Dinamalar has unveiled the second part of its extensive pre-election survey focusing on Tamil Nadu, featuring an additional 15 constituencies. This in-depth examination aims to assess the existing electoral mood and ascertain the favored political party. With a substantial sample of 88,000 participants from Tamil Nadu and Puducherry combined, the survey endeavors to reveal the contemporary political leanings and prevalent opinions. Here is part one of this report.
North Chennai
In the North Chennai Constituency, the incumbent MP is Kalanidhi Veeraswamy of the DMK. Once again, the party has reposed its trust in him by granting him the ticket. He faces competition from Royapuram Mano of the AIADMK and RC Paul Kanakaraj of the BJP.
The pre-poll survey indicates the expected distribution of votes as follows: DMK 50.80%, AIADMK 29.90%, BJP 12.40%, and NTK 6.90%. This constituency stands out as voters here express dissatisfaction with both the ruling DMK government in the state and the current MP. Specifically, the MP’s perceived lack of action during the floods has drawn criticism. Despite this, the DMK candidate is favored to win due to the constituency’s historical allegiance to the DMK, which has only been defeated once since 1967. Of the six assembly constituencies within, four are inclined towards the DMK, with ministers like Sekar Babu actively canvassing for votes. Furthermore, the groundwork has been laid previously as the CM’s constituency is also located here. However, the opposition faces a significant obstacle due to the lack of activity, even though the AIADMK has nominated a well-known candidate for the area.
South Chennai
In the South Chennai Constituency, the incumbent MP representing the DMK is Thamizhachi Thangapandian. She has been nominated once more by her party to contest in this area. Competing against her are J Jayavardhan from the AIADMK and Tamilisai Soundararajan from the BJP.
As per the recent survey, the DMK is anticipated to secure the lead with 32.50% of the vote, closely followed by the AIADMK with 31.00%, the BJP with 29.50%, and the NTK with 7.00%. Unlike other constituencies, the DMK has opted to maintain its incumbent MP despite a 75% dissatisfaction rate from constituents. Thamizhachi Thangapandian has been retained in South Chennai, along with Kalanidhi Veeraswamy in North Chennai, primarily due to considerations of hereditary representation. Despite this, the DMK benefits from the weaknesses in the opposition’s strategy, though the AIADMK still holds some hope.
Krishnagiri
In Krishnagiri, A Chellakumar of the Congress currently serves as the Member of Parliament. However, he has been denied a ticket for the upcoming election, with K Gopinath, also from the Congress, chosen instead to contest in his place. Other contenders in the constituency include V Jayaprakash from AIADMK and C Narasimhan from the BJP.
The Dinamalar survey indicates that the DMK is poised to take the lead with 40.40% of the projected vote share, trailed by AIADMK at 23.60%, BJP at 16.90%, and NTK at 11.30%. Despite significant anticipation within the BJP for this constituency, the party leadership decided to allocate the ticket to a former MP, resulting in dissatisfaction among party members and a lackluster campaign. Historically an AIADMK stronghold, the defection of votes to the Congress appears likely due to the opposition’s perceived inactivity.
Dharmapuri
In the Dharmapuri constituency, the incumbent MP, Senthilkumar S of the DMK, has been replaced by another DMK candidate, A Mani, for the upcoming election. Competing against them are Asokan from the AIADMK and Sowmiya Anbumani from the PMK, an ally of the BJP.
According to recent surveys, the DMK is projected to secure 33.10% of the vote, with the BJP following closely at 30.00%, the AIADMK at 28.60%, and the NTK at 8.30%. However, predicting the outcome in this constituency is challenging due to its predominantly Vanniyar caste population, which traditionally supports the PMK’s Sowmiya Anbumani. Despite this, there is uncertainty among voters, especially among the less populated Dalit community, whose votes are divided between the DMK and the AIADMK. In the previous election, the AIADMK and PMK formed an alliance, but now they are competing against each other, potentially leading to confused voters leaning towards the DMK. Consequently, although the DMK appears to be in the lead, there is a significant three-way battle underway.
Kallakurichi
In the Kallakurichi constituency, the current MP Gautham Sigamani of the DMK, has been denied a ticket due to widespread dissatisfaction. Instead, the party has nominated DMK Malaiyarasan to contest in his place. Other contenders include Kumaraguru from the AIADMK and Devdas Udayar from the PMK, an ally of the BJP.
DMK is anticipated to lead with 42.80% of the vote, followed by the AIADMK with 30.50%, the BJP with 17.20%, and the NTK with 6.40% as per the Dinamalar survey. This constituency witnesses a showdown primarily between the Dravidian parties, as the BJP has abstained from fielding its candidate. This decision was influenced by the PMK alliance, which led to a reduction in the BJP’s vote share. Despite internal strife within the DMK, they remain competitive, while the opposition ADMK, under the leadership of EPS, closely monitors the situation. Consequently, the electoral battle is bifurcated, with BJP votes potentially splitting between the ADMK and DMK, and PMK votes gravitating towards the DMK.
