Is there a leader today in any opposition party who can emerge as a challenger? Is there a party that can take a formidable avatar to challenge Modi’s BJP in 2024?
Let me start with the so-called grand old party, Indian National Congress. The party has been in a crash mode for the last 8 years. It’s been reduced to almost a regional party today. It is a ruling party in just 2 states and is a primary opposition party in 11 states. The party’s Lok Sabha seats has been below 55 for 2 consecutive elections. There is a top leadership crisis in the party today with no credible leader that can become the challenger to PM Modi in 2024. Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi are caught up with the National Herald case now and whatever Shakti pradarshan that the Congress is trying to do today on the streets to bring in sympathy for Rahul Gandhi is not giving any political dividends to them for 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress party doesn’t have any chance to challenge Modi alone in 2024 unless some drastic top face change happens within the party which is very unlikely.
Aam Aadmi Party has done some smart moves and is the only party that spans across two states in India next to Congress. Arvind Kejriwal is shrewd but nowhere near to being a challenger for Modi in 2024. However, he seems to have the potential to emerge as challenger to BJP in a couple of decades or so. AAP will need some time to consolidate and replace Congress as the main opposition party to BJP. AAP has been able to convince people with some of its freebie politics but that can’t be a template they can keep using every time and everywhere. They need to come up with schemes and policies that will sound genuinely beneficial for the public. Very importantly, they have to shed their image as a sympathizer of Khalistani forces and seasonal Hanuman Chalisa party that rest of the time appeases minority. Their upward trajectory will depend on whether they can hold on to Delhi in the next assembly elections. That will be their litmus test.
The next parties are the TMC, TRS, NCP, DMK etc. that have leaders aspiring to become Prime Ministers and posture themselves as contenders to the top post but don’t seem to be anywhere near it for 2024. Each of one of these parties don’t have traction in any other state outside their primary states. Their leaders don’t have any following today outside their primary states. They are being heavily challenged even in their own states as we speak. How will they capture the imagination of the voters in the run up to 2024 is a million dollar question!
The only thing that all these opposition parties can do is to gang up against Modi and fight the Lok Sabha election as a Maha Maha Gatbandhan but this is also not as easy as it sounds. Congress will want to lead the Gatbhandhan claiming they have a pan-India voter base but Mamata Banerjee also wants to be the leader. TRS, AAP and BJD not attending the recent meeting called by Mamata Banerjee for deciding on the Presidential nominee shows some possible cracks already. Moreover, the fact that Farooque Abdullah’s name has come up for the post of the President speaks volumes of their political farsightedness. Also, the Indian voter is so matured and politically savvy today thanks to social media that he or she will never prefer a khichdi government at the Centre.
At the same time, BJP also should develop a strong leader and face of the party in West Bengal, Bihar and Rajasthan. Karnataka needs much more focus. They are already looking good in states like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. The moot point is that BJP should continue to strengthen their weak points and not become complacent.
The opposition parties will try out direct and indirect ways of bringing the Modi government to its knees on every decision they take or on every scheme they roll out, the recent one being the Agneepath scheme. They might make a dent here and there but are unlikely to be a formidable challenger to Modi in the upcoming 2024 elections. It will be Modi all the way!
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