The National Democratic Alliance is projected to gain an early edge in key southern battlegrounds, particularly in Tamil Nadu, according to the latest Matrize opinion survey released shortly after the Election Commission of India announced the schedule for Assembly elections across five states.
The Commission on Sunday declared that Assembly elections will be held in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry, with voting beginning on 9 April 2026 and counting scheduled for 4 May 2026.
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar announced that polling in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry will take place in a single phase on 9 April 2026. Tamil Nadu will vote in a single phase on 23 April 2026, while West Bengal will go to the polls in two phases on 23 April and 29 April 2026.
At the announcement, the Commission stated that final electoral rolls had been published following intensive revisions and that Central Observers had been deployed under Article 324 of the Constitution and Section 20B of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, to oversee preparations and ensure free and fair elections.
Tamil Nadu: NDA alliance projected ahead
As reported in IANS, in the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly, the Matrize survey projected the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam–led NDA alliance to emerge ahead of the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam bloc.
The poll projected the AIADMK-led alliance securing between 114 and 127 seats with a vote share of about 39-40 percent. The ruling DMK-led alliance was projected to win between 104 and 114 seats with a vote share of 37–38 percent.
The survey indicated that the DMK remained strong in the Chennai region, where it was projected to outperform its rivals by 7-8 percentage points and retain a majority of the 37 constituencies.
The poll also suggested that the newly formed Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam led by actor Vijay could emerge as a significant third force, with a projected vote share of 14-15 percent and an estimated 6-12 seats.
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