With just 11 months remaining for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, a recent opinion poll conducted by veteran journalist Rangaraj Pandey through his Chanakyaa Tv has offered key insights into the current political climate across the state. The survey, which covered 40 major legislative constituencies between April and May, indicates a potential shift in voter sentiment and suggests a highly competitive four-way contest on the horizon.
The poll reveals that the ruling DMK is facing growing anti-incumbency, with its popularity appearing to decline compared to the last election cycle. Meanwhile, the opposition AIADMK seems to be regaining strength and emerging as a primary contender. Interestingly, Seeman’s Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) has maintained its voter base, and actor-turned-politician Vijay continues to enjoy significant trust among the public.
According to Rangaraj Pandey, the survey was conducted independently, without external influence or the involvement of third-party agencies. A total of 3,065 respondents from across forty various constituencies—including Chengalpattu, Nagapattinam, T.Nagar, Madurai West, Salem and others—shared their views.
Performance Of The BJP-led Central Government:
- 28% rated it as good
- 38% felt it was average
- 34% as poor
Regarding The Performance Of Prime Minister Narendra Modi:
- 33% rated it as excellent
- 35% said it was alright
- 32% considered it poor
Regarding The Modi Government’s Approach Towards Tamil Nadu,
- 46% felt the state was being betrayed
- 34% disagreed
- 20% were unsure
DMK Government’s Performance:
- 23% rated it as excellent
- 36% said it was average
- 41% considered it poor
Evaluating Chief Minister M.K. Stalin:
- 27% said his leadership was excellent
- 35% called it average
- 38% rated it as poor
Evaluating Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin:
- 22% said his leadership was excellent
- 33% called it average
- 45% rated it as poor
While assessing the Law and order received low marks, with 53% rating it poorly and only 17% marking it as excellent.
Regarding the DMK’s election promises:
- 16% said they were fully fulfilled
- 52% believed they were partially fulfilled
- 32% said they were not fulfilled at all
When respondents were asked about corruption under the DMK government, 53% felt that corruption had increased, 31% believed there was some level of corruption, while only 16% opined that the government was free of corruption. Regarding the central agencies’ actions—such as ED and IT raids on DMK ministers—47% considered them legitimate and warranted, whereas 32% perceived them as politically driven.
Public Opinion On Part-Time Politician Vijay:
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26% believed his politics were good
-
54% considered his political performance average
-
20% rated it as poor
Best Performing Opposition Leader:
- Edappadi K Palaniswami 49%
- K Annamalai 24%
- Vijay 16%
- Seeman 11%
Public Response On The AIADMK-BJP Alliance:
-
37% said Yes, they welcome the alliance
-
39% said No, they do not support it
-
24% said they are undecided
Voter Intention For The AIADMK-BJP Alliance:
-
35% said Yes, they would vote for the alliance
-
41% said No, they would not support it
-
24% said they are undecided
Preference For Next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu:
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Edappadi K. Palaniswami (AIADMK) – 30%
-
M.K. Stalin (DMK) – 28%
-
Vijay (Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam) – 21%
-
K. Annamalai (BJP) – 14%
-
Seeman (Naam Tamilar Katchi) – 7%
If Elections Were Held Today, Who Would Win?
-
AIADMK – 41%
-
DMK – 34%
-
TVK (Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam) – 19%
-
Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) – 6%
Overall, the survey indicates a noticeable drop in approval for both Chief Minister Stalin and his deputy, Udhayanidhi Stalin. With multiple parties gaining traction and voter sentiments shifting, the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections are shaping up to be a closely fought battle.
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