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What Happened At Gaza’s Al-Ahli Al-Arabi Hospital? Airstrike By IDF Or Misfire By Hamas? Here’s The Proof

October 19, 2023
Balaji Subramanian

The explosion/bombing of the Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza must be studied carefully as the entire region sits on a powder keg with Hamas trying to win the perception politics with more bloodshed and psyops. 

It must be noted that the attack came against the backdrop of US President Joe Biden’s visit, perhaps in person tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to show some restraint as public opinion has begun to sway away from Israel as pressure mounts on Arab nations. 

It is impossible to not draw a parallel between Biden’s visit to Israel and President Donald Trump’s visit to India because there was an attempt made to steal the limelight away and discredit the visit with the unfolding of the Delhi Riots in 2020.

In Israel, a clearer picture is emerging after the dust of rhetoric has settled.

After the alleged attack on Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza, in which approximately 500 people were reportedly killed, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have vehemently denied that the incident was the result of an Israeli airstrike. According to IDF officials, they assert that it was a failed rocket launch by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that struck the hospital grounds in Gaza and caused civilian casualties.

However, the most difficult task right now is the dissemination of correct information as the war of words and the narrative building has created a smoke screen around what had really transpired.

The same could be said when the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack had taken place. Within a very short period of time, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) was blamed for the terror to deflect the blame from Pakistan and the same is being done to blame Israel for this unfortunate incident. 

Already, several Hamas supporters in the Arab world and in the Western media have squarely blamed Israel for this incident. The fact is a genuine effort is being made to undermine the murderous attack that Hamas had carried out one week back and focus on the Israeli response. Already, Democratic Congresswomen Ilhan Omar and her fellow socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have started an “incredibly high” level of “misinformation in all directions”.

Getting A Clearer Picture: Tal Hagin’s Thread

Numerous videos, primarily shared by Israeli activists, were accused of featuring a misfired rocket as the cause of the incident. However, it’s important to note that these videos were from 2021/22 and unrelated to the recent event.

On the other hand, many Palestinian activists and organizations have claimed, without any uncertainty, that Israel was responsible for the airstrike. Their assertion is primarily based on reports from the Ministry of Health, which is governed by Hamas. It’s worth considering that the Ministry of Health may have its own interests that could influence the accuracy of their claims.

Several open source intelligence accounts have revealed that Hamas was aware that the rocket launched by PIJ at approximately 6:59 PM local time on 17 October 2023 had misfired, and this misfire coincided with the initial reports of an attack on Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza. But Palestinian activists and leaders immediately started to cling to whatever narrative suits their interests regardless of who is actually responsible.

There have been several instances when Hamas fired its unreliable misguided rockets which are made of material and technology that give quantity but not quality and have proved to be disastrous for the people of Gaza. But fake news has the ability to travel fast in a region where there is a serious trust deficit. The people of Gaza have no choice but to trust what Hamas says and in this case, Palestinian activists and organizations stated that that Israel was responsible for the airstrike.

But how can one trust Hamas which has a history of using civilians as human shields?

Hence, it is important to look at the evidence without passion or prejudice. The X thread of Tal Hagin, who is an investigative analyst with a focus on the Israeli & Palestinian conflict has given some compelling evidence. Here are some of the excerpts from his X handle @talhagin.

  1. At 19:00 the military wing of Hamas took responsibility for the rockets fired at southern Israel. It’s important to note that both Hamas and the PIJ have very extensive arsenals of rockets.
  2. At 19:10 Al Resalah, a television channel reported that “The occupation targets Al-Ahly Baptist Hospital in central Gaza City, causing a large number of injuries” (This was posted at the same time the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) took responsibility for a rocket barrage).
  3. IDF shelling of targets in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood was reported at 18:58 4. IDF airstrikes were reported in northern Gaza at 19:12 (No IDF strikes were reported between 18:58 and 19:12).

Tal Hagin notest that the first images from the hospital appear at 19:25 and that the first video of the strike appears at 19:41.

Based on his analysis of a live stream published by Al Jazeera, he notes that the scene is set at 18:59, just before Hamas claimed responsibility for the launch. He points out a single rocket ascending into the sky. Given the rocket’s fuel duration and the subsequent explosion, Tal Hagin says that it’s likely that it was an R-160. 

We can see from the video that the rocket appears to malfunction or explode at 0:10, with another explosion occurring at 0:15.

Based solely on this video, there is a significant probability that this rocket experienced a misfire, resulting in a partial destruction of its payload, ultimately leading to a powerful explosion. However, it’s important to address the question of whether this video captures the explosion at the hospital.