Salem
In Salem’s electoral area, S R Parthiban, representing the DMK, currently holds the position of Member of Parliament. However, he has been denied candidacy in the upcoming election, instead, a ticket has been granted to TM Selvaganapathi, also from the DMK. Competing alongside them are Vignesh from the AIADMK and Annadurai from the BJP’s ally, the PMK.
The DMK is anticipated to lead with 39.10% of the vote, followed by the AIADMK with 36.60%, the BJP with 14.70%, and the NTK with 5.40%. In this specific constituency, the AIADMK is investing considerable effort into securing victory, given that the party’s leader, EPS, hails from this area. However, their decision to field a new candidate poses a challenge. Conversely, the DMK has strategically nominated a well-known figure, bolstering their chances despite facing tough competition. It appears that the PMK has taken a less active role, yet still manages to secure a respectable percentage of support. Ultimately, it is predicted that the DMK will emerge victorious in this constituency.
Chidambaram
In the Chidambaram constituency, Thirumavalavan from the VCK, an ally of DMK, currently serves as the Member of Parliament. He has once again been nominated to contest from this constituency. The other contenders include Chandrahaasan from AIADMK and P Karthiyayini from the BJP.
The DMK is once again anticipated to lead with 43.60% of the vote, followed by AIADMK with 26.10%, BJP with 20.10%, and NTK with 5.40%. The electorate in this constituency tends to favor the VCK candidate, the incumbent MP, largely due to widespread dissatisfaction with the central government. This sentiment, which has been fueled by the DMK’s messaging, has resonated strongly here. Additionally, the relatively weaker choices presented by the opposition parties have further bolstered the chances of victory for the VCK candidate.
Madurai
In the Madurai constituency, the current Member of Parliament is S Venkatesan from the CPI-M. He has once again been nominated by his party to contest in the upcoming election. Other notable contenders include P Saravanan from AIADMK and Raama Sreenivasan from the BJP. The Dinamalar survey indicates that the DMK alliance is anticipated to lead with 33.30% of the vote, closely followed by AIADMK with 28.20%, BJP with 27.60%, and NTK with 10.90%.
This constituency is drawing significant attention due to the narrow margins among the three main candidates, reflecting the fluctuating sentiments of the electorate. Despite the incumbent MP, S. Venkatesan, maintaining satisfaction among the people, the emerging strength of the BJP in the region has affected DMK’s vote share, creating a challenge. Similar to South Chennai, there is notable support for PM Modi among the populace. However, BJP lacks substantial grassroots support, relying on the AMMK cadres’ backing, which is somewhat reciprocal. Despite the favorable outlook for DMK’s victory, the survey suggests that AIADMK stands a chance if it intensifies its efforts.
Tirupur
In the Tirupur district, K Subbarayan of the CPI currently serves as the Member of Parliament. He has once again been nominated by his party to contest in the upcoming elections. Other contenders in the constituency include Arunachalam of the AIADMK and AP Muruganandam representing the BJP. The DMK is anticipated to lead with 31.20% of the vote, closely trailed by the BJP with 29.30%, the AIADMK with 26.40%, and the NTK with 6.70%.
The survey indicates a complex electoral landscape in this constituency. Despite minimal contributions to the constituency, Subbarayan has been renominated, causing dissatisfaction among voters. Additionally, ground-level DMK supporters have been redirected to assist A Raja, the MP for Nilgiris, leaving an opportunity for opposition parties. The AIADMK holds a strong position in four out of six assembly constituencies, while Muruganandam of the BJP faces skepticism in villages due to his outsider status, hailing from Coimbatore. Ultimately, last-minute campaigning strategies will likely determine the election outcome until it favors the DMK.
Thiruvallur
In the Thiruvallur constituency, the current Member of Parliament representing the Congress is K Jeyakumar. However, he has been denied the party’s ticket for re-election and it has been given to another Congress candidate, Sasikanth Senthil, for the same constituency. Competing against them are K Nalla Thambi from the DMDK, an ally of AIADMK, and Pon V Balaganapathy from the BJP.
Dinamalar survey indicates that the DMK is anticipated to lead with 49.70% of the vote, followed by AIADMK with 31.40%, BJP with 14.10%, and NTK with 4.80%.
The survey underscores a missed opportunity for the AIADMK, as voters expressed significant dissatisfaction with the incumbent MP. Despite considering voting for AIADMK, they were disappointed when the party allocated this constituency to its ally, DMDK, during alliance negotiations. All candidates, including the potential AIADMK contender Venugopal, hail from other constituencies. It’s believed that had AIADMK fielded Venugopal, who has local support, they could have won effortlessly. However, in the end, all parties seemed to clear the path for the Congress candidate.
Perambalur
In the Perambalur constituency, the current Member of Parliament is TR Paarivendhar representing the Indiya Jananayaka Katchi (IJK). Presently, he is aligned with the BJP, while the DMK has nominated Arun Nehru. Other contenders include ChandraMohan from AIADMK and TR Paarivendhar from the IJK ally of BJP.
