The Dinamalar pre-election survey foretells a seismic shift as the long-standing dominance of Dravidian parties crumbles, paving the way for a surge in support for the saffron party. State BJP President Annamalai’s resurgence mirrors the winds of change reminiscent of 1998 in Coimbatore, heralding a return to former glory.
The Coimbatore Lok Sabha Constituency stands out as one of the most eagerly anticipated and compelling constituencies, ranking as the third largest in terms of voter count, following Sriperumbudur and Chennai South. It encompasses several assembly segments including Palladam, Sulur, Kavundampalayam, Coimbatore North & South, and Singanallur. Renowned for its industrial vitality and communal sensitivity, it is currently the stage for a prestigious electoral contest. The BJP’s national leadership has placed its trust in State president K Annamalai, fielding him against former Mayor Ganapathi P. Rajkumar from the DMK, who switched from AIADMK in 2020, and Singai G Ramachandran of the AIADMK. Also contending is Kalamani Jagannathan from the NTK.
Historically, Coimbatore has been a stronghold for the AIADMK. However, it has seen varied political outcomes, notably electing the BJP’s C.P. Radhakrishnan in 1998 and 1999. The DMK last clinched victory here in 1996, while candidates backed by the CPI and CPI(M), supported by the Dravidian parties, triumphed in 2004 and 2019 respectively. The current MP, PR Natarajan of the CPI-M and ally of the DMK has been replaced by DMK candidate Ganapathi P. Rajkumar. According to pre-poll surveys by Dinamalar, the BJP is projected to lead comfortably with 39.70% of the vote share, followed by the DMK at 27.90%, ADMK at 26.50%, and NTK at 5.90%.
DMK has previously aimed to secure assembly seats from this area but faced defeat as voters sided with the ADMK. However, by nominating Senthil Balaji as the district head, DMK aimed to establish dominance in the Kongu region. In local body elections, DMK won most zones, showing satisfaction among voters. Unfortunately, Senthil Balaji’s arrest by the ED and subsequent imprisonment dealt a major blow to DMK’s aspirations.
This election represents a critical juncture for the two longstanding Dravidian parties, as their assertions about the BJP’s inability to gain traction in Tamil Nadu were proven wrong when the public entrusted the BJP with four MLA seats in the 2021 general assembly elections. Notably, one of these seats was won by Vanathi Srinivasan in Coimbatore South. Coimbatore, known for its welcoming attitude towards candidates with sharp intellect and a solid educational background, values individuals who grasp both the economic and developmental aspects of the region, given its industrial significance. The selection of Annamalai signifies the recognition of these qualities. For the AIADMK, it’s about maintaining their stronghold, while for the DMK, it’s a strategic move to establish a foothold in the region. Annamalai’s administrative prowess, bolstered by his former IPS background, has resonated strongly with the people. He has consistently proven himself, whether in debates, public meetings, or on the campaign trail, demonstrating a remarkable ability to listen to concerns, address queries directly, and connect with the electorate. These qualities have made him the preferred choice for the people of Coimbatore.
Field observations suggest significant discontent among voters towards the incumbent Member of Parliament. Reports suggest that there are complaints about Natarajan’s lack of rapport with all sections of his electorate, particularly stemming from his involvement as a trade unionist in industrial zones, which has irked business owners. Moreover, accusations of corruption have been leveled against both local authorities and the state government. It’s believed that Natarajan has become disconnected from the concerns and requirements of his constituents.
The industrial sector is also expressing dissatisfaction due to the recent surge in electricity rates and challenges related to the DMK administration. Energy consumption charges have been hiked from ₹6.35 per unit to ₹7.50 per unit, and fixed charges have escalated from ₹75 to ₹550 per kVA per month. This has significantly impacted the 15,000-20,000 cottage industries within the region. Coimbatore faces a pressing issue of water scarcity, particularly exacerbated during the summer season. The city heavily depends on groundwater extraction, resulting in dwindling water levels. In response, in April 2023, the Coimbatore Corporation initiated water rationing, limiting water distribution to specific areas during designated hours.
Understanding the pulse of the electorate, Annamalai’s manifesto for Coimbatore includes the following promises:
- Establishment of an Indian Institute of Management (IIM)
- Deployment of branches of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) within the city.
- Launching of 24/7 mobile food trucks in honor of the esteemed leader and former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, K Kamaraj.
- Expansion of the current airport into an international terminal.
- Establishment of a facility dedicated to cancer treatment.
- Initiation of Navodaya schools.
- Resolving concerns pertaining to the Noyyal and Kousika rivers.
Over the past 10 days, Annamalai’s influence has spread from the city to rural areas, gradually shifting perceptions in his favor. Despite efforts from the AIADMK and DMK to sway voters through financial and political means, momentum appears to be shifting decisively towards Annamalai, indicating a probable victory with a substantial margin.
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