In 2014, against all odds PM Modi stormed to power, with BJP winning 283 seats and securing absolute majority on its own. 5 years back in 2018, BJP suffered its major electoral setback by losing Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Everyone hinted that it was a comeback of sorts for Congress, which at that time had won just 44 seats facing its worst drubbing since independence. But PM Modi got re-elected in an astonishing manner winning a further 20 seats taking the final tally to 303. This means state election results don’t dent his image as a performer. People vote differently in state Assembly and Lok Sabha election.
Coming to the present, BJP is poised to win back Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.
As of 5:15 PM, the BJP is leading in Madhya Pradesh in 165 of the 230 seats. The Congress is at a distant second leading in just 64 seats. In Rajasthan, the BJP is leading in 117 seats of the 199 seats and Congress is leading in 67 seats. Of the 90 seats in Chhattisgarh, the BJP is leading in 56 seats and the Congress is leading in 34 seats.
What does the resounding victory of the BJP in the Hindi heartland mean? PM Modi’s image will get bolstered further and his victory in 2024 is now a foregone conclusion.
What Will Happen To I.N.D.I Alliance?
Loss in 3 big states will a big blow to the alliance. Firstly it is not a alliance, but a group of opportunistic ‘kichdi’ that was formed to disturb a stable and performing government.
The alliance which was formed with much pomp and fanfare will definitely crack with every ingredient pinpointing each other for the loss. There will be mutual mistrust between the ingredients which will further favor a more stable and reliable NDA. Fight for the PM candidateship will further weaken the alliance making it a cake walk for PM Modi in 2024.
What Will Happen In Tamil Nadu?
Congress’s bargaining power will take a pounding. DMK will try to relegate Congress by giving probably around 5 seats. This means Congress will lose some the constituencies it won in 2019. Due to dissatisfaction, Congress may approach AIADMK looking for double digit seats. If a Congress-AIADMK alliance materializes, DMK will draw a blank just like 2014. Congress-AIADMK alliance may not do well as there wont be a chemistry between the cadres on the ground as the two parties have not had an alliance since 2001.
The biggest beneficiary would be BJP due to the above developments. The party can easily get anywhere between 15% to 20% which is unprecedented in Tamil Nadu. They may even win a few seats which will be beneficial for Tamil Nadu. Once this vote percentage is achieved, Mr. Annamalai will be within striking distance to become the Chief Minister of TN in 2026 where the party should aim for 30% votes in a four corner fight.
In A Nutshell
BJP’s victory in 3 big states is a shot in the arm for PM Modi’s aspirations to become PM for third time. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and his caste census rhetoric has not found resonance. The BJP’s gains in Telangana will be a source of strength for the party to expand its reaches further in the south.
Dr. Praveen Kumar is a clinician-turned-scientist who is passionate about writing on current affairs.
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