Tal Hagin was able to triangulate the location of the explosion based on the analysis of OSINT done by Abu Ali English (@AbuAliEnglishB1) and GeoConfirmed. Solar panels located near the site helped in identifying/confirm the site of the explosion. 

Tal Hagin has also analyzed images and footages from the site of the explosion. 

He notes that a photograph of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, published by the Gaza-based news agency “Shahab,” does not depict any “significant” damage to the hospital, let alone it being “completely destroyed.” 

In the image, there is no conspicuous crater that one would typically associate with an IDF airstrike. Instead, it suggests that the cars at the scene exploded, especially those in the vicinity.

Furthermore, upon analyzing a graphic video of the casualties, he was able to pinpoint the location (highlighted in yellow). This open area, crowded with people, appears to have been directly hit by shrapnel from the rocket and the exploding vehicles, resulting in gruesome and horrific injuries.

A video shared by @AbuAliEnglishB1 shows bread and piles of supplies, which indicate a substantial gathering of people during the explosion, notes Tal Hagin. 

After reviewing the footages of the missile launch, graphic images provided by Palestinian channels of dead bodies and information ascertained from Open Source Intelligence OSINT, he confirms that the misfired projectile landed in the courtyard of the hospital where hundreds of innocent fleeing Gazan refugees had gathered resulting in massive causality.

Tal Hagin concludes that a misfired rocket by Hamas/PIJ was responsible for the explosion at the hospital.

Information Disclosed By IDF

The IDF officials also disclosed that they had intercepted a phone call that indicated Hamas knew immediately that the hospital had been hit by a PIJ rocket launched from within Gaza. However, despite this knowledge, Hamas opted to initiate a media campaign blaming Israel for the incident. This was a misfired rocket by Hamas which is known to use collateral damage that it had inflicted on its own people as a point to take advantage.

Addressing a press briefing, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said, “According to our intelligence, Hamas checked the reports, understood it was an Islamic Jihad rocket that had misfired, and then decided to launch a global media campaign to hide what really happened.” 

During the press briefing, the IDF spokesperson also presented aerial photographs as evidence that the damage to adjacent structures resulted from a misfire of a rocket by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and not from an IDF airstrike. The spokesperson emphasized, “Our analysis of the aerial footage confirms that there was no direct impact on the hospital itself; the only damage occurred outside the hospital, in the parking area.“

In the same press conference, the IDF official exhibited images of the hospital’s burnt parking lot. Regarding the damage in the parking lot, Hagari explained that it was caused by the rocket’s impact and the significant amount of rocket fuel that remained in the projectile as it fell short.

He pointed out that if it had been an Israeli airstrike, “we would have observed craters and structural damage to the building, neither of which were evident in this incident.“

The IDF official also displayed images of Israeli airstrikes, showing substantial craters with meter-wide diameters, whereas, in the hospital attack in Gaza, there were no apparent signs of crater formation or significant structural damage to the buildings.

It’s worth emphasizing that Israel has deployed the Iron Dome defense system to intercept the Hamas rocket attacks, particularly those that lack precision and are aimed at residential areas. Due to the significant cost difference between the Iron Dome interceptors and unguided Hamas rockets, the system is often used to counter only the most threatening projectiles, allowing many of the unguided rockets to fall in uninhabited areas rather than engaging them mid-flight. It’s important to note that in the past, misfired rockets by Hamas have tragically landed within their own territory, causing civilian casualties.

Significantly, since the commencement of the Israel-Hamas conflict, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been releasing video footage of precise airstrikes. In many instances, the IDF has issued warnings to Gaza residents, advising them to evacuate buildings and structures that were slated for airstrikes just minutes before the attacks. After analyzing aerial footage from both before and after the attack, especially in daylight conditions, numerous experts have suggested that the hospital parking lot damage was most likely the result of a misfired rocket originating from within Gaza.

Furthermore, it’s noteworthy that even nearby clay tiles and scaffolding remained undamaged, a scenario that would be highly improbable in the case of an aerial strike, as many observers have pointed out. Also, photos that are available online clearly suggest that the missile projectile fell into an open courtyard filled with Palestinian refugees causing grave injuries and the hospital itself was not directly hit and only suffered cosmetic damage.

As of now, Hamas is most probably responsible for this tragedy but the truth has now taken a backseat and politics have taken over and the blame game has started over the dead bodies of the innocent.

(Balaji is a political commentator and columnist. He tweets @LaxmanShriram78)

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