RS MP by his strongest supporter Sri Narendra Modi. And with this, the dream of many a Tamilian to have an alternate to the big two Dravidian parties will suffer a major setback. Once Annamalai is replaced, BJP will start piggy backing on the big two parties again like Congress is doing since 1967.

Scenario 2: NDA polling 30% and ADMK stuck at 15%

In this scenario, BJP will emerge as the second largest party and Annamalai will emerge as the firebrand leader to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. In this scenario, NDA might have even won 7 to 12 seats as well. There will be a big rebellion in ADMK post this result and the pro-BJP leaders within ADMK will bray for EPS’s blood. A palace coup at Lloyds Road is bound to happen and BJP in all probability will cannibalise most of ADMK cadres, MLAs and leaders in the run up to 2026. A TTV or OPS victory at Theni or Ramnad could accelerate the disintegration of ADMK as well. Both will emerge stronger and their comeback chances to prominence will brighten all the more.

Scenario 3: NDA polling 25% vote share and ADMK managing 20%

Here again, NDA polling 25% will be considered as a big win for Annamalai and put them in poll position ahead of 2026. ADMK will have no other option but to be a junior ally to BJP in 2026 or the alliance will be on BJP’s term. EPS could well get replaced by a pro-BJP leader in ADMK and a long-term relationship like BJP and SS had for decades in Maharashtra could blossom between both the parties. Depending on how badly ADMK has fared in the 10 Pandya region seats, the strength of OPS and TTV will increase accordingly. Weaker the performance of ADMK in these 10 seats, stronger OPS and TTV become.

Scenario 4: Both NDA and ADMK polling between 20-23%

In such a scenario, both EPS and Annamalai can claim victory. EPS will be happy that he managed to retain the core voters of ADMK  and Annamalai can be happy about the fact that he grew the party from sub 3% to 15% plus. EPS and Annamalai could reconcile their differences and go on to fight 26 as equal allies and try to dethrone Stalin. Or if their egos are too strong, they can still fight it out going alone in 26 against Stalin and based on 26 outcome, new dynamics could set in for TN politics. This scenario 4 could be a Goldilocks scenario for DMK as no clear winner will emerge to take on Stalin in 26 and if both EPS and Annamalai decide to go solo in 2026.

Scenario 5: One of the two, ADMK or NDA crossing 35% decisively and the other collapses below 10%

In this scenario, whoever crosses the 35% mark may end up winning a sizeable number of seats as well or even win majority of the seats pushing DMK to the second place. This scenario is a wave scenario where a strong pro-Modi wave sets in or a strong anti-incumbency wave against Stalin sets in favouring ADMK big time. Whoever can pull of this turnaround will in all probability win 2026 as well as momentum will be in his favour and the other who goes down to less than 10% will pass onto oblivion.

Any of these scenarios can play out as nobody can second guess what is in voter’s mind. The author of this piece feels the probability of Scenario 3 is on the higher side – 50% chance it will play out. But it is always tough to predict TN voters given their ability to generate electoral waves and tsunamis.

However, 2024 is very crucial for EPS, Annamalai, OPS and TTV. It is a do or die battle for all four. It is a fight between Annamalai and EPS for the second place. DMK is extremely lucky enough to be sitting pretty despite a strong anti-incumbency against its government. Will DMK be lucky again in 2026 or a decisive mandate will be delivered by Tamilians to decide on the leader who can dethrone DMK in 2026? Is it going to be an EPS vs Stalin affair in 2026 or Stalin vs Annamalai battle in 2026?

June 4th 2024 will throw up the answer to this billion dollar question?

(Nanmozhian is an entrepreneur based out of Chennai.)

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