The F-35 Trap: Why It’s A High-Stakes Geopolitical Gamble For India
The F-35 Lightning II, a fighter jet from the United States, is a marvel of modern engineering—its design makes it nearly invisible to enemy radar, it can strike targets with deadly accuracy, and it links up instantly with other allied planes and bases to share what it sees. America is offering this jet to India, presenting a tempting upgrade for the air force. However, Russia’s S-400 system can blast threats out of the sky from 400 kilometers away, while the U.S. Patriot system is built to stop missiles closer in, within 160 kilometers. These aren’t just machines—they’re bargaining chips in a tense global standoff, and India is caught right in the middle, needing to decide what keeps it safest.
This situation escalated when the Prime Minister visited the U.S. in February 2025, and President Donald Trump pitched the F-35 as a game-changer. Some believe it’s a golden ticket to match China’s growing air power, but others see a catch—it’s massively expensive, and buying it might mean relying on America for spares and support for decades. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is stretched thin with just 31 squadrons—each squadron has about 18 planes—when experts say 42 are needed to handle threats from Pakistan to the west and China to the north and east. China is not standing still either; they’re working on sixth-generation jets—faster, smarter, and harder to spot than anything India has. The F-35 could quickly plug that gap, but it’s not just about getting new planes—it’s about whether the cost and the strings attached make sense for India.
The Indian Air Force’s Breaking Point
The Indian Air Force (IAF) is in a tight spot. With only 31 squadrons instead of the 42 needed, there is a shortfall of over 200 planes to feel secure against neighbouring threats. This gap is significant—it’s like having half the guards needed to watch a long border. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the company relied upon to build jets like the Tejas, has been painfully slow. In October 2024, IAF Chief Air Marshal AP Singh called them out at a major air show, highlighting delays in Tejas deliveries—meant to be an affordable, home-grown fighter—leaving the IAF exposed. Currently, the IAF is flying aging MiGs from the Soviet era and Sukhois from Russia, which are decent but outdated compared to what’s emerging next door. China’s sixth-generation jets use artificial intelligence (AI) to fly smarter, dodge radar better, and react faster than human pilots ever could. The F-35 is a ready-made answer—it’s available now, it hides from radar, and it fights well—but each one costs £62 million, and dozens are needed, plus years of American help to keep them running.
Steps have already been taken to protect India. In 2018, a £4.2 billion deal was signed with Russia for the S-400 system, which fires missiles to stop planes or rockets before they get close. Three of the five units are operational along the borders, with the last two due by late 2025. The S-400 can see threats 600 kilometers away and hit them at 400 kilometers, far outstripping the Patriot’s 150-kilometer sight and 160-kilometer reach. That’s why it was chosen — India has vast frontiers, and something that covers the distance is needed. The Patriot didn’t meet the requirements back then. However, if the F-35 is purchased, America might insist on pairing it with Patriots because their tech doesn’t mix well with Russian gear. This could mean the £4.2 billion S-400s sit half-useless, forcing additional spending to start over with American systems. It’s crucial to figure out what each system does and whether this new deal is worth upsetting the existing one.
Tech Titans Compared: F-35, Patriot, S-400
The following table provides a detailed comparison of the technical specifications of the F-35 Lightning II, the MIM-104 Patriot (PAC-3), and the S-400 Triumf:
The F-35 is a jet designed for offensive operations, hiding from radar with a signal so small (0.001 m²) it appears like a bird to enemy scanners. It’s AN/APG-81 radar sees far and clear, guiding missiles like the AARGM-ER to hit targets 97 kilometers away. However, at £62 million per jet, the costs are steep, and repairs and fuel add even more expenses.
The Patriot is a ground-based system firing missiles at 6,174 km/h to stop threats it detects 150 kilometers away. It excels at intercepting large missiles but struggles with low-flying threats. Each unit costs £775 million, with missiles priced at £3 million each.
The S-400, also ground-based, launches missiles up to 400 kilometers at 17,297 km/h, detecting threats 600 kilometers away with its 91N6E radar and handling up to 384 missiles. It is cheaper at £388 million per unit but remains untested in actual combat.
India needs both reach and reliability—S-400 provides distance, F-35 offers offensive capabilities, while the Patriot represents a middle ground previously deemed insufficient.
The S-400 Precedent: A Bold Stand
In 2018, India chose the S-400 over the Patriot because its 400-kilometer reach and 600-kilometer sight fit the need to guard long borders against planes or missiles sneaking in. America wasn’t happy—they threatened sanctions, especially after India didn’t take sides in the Ukraine war, showing independence from American influence. Fast forward to Modi’s U.S. visit in February 2025, and President Donald Trump offers the F-35—a jet previously shared only with NATO allies until Turkey bought S-400s and got booted from the F-35 program. The catch? F-35s don’t work smoothly with Russian tech like the S-400—their systems clash—so America might push India to buy Patriots instead, side-lining the £4.2 billion S-400 investment.
