This is the question that many supporters of the BJP are asking about the sudden turn of events in poll-bound Telangana, scheduled for state elections before the end of the year. With barely three months to go, the BJP’s momentum in the state saw a sudden shift for the worse, after the party’s central leadership moved their strongest, most vocal, most recognized regional Telugu leader, Bandi Sanjay Kumar from the crucial post of President of the Telangana BJP State Unit to a nationally important but regionally non-crucial post of National General Secretary, in July of this year. Instead, Union Minister, Kishan Reddy (Minister for Tourism, Culture and North-East Development) has been brought back to active state-level politics and given the additional position of State President of the party, which he had previously held from 2014-2016.

Is the BJP making the same mistake it had, in the recent Karnataka elections in terms of placing bets on the not-so-great leaders at the regional level? Is the BJP’s Telangana move a smart and strategic one based on a caste-money-influence combination…or is it a hasty, shallow, stop-gap move based on insufficient information carried out at the behest of a state-level leadership, immaturely motivated by infighting, jealousy and caste equations?

To many fans of the BJP in Telangana, Sanjay was the face of the party in the state, a tall and capable leader who almost single-handedly grew the party’s base, increased its popularity and brought it to the level of second largest party, a serious competition to the ruling BRS party which has managed to stay popular in spite of a two term incumbency. Till just a few weeks ago, it seemed that the BJP was second only to the BRS party and was a serious contender for a significant opposition in the state assembly or even the distant possibility of state leadership in collaboration with other parties.

Bandi Sanjay’s acerbic rebuttals, open challenges and bold replies to BRS big wigs including the CM himself, assured the BJP’s state unit, of higher-than-average press coverage and a perception of a strong local party with a strong, capable leader as an alternative to the current BRS party. True to his RSS roots, he spoke passionately about the nation, the state and his faith. Under his fearless leadership, both Sanjay and the party’s other leaders took on certain Hindu-centric causes which earned them supporters from many sections of the Hindu community, especially in the state’s urban centres like Hyderabad.

The impact of a bold, no-holds-barred, fire brand local leader like Bandi Sanjay can be judged by the quick succession of political events, soon after he was removed from his critical ‘President of the State Unit’ position. Ever since Sanjay’s exit from his state post, there has been a surge of renewed energy in the rank and file of the state’s Congress party. A decreased motivation of the state’s BJP unit has played to the advantage of the Congress party and infused it with a fresh lease of life after almost ten years, since Telangana’s bifurcation from the larger, united state of Andhra Pradesh.

The Congress party’s prospects appear to have increased almost overnight, with a steady number of former BRS leaders now wanting to join the party or return to the party they had previously abandoned for the BRS. A few leaders happen to be important district-level leaders with considerable influence among their constituents, while a few others promise to bring in the much needed funds and local connections, that could benefit the Congress significantly in the upcoming eldctions. The party has suddendly woken up from its long slumber and appears to be infused with a new energy that was clearly lacking when BJP’s Bandi Sanjay was a force to reckon with.

Additionally, their recent win in Karnataka has boosted their morale. The party held an important national level CWC (Congress Working Committee) meeting in the state a couple of weeks ago, with Sonia Gandhi herself announcing the party’s “six guarantees” – a set of electoral promises for free or heavily subsidized goods and services, similar to the pre-poll package of “five gurantess” that appears to have led to its electoral success in the May 2023 Karnataka elections. Will its fiscally irresponsible poll promises nevertheless increase the Congress’s chance for a comeback in a state under their control for several decades? Not to be left behind, the BRS party has also announced several attractive economic schemes for the common man besides finalizing its list of candidates.

Under the circumstances, it’s disappointing that the BJP has not yet announced plans for the state including their election manifesto, strategy or a final list of candidates. Are they already late to the game; will the delay and the uncertainty impact its regional political fortunes, painstakingly built from the ground in about five years or so, by Bandi Sanjay, a strong leader who was not afraid of questioning the incumbent BRS party? Sanjay is a leader, whose hard work and dedication to the party were noted and praised by the BJP’s top brass including Prime Minister, Modi.

While the BJP is still second to the BRS as of now, it may only be a matter of a month, before its hard earned gains of the last five years are quickly reversed for the worse, with the Congress taking its place as the chief opposition in the state. The quick, meteoric rise of the Congress party in Telangana after Sanjay’s exit from the state post, renders the BJP’s state election prospects unclear. The change in regional leadership has already impacted the morale and enthusiasm of the state’s BJP cadre. Many had joined the party, renewed their commitment to it and taken on additional responsibilities under the strong, bold and fearless leadership of Bandi Sanjay. Will the cadre work with the same energy and fervour under the new leadership of Kishan Reddy, who has just three months ahead of the elections to recharge the state’s BJP and increase its electoral prospects?

Why did the BJP central leadership agree to engineer this tectonic shift in local leadership at a critical time? What is its real motive and its short term as well as long term goals for its presence in Telangana? Many theories abound with both seasoned analysts as well as novices, discussing the following possibilities:

1.  Focus on the 2024 national versus the 2023 state elections, while the BJP continues to build local strength in time for the next (2028) state elections, when it will be in a better position to aim for a win and call the shots.

2. The BJP’s long term plans of a steady growth and a solid, unwavering, committed vote bank that believes in the BJP’s larger vision for the nation Versus utilizing quick-wins /short-term rhetoric that Mr. Sanjay has sometimes been accused of.

3. A high level, tactical understanding with current Chief Minister K Chandrasekar Rao’s BRS party, that would result in an advantage for him at the state level and in an equal advantage for the BJP at next year’s national elections…thus accommodating the BJP’s laser-focused goal of returning to power at the Centre for a third term.

4. perhaps the BJP’s central leadership, lacks a deeper awareness of state-level caste equations, hence they are bowing down to pressure tactics from the wrong influencers or the party’s old guard, which is reluctant to adapt to new leaders and ideas?

5. Does the BJP intend to play a carefully considered caste card to its advantage? Bandi Sanjay, a Backward Classes leader, is unlikely to be supported by the higher caste, land-owning commuity leaders, who still exercise considerable financial and voting influence in the rural and semi-urban areas of Telangana. Hence, ensuring that Sanjay is rewarded for his commendable state level work at the grass-roots level, by giving him an important national position ….yet removing him from the state unit, so that the party’s short-terms prospects are not negatively impacted by possible in-fighting, back stabbing and lack of unity.

6. The Telangana Congress unit has historically been dominated by the Reddy community. In spite of weak efforts from the party’s leadership to invite and make members of other castes welcome, the party continues to be one with a heavy ‘Reddy’ presence. The BJP may have decided to field its Reddy leader, Kishan Reddy, to counter the community’s unified vote for the Congress, by wooing them with one of their own?

Whatever the BJP’s strategy, rationale, reasons or lack of… will its risky gamble of changing the state’s leadership, just ahead of elections, result in a calculated advantage or in a short term (possibly longer term) loss of faith in the party among the Telugu people of both Telangana and Andhra? In the latest news from the BJP, the party seeks to counter conspiracy theories that it has a tacit understanding with the BRS party, by announcing that it plans to field its strongest Telangana leaders against chief minister and BRS leader, Chandrasekar Rao and his family.

(Shivani is a freelance writer based in Vijayawada)

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