News Tamil Nadu

The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt 2024 Pre-Poll Survey Predictions On BJP Vote Share In TN Leaves “Journalists” & AIADMK Upset

February 27, 2024
The Commune

The upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu are poised for significant changes, as indicated by The Federal-Puthiyathalaimurai-Apt Pre-Poll Survey. This extensive survey focused intensely on Tamil Nadu and aimed to assess the electoral sentiments in the state’s five regions: north, south, west, central, and Chennai.

The survey suggests that the DMK, led by MK Stalin and currently in power, is likely to maintain its lead in vote share in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. However, there is an anticipated decline in the DMK’s vote share compared to the 2019 elections. Conversely, the AIADMK is projected to maintain a vote share similar to that of 2019. Notably, the BJP is emerging as a surprise contender, with a vote share comparable to the AIADMK, despite the alliance dissolution last year.

Overall, according to the survey, Tamil Nadu is expected to contribute over 38% of the vote share to the DMK, significantly lower than the 53.3% secured in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP follows closely with an 18.5% vote share, marking a substantial increase from the 3.7% it obtained in 2019. 

The survey predicts that out of the 39 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, the DMK is poised to secure a sweeping victory with 29 seats, while rivals BJP and AIADMK are anticipated to win 4-6 seats each, according to the survey.

Reaction From Journalists & Opposition Members

Journalists like Shabbir Ahmed of The News Minute rubbished the survey and questioned how BJP could jump from a mere 3% to a whopping 18% vote share. 

The News Minute which reported on the survey added a paragraph trying to point out that Parivendar Pachamuthu, MP and president of the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK), who owns the SRM group of institutions (that also runs Puthiya Thalaimurai), that his party is in alliance with the BJP for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections to colour the survey results. 

Speaking to Puthiya Thalaimurai’s anchor, Shabbir Ahmed stated, “The DMK alliance numbers seem true and could have been taken from the survey in TN. But the BJP has a 15% jump from 3%. These numbers are probably from MP. This jump seems impossible. If that were to happen, there must be a wave, a pro-BJP mindset. There can be a marginal increase in vote share. BJP has been in power for the past 10 years so there will be a natural impact. A 6-8% increase is still reasonable. But a 15% jump especially after pushing ADMK to the 3rd place is questionable. ADMK has its resources, cadre, and booth workers and BJP has half or less than half of what it has. Looking at the remaining numbers, there is about 5% support for other parties and about 6% are still undecided. So whose opinion is this, are they creating a narrative that the BJP is growing rapidly by showcasing these numbers? If these are the actual numbers, why is the BJP asking parties to join their alliance? Vasan alone has joined their alliance, even if you don’t invite him, he’d have joined.” 

ADMK cadre, upset with the results of the survey supported Shabbir for his views and stated that a few people were manipulating surveys and spoiling the name of surveys in general. 

In reality, this number is not far from what other surveys predicted. Poll strategist Prashant Kishore had also predicted an 8-15% vote share for the BJP, Times Now Matrize Survey predicted a 20% vote share for the BJP in Tamil Nadu. 

That said, whether the BJP will push the ADMK to the third spot and become the second-largest party in the state remains to be seen. 

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