Turkey’s situation illustrates the risk: they wanted Patriots, but when America delayed, they acquired S-400s. The U.S. cut them off from F-35s, imposed sanctions, and left their air force weaker. America fears Russia could study S-400 data to crack how F-35s hide from radar—a danger India would face too. Trump’s offer isn’t necessarily a favour—it’s a business move aimed at making a sale, not necessarily strengthening India’s defense. The critical question is whether this deal genuinely benefits India or merely serves American interests while complicating India’s defense plans.
America’s AI Gambit and F-35 Clearance Sale
India faces a critical decision in choosing between the American F-35 and the Russian Su-57 fighter jets, especially as global aviation technology races toward AI-driven, pilotless aircraft. The United States is aggressively advancing toward AI-piloted jets that can react faster than any human pilot. They’ve already tested this technology with F-16s in 2024 and plan to deploy hundreds of such aircraft by 2028. This shift suggests that even the F-35—currently a pinnacle of stealth and technology with its radar cross-section of just 0.001 m²—could soon become outdated. If AI-driven jets are the future, the F-35 might be a short-term asset, potentially explaining why the U.S. is eager to sell it to countries like India now. For India, buying the F-35 could mean investing in a jet that’s nearing the end of its dominance, leaving India reliant on America for spares and support as their focus shifts to newer systems.
Russia offers the Su-57, a jet with a larger radar cross-section of 0.1 m², making it less stealthy than the F-35. However, its real advantage lies elsewhere: Russia is willing to let India manufacture the Su-57 domestically under the “Make in India” initiative. This aligns perfectly with India’s goal of building its own defense industry. Producing the Su-57 at home would create jobs, develop technical skills, and give India control over its own supply chain—benefits the F-35 simply can’t offer, as it would keep India dependent on American production and maintenance.
Strategic Trade-Offs
- Short-Term Capability vs. Long-Term Growth: The F-35 offers superior stealth and technology today, but its edge may fade as AI jets emerge. The Su-57, while less advanced in stealth, provides a platform for India to strengthen its industrial base and prepare for future innovations, like the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
- Dependence vs. Independence: Buying the F-35 ties India to the U.S., with little say over costs or restrictions. Building the Su-57 fosters self-reliance, reducing vulnerability to foreign supply chains or geopolitical pressures.
Given the rapid evolution of AI-driven aviation, investing heavily in the F-35 risks locking India into a system that could soon be overshadowed. The Su-57, despite its stealth disadvantage, offers a strategic win: the chance to grow India’s own capabilities and maintain autonomy. By building the Su-57 locally, India can create a foundation for its defense industry while keeping pace with global trends—potentially even adapting the Su-57 or future designs for AI enhancements down the line.
Geopolitical Alliances and Dependencies
Choosing the F-35 would integrate India more deeply into the U.S.-led defense alliance. The F-35 is already a key component of multinational air defense alliances, with countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, and several NATO members incorporating it into their air forces. This integration ensures coordinated responses to shared threats and reinforces collective security. However, it also means that India would be dependent on the U.S. for operational support, software updates, and maintenance, potentially limiting India’s strategic autonomy.
There are concerns about the F-35’s reliance on U.S. control systems, such as the Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) and its successor, the Operational Data Integrated Network (ODIN). These systems could theoretically allow the U.S. to exert control over the aircraft, raising fears about a “kill switch” that could disable foreign-operated F-35s. While this is largely speculative, it underscores the potential vulnerabilities and dependencies associated with choosing the F-35.
On the other hand, the Su-57 offers a different set of geopolitical implications. By opting for the Su-57, India would strengthen its defense ties with Russia, a long-standing partner. This choice aligns with India’s goal of building a self-reliant defense industry and reduces dependency on Western suppliers. The Su-57’s affordability and advanced capabilities present Russia with both economic and strategic opportunities, potentially securing new military alliances and export agreements. Additionally, Russia’s willingness to share technology and allow domestic production under the “Make in India” initiative fosters local expertise and control over the supply chain.
References
[1] The F-35’s Role In Multinational Air Defense Alliances – Simple Flying
[2] The F-35 ‘Kill Switch’: Separating Myth from Reality
[3] Sukhoi Su-57 Felon: Russia’s Fifth-Generation Stealth Fighter
This is Part 1 of article, you can read Part 2 of the series here.
Vikram Mohan is an independent writer with a keen eye for global defense and geopolitics. While not a formal specialist, he brings a fresh, analytical perspective to complex strategic issues, blending meticulous research with insightful commentary.
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