A decadal analysis of official demographic data has revealed that Kerala’s Hindu and Christian communities are now recording more deaths than births annually, resulting in a negative Natural Growth Rate (NGR), while the state’s overall population growth remains positive due to the Muslim community continuing to record higher births than deaths, as reported in The New Indian Express.
The findings are based on birth and death data published in the Kerala government’s annual Vital Statistics Reports between 2014 and 2023 by the Department of Economics and Statistics.
According to the latest available figures for 2023, Kerala’s overall Natural Growth Rate, calculated as births minus deaths per 100 population, stood at 0.249%. However, the Hindu community recorded an NGR of -0.115%, while the Christian community recorded -0.084%.
Demographers note that a negative natural growth rate indicates that a community is no longer replacing its population through births alone, with deaths outnumbering births over a given period.
The data showed that 2023 was the second consecutive year in which Hindus recorded a negative natural growth rate. The Hindu NGR first entered negative territory in 2022 at -0.080% before declining further to -0.115% in 2023.
The Christian community has been in negative territory for a longer period. Christians first recorded a negative natural growth rate in 2021 at -0.095%, and the figure stood at -0.084% in 2023.
Commenting on the trend, Dr. Anil Chandran S., Assistant Professor in the Department of Demography at the University of Kerala, reportedly said that Hindu and Christian communities were leading Kerala’s broader demographic transition towards a negative natural growth rate.
He stated that population decline within these communities had begun among upper-class sections several decades ago and had gradually expanded to wider sections of society.
Dr. Chandran further observed that projections suggested Kerala’s overall natural growth rate could turn negative by 2041.
According to him, as Kerala increasingly becomes an ageing society, the communities that entered negative natural growth territory earlier would likely experience the consequences of demographic decline before others.
While the Muslim community continued to record a positive natural growth rate, the data also showed a steady decline over the past decade.
The Muslim community’s NGR reportedly fell by around 35% between 2014 and 2023, declining from 1.898% to 1.229%.
Dr. Chandran noted that the Muslim community was also following a similar demographic trajectory, though at a slower pace. He reportedly stated that both the birth rate and natural growth rate among Muslims were declining and predicted that the community could also eventually register negative growth within two decades of Kerala’s overall natural growth rate turning negative.
The birth and death figures over the decade illustrate the demographic shift across all three major religious communities in the state.
Among Hindus, births declined from 2,31,031 in 2014 to 1,58,399 in 2023, representing a fall of nearly 31%. During the same period, deaths increased from 1,50,159 to 1,80,971.
Among Christians, births fell by approximately 32%, declining from 83,616 in 2014 to 56,810 in 2023. Meanwhile, deaths increased by 24%, rising from 50,095 to 62,338.
The Muslim community also recorded a decline in births, though at a slower rate. Births fell by 19.3%, from 2,18,437 in 2014 to 1,76,312 in 2023. Deaths increased by 28.1% during the same period, rising from 46,468 to 59,541.
Despite the decline in birth rates and increase in deaths, Muslim births continue to substantially outnumber deaths, allowing the community to maintain a positive natural growth rate and keeping Kerala’s overall natural growth rate above zero.
The data highlights Kerala’s ongoing demographic transition, characterised by falling fertility rates, rising life expectancy, population ageing and slowing population growth across all major communities, with Hindus and Christians already entering a phase where annual deaths exceed births.
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