Voter turnout in Tamil Nadu and Bengal, phase I – This is due to the Election Commission. Hats off to the Election Commission for doing a phenomenal job despite so much pressure from all quarters, including from the Supreme Court. SIR is the hero & EC is the boss of Indian Elections. For the first time in Indian History – 85% in Tamil Nadu and 92% in WB. In certain areas, it has crossed 95% in WB. Yes, imagine 95%. The EC BLO have proved that they are the gatekeepers and custodians of our democracy. Now, let’s analyse:
A. Whether there was Vote Chori – Answer is NO.
B. Whether there was EVM manipulation – Answer is NO.
C. Whether there was an election favouring the Central Government – Answer is NO.
D. Whether in Tamil Nadu & West Bengal-Phase I Election has been successfully conducted – Yes.
E. Whether common people’s faith in elections and democracy is present, it’s at an all-time high, irrespective of the results.
F. Whether the SIR exercise is required as a necessity – it’s an Emphatic success – right medicine for our Democracy.
G. Whether EC has captured the hearts of people beyond the candidates- Yes, today every voter is proud of EC & our democracy.
Impact of Vijay
Vijay has made an impressive debut. Even if it’s 0 or 2 to 7 or even 8 seats that he gets, he has proved that in his debut election, his party has done extremely well. It’s quintessentially clear that he is most definitely the disruptive factor in this election in TN. Now let’s analyse:
A. Whether Vijay will become Chief Minister & form the government with a simple majority – Answer is definitely NO.
B. Whether Vijay party will cross 1 crore voters – Just might – every possibility indicates only that scenario.
C. Whether Vijay will himself win in Perambur or Trichy East: probably yes, at least in one seat, definitely.
D. Whether Vijay will earn the tag as the Vote cutter – Yes – including that of disrupter in Chief
E. Whether votes for Vijay have consolidated to such an extent that he will be a recognised party – Yes
F. Whether in many seats his candidates will get a deposit – 50% of the seats, nearly 125 seats, TVK will lose the deposit.
G. Whether Vijay will form an alliance with ADMK or DMK- in case of hung assembly- Slightly in favour of ADMK or abstention.
H. Whether Sengottayan will win – Yes, so will his supporters – that will be the seats TVK will win
I. In how many seats will TVK come second: At least 38-40
J. In how many seats will TVK win: 6-8 maximum.
Stalin CM & DMK gameplan
Confident & undefeated & determined with positive outlook. DMK has an immediate advantage of narrative, media power, advertisement, and even on websites, on YouTube, in their favour. Anti-Modi is DMK. Booth-level DMK strength is impenetrable. Money, Money & more money & in this election – DMK has spent money like never before.
Despite owning the narrative, it could do nothing against Vijay’s popularity & EPS grassroots campaigning. 2019, 2021, 2024 – decisive dominant victory by DMK, but this is where it stops. DMK was marching as unopposed & was unquestionably the victor. But now, despite it being a three-way contest, DMK is facing heat due to its own mishandling of the women’s issue, law & order & drugs in the state. Now, let’s analyse:
A. Whether there is anti-incumbency – Definitely YES. So much anger
B. Whether the DMK will get majority & Stalin continue as CM – Answer is clearly NO.
C. Whether DMK with coalition will form the next government- NO
D. Whether DMK combine as an alliance will get beyond 100 seats – NO
E. Whether DMK will cross 43% vote share – NO
ADMK – Original Thalaivar of TN is MGR
This is his party. 12 defeats in a row – EPS now emerges as the single-point leader of AIADMK & also that of NDA. Post February, the pickup & the true engine of the old actual ADMK against DMK could be visible on the ground. Despite all the factionalism & politics, EPS controls the show & NDA.
Less in number, more in quality – NDA campaigning gelled seamlessly & beautifully on the ground at the grassroots compared to DMK & its coalition. For this, hats off to ADMK & EPS. EPS did something no other politician did in this election. Connect to grassroots, more specifically, farmers & labourers in rural areas.
EPS successfully ensured the core base of ADMK & NDA is still intact, which was the point of jealousy & envy of DMK & their allies. On the campaign trail, EPS has shown that he is a master strategist and campaigner, with grassroots connect. He proved one thing – there can be no replacement for campaign hard work & visiting people. His flight took off & hit the peak at the right place, right time with right people – his core voter- the humble self-made farmer across Tamil Nadu villages. South & Kongu belt campaigning was simply superb, especially the people’s warmth towards his rallies & campaign. All pass; EPS echoed with Amma Canteen.
