All opinion polls that I have seen are cautiously opining that BJP getting to 370 on its own in the upcoming 2024 elections is an uphill task although they might end up scoring a little better than their 2019 tally. However, I am sure that BJP will get between 350 to 370 and NDA will cross 400 seats and here is my analysis how this is very much possible if they give their best performance which they seemed to be determined to do through aggressive alliances, blockbuster campaigns and booth level management powered by the significant Modi X factor as always. Let me go through the key states that BJP has to focus on to get to 370 mark.
Starting with the north, the only state where BJP has to push a little harder is Uttar Pradesh. They will definitely sweep there but they have to get almost a 100% strike rate in order to get at least 79 out of the 80 Loksabha seats. Rest of the states in the north are already 100% with BJP and they just have to ensure that nothing goes wrong there in the next 3 months.
In the east, BJP has to put extra effort in West Bengal and Odisha to garner a few more seats than their 2019 tally and take it to 22 from 18 in West Bengal and 12 from 8 in Odisha. Mamata Banerjee seems to be a little bit in her backfoot this time and it was evident from her public outrage on Rahul Gandhi recently. The recent MLA Shahjahan’s issue is turning to a public outrage against TMC which is also a good opportunity for BJP to take advantage of . In Bihar, they should negotiate with its primary ally Nitish Kumar to fight in 24 seats and win all of them compared to 17 that they won earlier. Given Nitish’s situation, he will most probably agree to this arrangement. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar JDU is in the decline and the more seats BJP fights the better for the NDA alliance. They just have get one or two more Jharkhand which is very much possible given they got 12 in 2014 and 11 in 2019. Chattisgarh is with BJP 100% and they don’t have to worry.
Coming to the South, BJP must put in their maximum efforts this time in Tamil Nadu with the best alliances possible and ground reports show that the vote share for BJP is on the rise there powered by the young promising K. Annamalai’s yatra which saw huge turnouts. The recent event of around 16 leaders from AIADMK moving to BJP in Tamil Nadu is going to provide more momentum. It will be very much possible for BJP to garner atleast 5 seats although they should shoot for 10 on their own. With good alliances stitched with smaller parties in Tamil Nadu, NDA in Tamil Nadu can very well get a total of 10 seats at the least. This might sound difficult but not impossible with BJP opening its arms visibly to anyone that would agree to fight under Modi leadership in Tamil Nadu. In the next 3 months, things are going to reveal the art of possible although every big channel is saying today that even though BJP’s vote share will increase it will not convert to any seat in 2024. Mark my words, Tamil Nadu is one state that will throw a surprise. Given its already better base in Telengana, BJP should look to get atleast 4 seats more and double its tally to 8. Every state is nowadays clear who to bring in the state and who to support in the centre. With the Lingayats a bit pacified with Yeddyurappa’s son, Vijayendra, as the BJP party chief and a part of the Vokkaliga votes coming to NDA due to their smart alliance with JDS, BJP should just retain its 2019 tally of 25 seats in Karnataka. With both TDP and YSRCP not in I.N.D.I alliance and both open to a BJP alliance, BJP can try getting both of them into the NDA fold which is again difficult but not an impossible proposition with Chandrababu Naidu already doing rounds in BJP office and Jagan Reddy’s own sister challenging him by joining his arch rival, the Congress. This way all the 25 LS seats there will be safe with NDA and will help it to catapult itself beyond the 400 mark.
In the West, the only state that BJP has manage well is Maharashtra. Here their arithmetic will see them through rather than actual chemistry. Although the likes of Mood of the Nation of India Today shows that the Maha Vikas Aghadi will do better than NDA there due to public sentiment but I am very confident that BJP and Fadnavis will do smart arithmetic there and ensure loyal voters of Shinde’s Shivsena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP will not disappoint their leaders. The fact that BJP is not leaving even MNS in Maharashtra shows their preparedness. This will be the only dicey state in the LS elections but with smart maneuvering and getting voters to poll booths will do the magic. I think BJP must negotiate for more seats to fight this time in Maharashtra and win 30 seats on their own improving their tally from 23 seats in 2019, if they actually want to go close to the target of 370 that their most popular leader, Narendra Modi, has set for the party this time and announced in parliament itself. Given how BJP has helped Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde so far, I believe they will oblige. The other states in the West are already solidly behind BJP and will not cause any worry for them.
Thus I conclude that BJP will get between 350 to 370 seats on their own in the upcoming Loksabha elections and if they focus on some of the above states, especially UP, Maharashtra, WB, Odisha, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, they can get very close to 370 which as per my calculation comes to around 364 as shown in the table below (ignore the blanks) which is stupendous and NDA will then stand to achieve even around 414 seats which will be record breaking as per the desire of one of the greatest Prime Ministers that India has ever seen, Narendra Damodardas Modi.
Ananth Mahadevan is a political commentator based in Bengaluru.
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