2024 will not be a very happy year for the I.N.D.I Alliance, especially if you take it as one single united Opposition which was what the constituent parties envisioned it to be. In this piece, I will try to dig into which party in this alliance is actually working for its success wholeheartedly.
With only around three months to go for the Lok Sabha elections, the dot dot alliance seems to be still waiting for the green signal in a railway platform with several of its bogies not fully ready for the journey while the Vande Bharat of BJP is speeding ahead comfortably nearing its destination. The Congress holds a “Hain Tayyar Hum” (We’re ready) rally but they don’t look as tayyar as they should be with the dotted alliance still debating on seat sharing.
The TMC feels that they are the only party that can give a fight to BJP on West Bengal. There is a fight going on between Congress and BJP in that state. On one hand Congress publicly says that TMC is working like BJP and on the other side one TMC leader says Congress is behaving like a Dalal (broker) of BJP. The TMC hurriedly put forward Mallikarjun Kharge’s name for PM candidature which seemed to surprise Congress who was trying to position Rahul Gandhi against Narendra Modi. The grand old party chose to keep mum. Mamata Banerjee probably didn’t want Nitish Kumar to lead as she herself wanted to lead this alliance. Arvind Kejriwal is silently having side conversations with didi. Therefore, it is very clear that the TMC is not helping the dot dot alliance much for its success.
In Maharashtra, there is a fight going on between two Sanjays, one in Congress and one in Udhav Shiv Sena. Both are claiming to be the best party to defeat BJP in Maharashtra. On the other hand, the Senior Pawar has kept his legs on both the boats. He stands with the dot dot alliance while his disciples stand with BJP. That is a smart move. Eventually, he will go with the winner. If BJP wins, I will not be surprised if all NCP factions again merge and become one happy family. By creating all this confusion NCP, Udhav Shiv Sena and Congress are tried hard to help BJP sweep the state in 2024 and therefore are not honestly working to see their alliance succeed.
Down south, DMK is issuing controversial statements after statements which are impacting the prospects of success of the alliance, especially the Congress, in other parts of India. They don’t seem to care even after the recent Hindi Heartland state results and are continuing to play the politics that will benefit them in Tamil Nadu. The jibes at Hindi speaking people are proving to be a big embarrassment to the dot dot alliance with Nitish Kumar having to react to them angrily during an alliance meet. Even RJD party had to issue a statement. DMK themselves are in troubled waters with two of their Ministers caught in the corruption net ending up losing their seats. The recent public ire on their shabby handling of the flood situation has forced them to just focus on saving their fort instead of the alliance interests.
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar just avoided a coup and stopped his party from breaking and Tejaswi becoming the CM. It looks like he has started feeling that his priority now is to save his position in his state before caring for the alliance in which he is anyways not getting any importance and didn’t even get the Convenor role that he aspired for leave alone the PM candidature.
In Punjab, AAP is not going to let Congress in although they might be a little considerate with sharing some Delhi seats as they are anyways losing popularity there. It is a fact that their immediate goal is to capture the Congress space in the states in order to expand as they cannot clearly beat the BJP. Given these circumstances, how can one expect them to sacrifice for the dot dot alliance’s success?
The Left parties, although being irrelevant, would also not do lot of sacrifices in Kerala as that is the only state where they have presence and they have to save their identity which they have lost totally in West Bengal too.
Finally, the Loksabha elections will be a big test for Congress to prove that they are still relevant as a national party. They don’t have any other go but to fight with their friendly parties for more seats in their states which they will not give. They will also not be able to sacrifice a lot as that will be counterproductive for them which makes them an unwanted elephant in the room for the regional parties who want to go pan-India however ludicrous that might be but having a dream is not a bad thing. Therefore, Congress cannot also wholeheartedly do what is in the best interest of the alliance.
Based on all of the above issues, I conclude that the only parties that are honestly working for the success of the I.N.D.I Alliance are the other parties lead by Vaiko, Thirumavalavan who don’t have too much influence unfortunately. Goes without saying that it is going to be a very happy new year for BJP and NDA. Some DMK spokesperson in some national TV debate in their usual abusive boring style said that even if Bhagawan Ram contests in Tamil Nadu people will not vote for him. I am not sure about that as after seeing their work during the floods, their popularity amongst the public is diminishing.
The I.N.D.I. Allies have yet another big political decision to make, more important than seat sharing – whether they should attend the consecration of Ram Janmabhoomi Temple in Ayodhya on 22 January 2024 or not. Any decision that they take is bound to corner them one way or the other. Although Lord Ram might not be contesting elections himself, he will be elemental in this Lok Sabha election. Let us see on whom Bhagawan Shri Ram showers his blessings!
Ananth Mahadevan is a political commentator based in Bengaluru.
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