India-US relationship is expected to reach an unprecedentedly high orbit during the upcoming state visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the world’s largest economy. The expectation is that this time around, the immense range of opportunities created by shifts in geopolitical tectonic plates. As the global order is set to undergo a geopolitical churning, US – the leader of Western bloc is keen to forging solid ties with India – an emerging superpower. In this context let us look at why PM Modi’s visit to US this time will be significant for India and understand why it is India’s China moment.
India’s China Moment
Before understanding why Modi’s US visit can be termed as India’s China moment, we must first understand what is meant by China moment in context of Indo-US relationship. The current juncture could be seen as PM Modi’s “China moment.” Just like the geopolitical convergence between US and China in the late 1970s and early 1980s. At that point of time China was emerging from the shadows of Maoist China which was oriented on state control of economy. Deng who inherited this messy situation undertook reformation process which brought China closer with US. US had only recognized Taiwan at that point of time without giving recognition to People Republic of China.
Under Deng China normalized relation with US and adopted a new economic model which was termed as ‘Socialism with Chinese characteristics. In 1979 Deng Xiaoping visited US, which changed the trajectory for both nations and now in 2023 Modi is set for a historic visit which can have significant impact on relationship between both nations. Deng reminded us that geopolitics is a tool for building national prosperity, which is at the core of all power.
Deng quickly revolutionized the Chinese economy by obtaining access to Western finance, technology, and markets, propelling his country to second place in the world. Modi who puts nation first follows similar footsteps. Being the 3rd largest economy (PPP) and 1st in term of population, India is set for a stratospheric boom and with Western cooperation, this trend is set to be beneficial for both sides.
The capability of Modi to ‘bide his time’ for the nation to ascertain itself can be compared to Deng’s strategy of ‘waiting and growing’ and since coming to power Modi has shown the importance of maxi, ‘it does not matter whether the cat is black or white, only thing which matters is that whether it catches the mice.’
Modi’s US Visit
India’s ‘historic hesitations’ in relation with US has been set aside by the PM when he visited US last time. Since then, the ties have been on the rise. Until recently, the prevailing thinking in Delhi was that the US would never forsake Pakistan; now, Islamabad and Rawalpindi are peripheral to the American geopolitical strategy.
The United States now has bipartisan support for confronting the China threat and curbing Beijing’s potential hegemony over Asia. This is in line with China’s rising threat to India. This convergence of interest is set to become critical in shaping a new balance of power in Asia and beyond.
Since 2014 Indian interest has converged with the US as India is keen to shed its hesitations on private investments in favour of promotion of market-based economy. Military interest of both US and India has also converged: India and USA have signed security cooperation agreements, technology transfer agreements and has mutually taken initiatives to forge global alliances (QUAD, I2U2).
The Modi visit to Washington this month is expected to accelerate India’s march towards high growth, much as Deng’s visit to the US in 1979 did for China. Modi’s historic US visit is set to become a cornerstone in India-US relationship. India has emerged as a ‘stable island’ in a ‘turbulent world’ and for US, India is the only country which has the potential to counter China both economically and militarily.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming state visit to the United States, comes at a time when the US and India are facing several common challenges, including the rise of China, the threat of terrorism, and the need to promote economic growth. The two countries are expected to discuss ways to cooperate on these issues during Modi’s visit.
The visit is expected to focus on areas of cooperation, such as defence, trade, and technology. The US and India are already close defence partners, and they are expected to deepen their cooperation during Modi’s visit. The two countries are expected to discuss ways to jointly develop and produce defence equipment, and they may also sign new agreements on defence cooperation.
The US and India are also expected to discuss ways to increase trade between the two countries. The US is India’s largest trading partner, and the two countries have a trade deficit of over $20 billion. The US is hoping to reduce this trade deficit by increasing exports to India, and India is hoping to attract more investment from the US.
The US and India are also expected to discuss ways to cooperate on technology. The two countries have a strong foundation for cooperation in this area, and they are expected to discuss ways to collaborate on research and development, and to share information on emerging technologies.
In addition to these key areas, the US and India are also expected to discuss other issues, such as climate change, counterterrorism, and human rights. Modi’s visit is a significant opportunity for the US and India to strengthen their relationship and to address the challenges that they face together.
Not Without Caution
Even though India-US relation is set to hit new heights, the recent development has not been without caution. India is a country which has seen weaponization of dollar and meddling in internal affairs by the Western nations. From the experience of sanction regimes and vaccine nationalism, India is still navigating the relationship with the US. The new development in this context is thus a welcoming one, even amidst caution, India is emerging as the core pillar in US strategic vision and with right caution India is set to harness its China moment.
(Anand Krishna is a Kerala-based lawyer and a columnist.)
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