The ultimate straw was DBT of Rs. 5,000 & free refrigerator. Unfulfilled promises of DMK ensured that EPS connected this beautifully in the campaign. Best highlight was EPS reply to Udayanidhi about his Sasikala remark & attack against Udayanidhi about his sexcapdes. This hit back against DMK & Udayanidhi flipped the game as it supercharged the most bankable ADMK vote base.
The introduction of TTV by EPS was the ultimate surprise. Rural people, especially in Kongu & South, were shocked to see both EPS & TTV in a single Van campaigning, which further brought a sense of optimistic signal to the ADMK core voter base that revitalised the question of stability & bankability towards EPS & NDA combine on the whole. This, coupled with severe anti-incumbency, is in favour of the party of the true Thalaivar of Tamil Nadu- MGR. Now let’s analyse:
A. Will EPS be able to break the jinx of continuous defeat – this time, YES
B. Will ADMK form the government with a simple majority – Yes. ADMK will be the single largest party in this election.
C. Has consolidation of party leadership helped EPS & ADMK – Yes, it brought in stability, continuity & removed the cloud of ambiguity over leadership in ADMK.
D. Increase in poll percentage factor to help NDA – slightly yes
E. EPS will be the next CM & continue for the next 5 years – Yes.
F. Did Fridge do the trick – Yes, along with sustained Campaign & dedicated hard work with targeted grassroots connect with masses
G. Has ADMK retained its core vote base – in rural areas, largely YES.
H. Did alliance arithmetic & combination work – Seamlessly on the ground, there was fantastic coordination in grassroots.
I. Whether EPS & TTV & Anbumani Vs Sasikala & Ramadoss – causing damage in ADMK outcome: Dent is there but not hurting that much as in 2021.
J. Whether in Perception battle: ADMK lost & concentrated on vote share arithmetic-Who won? ‘Baldoil’ comeback made the difference & the balance tilted perception in favour of EPS – grassroots, self-made leader in rural TN – where it matters the most.
Arithmetic & Numbers – How ADMK Wins Despite Vijay Factor & DMK Money Power
This is mind-boggling. For the first time in the history of Independent India, TN had witnessed a solid triangular fight with the highest voter turnout in the history of the State, pull of Vijay star power being decisive. In this three-way contest in rural areas, Vijay gets 20-25% & 4% with NTK. Remaining between DMK & ADMK & TVK & NTK loses deposits. In cities – Vijay TVK- in certain seats gets 30% & wins with more than 50% in 2 seats.
Sengottayan & his people win in 3 seats. That’s all. Vijay gets 1.25 crore votes out of the total 4.75 crore votes polled. However, the arithmetic is in minute details. DMK won in 2019, 2021, 2024 & other elections as they received solid backing from new voters, a certain section of women, non Vanniyar & Gounders & Dalits after 10.5% reservation, 100% consolidation of minorities & anti-Modi votes in favour of DMK.
In this election, due to anti-incumbency, DMK’s vote share is below 40% as the anger of the public is visible. Entry of Vijay splits minority votes & anti-Modi votes straight in the middle. Non-Vanniyars & Non-Gounders as a caste consolidate with ADMK. Farmers with ADMK in rural areas. The invincibility of DMK has been smashed in the face & the glass ceiling has been shattered to smithereens with the EPS grassroots campaign. ADMK vote share is intact.
It plays out like this – in most of rural areas – in more than 185 seats, where it’s the real deal. Out of 100% of total votes polled:
- ADMK: 38%
- DMK: 36%
- TVK: 20%
- NTK: 5%
- Others: 1%
In this context, vote disruption is caused by TVK, wherein the majority of DMK votes are dented & pierced by TVK.
In layman’s terms, out of 10, 7-5 votes of DMK go to TVK & only 2-4 votes of ADMK go to TVK.
This disruption affects the incumbent, especially when the minority vote consolidation is split right in the middle, helping the ADMK, as their traditional core voter base is unaffected.
Also, TVK vote consolidation is split across 234 seats, peaking mostly in urban areas. TVK has vote consolidation but not vote concentration, which ensures that the vote doesn’t convert into seats in many areas, but will certainly be the key disruptor in chief, outcome favouring ADMK.
However, the margin of victory in many constituencies – more than 40 seats- will be less than 1000 votes, leading to many recounts and election petitions filed in the Madras High Court.
The aforementioned scenario points in one direction – in that of ADMK victory with less margins.
Therefore, ADMK emerges as the clear winner with a simple majority & ADMK is the single largest party & EPS becomes the CM.
B Jagannath is an advocate at Madras High Court and has authored the book The First Native Voice of Madras.
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