The DMK is anticipated to hold the lead with 35.20% of the vote, closely trailed by the BJP with 32.60%, AIADMK with 15.60%, and NTK with 7.10%. The survey indicates that the incumbent MP faces some dissatisfaction from certain caste groups in the area. Additionally, the AIADMK appears to have minimal activity due to its candidate being relatively new to both the party and politics, relying heavily on recommendations rather than established party cadres, resulting in sluggish interest. On the other hand, the DMK candidate, Arun Nehru, benefits from his familial influence, contributing to his performance. Consequently, there is a significant contest between the DMK and BJP, with undecided voters potentially swaying towards the DMK, giving it an advantage.
Sivaganga
In the Sivaganga constituency, Karti Chidambaram, representing the Congress, currently serves as the Member of Parliament. He has been nominated once again to contest for the same constituency. Competing against him are Xavier Dass from AIADMK and T Devanathan Yadav from BJP. Here too, the DMK is anticipated to lead with 32.80% of the votes, followed by BJP with 29.20%, AIADMK with 22.60%, and NTK with 10.60%.
Recognizing the community dynamics, the BJP strategically fielded a Yadav candidate to avoid vote division. However, this candidate’s unfamiliarity with the area has caused discontent among some party members. Particularly affected is the ADMK, as the BJP is drawing significant support from their staunch followers. Despite dissatisfaction with the incumbent MP Karti, who has faced criticism for his ties to the DMK and the influence of the Chidambaram family, he still garners votes. However, segments like the Mukkulathor community harbor resentment towards Karti for his deceptive campaign against the BJP. While he may secure victory, the survey predicts a narrower margin for him.
Kanyakumari
In the Kanyakumari constituency, the incumbent Member of Parliament is Vijay Vasanth of the Congress party. He has once again been nominated to contest in the upcoming election for the same constituency. Other contenders include Pasliyan Nazareth from AIADMK and Pon Radhakrishnan from BJP. Dinamalar survey indicates that the DMK will take the lead with 40.90% of the vote, followed by BJP with 38.90%, AIADMK with 9.80%, and NTK with 7.30%.
The survey suggests that the electorate in this constituency prioritizes development-focused politics. However, the contest often revolves around religious affiliations, particularly between the Hindu and Christian communities, which has been a long-standing issue. This constituency remains volatile, capable of swinging in favor of any candidate at any moment. Despite three out of four candidates being Christian, there’s a concerted effort within the Christian populace to defeat candidates of Hindu background. Initially, it was believed that the Christian vote would be split among the three Christian candidates, but there’s a growing consensus to support Vijay Vasanth. However, the shift of former Congress leader Vijaya Dharani to the BJP may attract votes from the Vellalar community traditionally aligned with AIADMK, potentially causing a shift in the dynamics of the election.
Dindigul
In the Dindigul constituency, the current Member of Parliament representing the DMK is P Velusamy. However, this election cycle sees a change as the constituency has been allocated to CPI-M’s Sachidanandam. Other contenders in the race include Mubarak from the SDPI, an ally of AIADMK, and Thilagabama M from PMK, an ally of BJP. The DMK is poised to lead with 39.00% of the anticipated vote, followed by AIADMK with 26.30%, BJP with 15.70%, and NTK with 19.00%.
Dindigul holds significant sentiment for the AIADMK, being perceived as its stronghold, especially since the party’s initial victory here with Mayadevar and the acquisition of the two-leaf symbol. However, its prominence seems to have waned due to recent circumstances, having reluctantly conceded the seat to PMK last time, and now to SDPI, perhaps banking on the Muslim population’s support, which has not panned out as anticipated. The previous election saw the DMK emerge victorious, and this time, the prevailing trend suggests a similar outcome, though there’s a surprising surge in support for NTK, securing a notable 19% share.
Thoothukudi
In the Thoothukudi constituency, Kanimozhi of the DMK stands as the incumbent MP and is undisputedly re-nominated by her party. Competing against her are Sivasami Velumani from the AIADMK and Vijayaseelan from the TMC, an ally of the BJP. The DMK is expected to lead with 37.30% of the vote, trailed by the BJP with 23.80%, AIADMK with 23.40%, and NTK with 12.50%.
Kanimozhi’s tenure as an MP has been marked by significant achievements, particularly her responsive actions during times of crisis such as floods, earning her commendation. However, dissatisfaction with the governance of the DMK has also been attributed to her, potentially impacting her voter base. Nevertheless, the opposition lacks substantial strength to capitalize on this split. The ADMK candidate is perceived as an outsider, and the TMC lacks significant support in the constituency, diminishing their prospects. Consequently, both parties are perceived as having minimal impact. The support that would have flown to the BJP is now shifting towards the NTK. Had the BJP or ADMK fielded a prominent candidate, the competition could have been more intense. Nevertheless, the DMK is still poised to win, albeit possibly with a reduced margin compared to previous elections.
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