Recently AIADMK announced that they are separating from the NDA alliance. An article earlier written by this author had supported the idea of BJP going solo in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. It has happened now. Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) met Union Home Minisre Amit Shah in Delhi and post that some of their second rung party leaders met BJP National President JP Nadda before making the divorce official. BJP has not issued any other strong communication on this AIADMK move. The scope of this article is not to get into who is wary of whom, what triggered this decision, whether the Tamil Nadu BJP President, K. Annamalai, was the reason for this rift etc. This article focuses on how this separation will help both parties in the upcoming elections against their main opponent, DMK.
AIADMK can now re-establish their talks with other DMK allies like VCK party who did not have any other alliance options so far as they didn’t want to be seen on the side where BJP is an alliance partner. Some of these parties had to fight under DMK symbol also in the last assembly elections which would have been really embarrassing for their cadres. They will now start negotiating more assertively with DMK for seats and if not given AIADMK is waiting anyways to take them in. The minority voters, especially Muslims, would now start reconsidering their support to AIADMK as BJP has moved out. AIADMK can go aggressive on their more reasonable Dravidam plank compared to the DMK who does not show any hesitation being seen as Anti-Hindu as reinforced by the ugly Sanatana Dharma comments made publicly by some of their leaders. AIADMK will be seen as a more acceptable party by the Hindu voters in Tamilnadu now which will work to their advantage if they are able to set the right narratives. One should not forget that there was actually no significant anti-incumbency for AIADMK during the last 2021 assembly elections and people were quite happy with EPS. It is a fact that Annamalai, through his great communication skills and aggression, has been actively and successfully setting an Anti-DMK narrative whereas AIADMK has been a little passive being the main opposition party. This separation now will help AIADMK regain the media space as a separate entity and not get overshadowed by Annamalai. Their cadres will also be reenergized to fight it out on their own and DMK will not be able to call AIADMK as a subservient B team of BJP. Edappadi’s stature has already gone up amongst its cadres as everyone likes their leader to be strong and decisive. AIADMK can just be friends with BJP like BJD in Odisha and still maintain their base.
On the other hand, BJP will go hammer and tongs with the Annamalai yatra, strengthening their booth level organization, talk openly about eradication of corruption when DMK is talking about eradication of Sanatana Dharma. Obviously, the former narrative of eradication of corruption will appeal more to the TN voters if asked to choose between the two. I have already written about why BJP must go solo and its advantages and will not repeat them here but just to summarize, BJP can aggressively work towards creating its karyakarta base using this opportunity. Annamalai will not be questioned on why he is not talking about corruption in AIADMK and is only targeting DMK. He can freely talk about the misgivings of this Dravidian ideology and give a fresh new alternative ideology to the people of Tamilnadu. Some senior leaders within BJP who were vouching for the alliance with AIADMK will have to fall in line with Annamalai now and work with him wholeheartedly. BJP can easily get the 5 seats on their own which EPS would have allocated to them in the erstwhile alliance. BJP can only grow from here and this split provides them with the opportunity in a silver platter. Hopefully, the BJP top brass will not try to patch up and go the traditional way which will weaken Annamalai’s blistering form if I can use a cricketing analogy. They know that Annamalai is their best option if they want to grow in TN.
Earlier NDA attack on DMK will now become two pronged attack which DMK has to face. Two is always stronger than just one and this will probably give great dividends. You can always consider a post poll alliance and BJP and AIADMK can share the ruling party and the opposition party space by annihilating the DMK. It will be win-win for BJP and AIADMK in 2024 and 2026 elections. Let’s wait and watch!
Ananth Mahadevan is a political commentator based in Bengaluru.
Subscribe to our channels on Telegram and WhatsApp and get the best stories of the day delivered to you personally.