As the Lok Sabha elections draw near, political parties are gearing up, with established ones already announcing their alliances and gradually revealing their lists of candidates for various constituencies.
Discussing the distinct political landscape of Tamil Nadu, one cannot overlook the intriguing winds of change blowing through the state. These winds carry not only the fervor of the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024 but also harbor aspirations for the 2026 state legislative assemblies. In the realm of Tamil Nadu’s political discourse, a common refrain among the populace often echoes the need for a third alternative apart from the entrenched Dravidian parties.
Let’s ramp up our understanding by identifying who the key contenders are in the field.
Actors Turning Into Politicians
Following the passing of prominent political figures like J Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi, many individuals have sought to fill the void, actors such as Kamal Haasan launched his party, Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), Rajinikanth for a period of time flirted with the idea of entering politics before retracting his decision, and in February 2024 actor Vijay launched his political venture under the banner of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).
Vijay’s political inclination has been a subject of conjecture, with questions arising about whether he will tread the traditional Dravidian path or carve a new ideological trajectory for himself. His stance on issues such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) are similar to the existing Dravidian parties, leaving observers pondering the true essence of his political agenda. Unlike Kamal Haasan, whose party appeared to be targeting Rajinikanth’s potential voter base for fragmentation, the MNM joined hands with the DMK in this election after the agenda concluded, reminiscent of a flock of birds returning to their mother and secured one Rajya Sabha seat. But the motivations behind Vijay’s political aspirations remain uncertain. Hope lingers that Vijay, with his insightful and logical approach, will chart a distinct course in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape, diverging from the familiar paths trodden by other actors turned politicians.
Old Wine Dravidian Parties
Firstly, we have the two well-established Dravidian parties: the DMK and AIADMK. Adding an intriguing twist, the DMK has solidified its stance, prepared to enter the elections with its coalition, the I.N.D.I alliance. This alliance comprises parties such as the Congress, both factions of the Communists (CPI & M), VCK, Muslim League, and KMDK. They are set to contest under the DMK’s rising sun symbol. On the flip side, the AIADMK finds itself in a precarious position after ending its alliance with the BJP, which stood shoulder to shoulder with for four years. Unable to align with its former ally, the AIADMK is currently seeking alliances, confirmed only with the DMDK, SDPI, Puthiya Tamizhagam, and Puratchi Bharatham parties. The challenge faced by AIADMK in solidifying its party was more significant than discussions about forming alliances. Only recently the party actively demonstrating their presence realizing the upcoming elections.
Sole Contender In The North – The BJP
In the northern part of India, the BJP has solidified its position with sure-shot resounding victory for the third consecutive time, and setting the stage for the upcoming 2029 elections. Meanwhile, in Tamil Nadu, the presence of the BJP has surged notably ever since former IPS officer K Annamalai assumed the role of party president. His distinct approach to critique, coupled with his articulate communication of ideas, has captured significant attention among the youth and political circles in the state.
Recently, Annamalai has risen as a significant figure in the political landscape of Tamil Nadu, particularly the news media went behind him for clarity content. His “En Mann En Makkal” padayatra has traversed through all constituencies creating impact, serving as a platform to elucidate his party BJP’s stance. He emphasizes development-oriented politics and takes a firm stance against prevalent social issues such as corruption, nepotism, and drug abuse. The parties’ commendable strategy initiative, exposing DMK through the “DMK Files” series of corruption related audio recordings, revealing incriminating evidence. Additionally, a former DMK functionary, Jaffer Sadiq, was implicated in a drug scandal following a police bust , has garnered considerable attention. This well-crafted narrative has effectively shifted the focus from ‘Anti-BJP’ to ‘Anti-DMK,’ providing the DMK with a taste of its own medicine. This strategy seems to be resonating more effectively with the public sentiment on the ground.
Following the 2021 state assembly elections, where the DMK emerged victorious, the BJP strategically positioned Annamalai as the youthful face and party president for Tamil Nadu. Since then, Annamalai and the BJP have demonstrated their effectiveness as the primary opposition force against the Dravidian parties. This was evidenced by the smooth alliance formed between the TN BJP and various other parties, including the Tamil Manila Congress led by GK Vasan, AMMK led by TTV Dinakaran, New Justice Party led by AC Shanmugam, IJK led by Ravi Pachamuthu, Kamaraj People’s Party led by Tamilaruvi Manian and finally AISMK led by Sarath Kumar has merged his party with the BJP. Additionally, AISMK, headed by Sarath Kumar, has united with the BJP. Furthermore, there’s an expectation that PMK, led by Ramadoss, will soon join the coalition, although it’s important to note that the alliance isn’t yet sealed, still changes are to be expected.
Will Annamalai’s BJP Breach The Dravidian Wall?
The answer to this is yes, BJP in Tamil Nadu is confirming the narrative set is destroying slowly in the state, has experienced a substantial surge in its electoral support according to recent opinion polls. These polls have indicated a dominant presence for the BJP in the state, with varying percentages reported by different agencies:
- Chanakya – 22%
- Times Now – 20.4%
- India Today – 15.3%
- Prashant Kishor – potentially up to 15%
- Puthiya Thalaimurai – 18.5%
- India TV CNX – projecting 5 seats
- Thanthi TV – 13%
- ABP – 11%
- Times Now ETG – 19%
- CNN News 18 – 13% with 5 seats
It’s important to note that alliances have not been finalized yet. It’s worth remembering that the BJP in Tamil Nadu only held a 3.5% share of the vote in 2019.
Updated List:
TN BJP in opinion polls Till Now:
Chanakya – 22%
Times Now – 20.4 %
India Today – 15.3 %
Prashant Kishor – up to 15%
Puthiya Thalaimurai – 18.5%
India TV CNX – 5 Seats
Thanthi TV – 13%
ABP – 10%
Times Now ETG – 19% and 2-6 seats
CNN News 18 – 13% and 5 seats…— இந்தா வாயின்கோ – Take That 👊 (மோடியின் குடும்பம்) (@indhavaainko) March 13, 2024
4 June 2024 – the day of counting/results which is also incidentally Annamalai’s birthday will tell us whether Annamalai’s efforts did indeed help the BJP to breach the Dravidian wall.
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