After Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam head Vijay’s first political public meeting, Naam Tamilar Katchi head Seeman seems to have realized that Vijay could erode his voter base. Anticipating a loss of his support base to Vijay, Seeman has shifted his strategy to target BJP’s support base instead.
His early steps in this new direction seem effective, while the Tamil Nadu BJP continues to be clueless with its usual lack of strategy. Seeman’s new approach seems aimed at attracting BJP’s voter base while ensuring he stays true to his core ideology.
Many argue that Seeman cannot attract BJP’s core Hindutva voters, and that’s absolutely true. However, the real issue lies elsewhere. Not all of the 11% vote share BJP secured in 2024 consists of core Hindutva supporters.
A significant portion includes voters who are anti-Dravidian but not necessarily pro-Hindutva, as well as neutral, non-ideological voters who saw BJP as an alternative to the Dravidian parties. Seeman is attracting this segment of voters.
There’s another crucial aspect to consider. While BJP’s vote share grew to 11% in 2024, the overall vote share of the BJP-led alliance has remained stagnant at 18%, which was also the same in 2014. This suggests that the vote for Modi as Prime Minister, without a Dravidian party alliance, has not expanded in Tamil Nadu over the past 10 years.
However, the alliance’s potential reach is much larger. There are untapped voters who could vote for BJP but haven’t yet, and Seeman’s current political strategy is making it harder for BJP to access these voters, as Seeman is also targeting this segment. BJP’s potential vote base isn’t limited to those who have already voted for the party in previous elections.
It also includes those who have been influenced by BJP’s political narratives and could become future voters. If, with just 11% of the vote share, the party or its supporters believe that “Seeman won’t impact our party,” and dismiss any concerns, it reflects a lack of ambition. It shows no real intent to expand to new voters and win the state, instead being satisfied with the current vote share.
Such complacency is also a sign of overconfidence, as they assume that BJP’s vote base is untouchable. For any party to grow, it must reach new voters, but BJP’s lack of a clear strategy for Tamil Nadu (both at the state and Central level) remains a major obstacle to expand their base.
As things stand, it would be good if the BJP at least manages to retain its 2024 vote share in the upcoming 2026 elections.
Saiganesh is a political commentator and the founder of Desiyasiragugal YouTube channel.
Subscribe to our channels on Telegram, WhatsApp, and Instagram and get the best stories of the day delivered to you personally.