The BJP’s hopes for a ‘Naya Kashmir‘ seem to have faltered as exit polls predict a hung assembly in Jammu and Kashmir. The Voter poll projects 40-48 seats for the National Conference-Congress alliance in the 95-member house, while the BJP’s performance in the Valley remains weak. Despite efforts to promote peace, prosperity, and development in the region over the past five years, these initiatives failed to convert into electoral success. While the BJP may secure 27-31 seats in Jammu, it struggled in the Valley, where it had no representation in 2014, signaling disappointment for its ‘Naya Kashmir’ vision. So, what went wrong? Let’s analyze.
BJP’s utter failure to score in Kashmir has three main reasons.
1. Inability to understand the local politics.
They tried to use the mainland politics template on Kashmir, which would never work. The decades and centuries of indoctrination will not go away just because you built some roads and organized a few events. They’ll happily use it and still throw you out. The army has done thousands of projects under Sadbhavna. Still, they are attacked with active support from locals. Since it should have been clear that over-the-top pampering and welfare measures were not going to help secure the popular vote, the same effort and money should have been invested in bringing ousted Kashmiri Hindus back, even if it meant making new societies and townships. You have thousands upon thousands living in Jammu and around in shanties and tiny houses. Those who migrated back in the early 90s. Make them good houses, give them amenities, and settle them down in Kashmir.
You’ll never be able to win the local Kashmiri’s affection because you are a Hindu party. How is this not clear to the high and mighty of political decision-making? The fact remains that you cannot win on development, and you cannot win on your identity. So do what your opponents have been doing for decades. That is to use the demography to your advantage. Let Kashmir have its Hindus back and create at least a somewhat level playing field. You’re fighting with your hands tied behind your back and still throwing resource after resource at them hoping they’ll consider your requests. They won’t! Period.
2. Poor Communication
BJP created and promoted the worst communication and social media influencers when it comes to Kashmir. Almost all of them are turncoats who just want to ride the wave and enjoy prominence, benefits, and popularity. The Kashmiris knew it, they knew it, everyone in India knew it, and even their original masters knew it. That’s why no one took them on seriously or even bothered to counter them aggressively. Because everyone knew they would come back into the fold the moment winds changed. Only the BJP didn’t seem to realize it, or maybe they just ignored it.
And it’s such a critical point because it shows aspects of the BJP to local Kashmiri voters.
BJP cannot identify true leaders. If they are promoting these opportunists, then they are ideologically not on strong ground and will go ahead and support anyone ready to sing their song for a few months and dollars. That leads to insecurity as a supporter. Taking a call to support the BJP in Kashmir is a huge ideological and risky decision. To doubt a party’s selection of representatives does not bode well with voters.
It’s time BJP looked into this and understood that communication is a serious game today and has a massive impact. What is being said, when it is being said, and most importantly who’s saying it matters a lot. Do you think these turncoats and opportunists will ensure your goodwill? Absolutely not. It’s the opposite! They’ll ruin whatever little you’re trying to do.
3. Lack Of Focus On Jammu
Most of the billions the BJP spent on Kashmir to woo the voters should have been spent on Jammu. Develop Jammu as a dream destination. I’m not saying back off from Kashmir. Yes, development is required. But rather than serving caviar and French wine daily, maybe simple food should have been enough. On the other hand, if you invest heavily in Jammu, the organic voter base will become solidified and confident, and the general sense of gracefulness will also prevail.
Let Kashmiris see what they can get if they don’t side with secessionist and anti-India parties. Rather than giving them the confidence to do whatever, they’ll always be pampered at the cost of Indian taxpayers.
Conclusion
In the end, I’ll say that a basic difference between politicians and military minds is their pragmatism and acceptance of reality and facts.
No amount of sloganeering or long-line Indian Army chants by locals will ever make a military commander be lax on his operations or take a threat lightly. They know how to accept the facts and deal with it.
Meanwhile, politicians get swayed by the noise and melodrama and assume that the smoke screen is the real front. Maybe it’s part of being in politics that you cannot say harsh truths. But it would be good to at least accept them and move accordingly.
It’s not just a lesson for the BJP but for the entire country on how voter preferences turned out. Giving is not always the best policy when the demands are not what you’re offering. In ideological arenas, you think you can bring in a couple of schemes and woo them with goodies, but that is not happening.
Will Modiji vote for AIMIM if they build roads in his city? That should clarify everything!
Major Manik M Jolly, SM, is a decorated Indian Army veteran who served both in the Infantry and with the Military Intelligence. Apart from being a social entrepreneur, he is a strategic analyst and columnist.
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