With Parliamentary elections in sight in Dhaka, the violence that has erupted in Bangladesh from opposition BNP, supported by US embassy in Dhaka, would have consequences not only in India but across South-east Asia.
Recently, TIME magazine published the story of Sheikh Hasina and her political career since 2009 in the Bangladesh office. This was however not received well by the ruling Awami League party and those who hold Sheik Hasina in high regard.
During her tenure in Bangladesh as PM, Sheik Hasina faced a lot of challenges, especially the post-COVID economic recovery, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
Under Sheikh Hasina’s regime, Bangladesh has seen good developments economically and with regard to infrastructure in the country. Many forums previously have written about how Bangladesh has fared under the Hasina regime. Here’s one East Asian forum that has talked about Bangladesh’s progress under Hasina.
Here’s an Economic Times article on how Bangladesh has registered 5% Growth during the Pandemic and how India was contributing to a larger extent to its eastern neighbour.
Not only economic angle, security has also seen good improvements under Sheik Hasina where under her governance, strict actions have been taken against radical extremism.
Compared to the rise in militancy in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2006, after the Awami League returned to power with a majority, and especially post-2017, there has been a gradual reduction in terrorist activities, and from 2020, it has almost come down a lot. To support this, read the US State Department report on 2020 Bangladesh terrorism.
The last recorded terror incident in Bangladesh was in 2019. And look at the trend after 2016, the attacks in Bangladesh have come down a lot.
Despite showing a lot of progress in the economic field and security, none of these parts got highlighted. TIME magazine’s only focus has been the authoritarian Hasina regime and how Bangladesh is turning authoritarian under it. Here’s the link to what is covered in the TIME magazine.
Now who is behind this instability in Bangladesh? This is not to be taken lightly as an ordinary protest against a govt, but this has the potential to change the regional dynamics of the Indian Ocean itself with the growing influence of China in South Asia.
TIME MAGAZINE And CIA CONNECTION
When TIME magazine brings out such a piece just a few months before elections, and the West has been voicing concerns about fair and free elections in Bangladesh, one can note that there is a bigger role of the USA in this instability that is created in Bangladesh.
Peter D Haas, the current US Ambassador to Bangladesh, has been very active across the state ever since he landed in Dhaka. Ever since he arrived in Dhaka, there has been a flurry of curbs on Visas for Bangladesh by the US who they think are undermining the democratic election process. Look at this US-generated report.
It clearly appears that the CIA through its media outlets in the form of TIME magazine, the Ambassador to Dhaka, State Department imposing visa restrictions, is creating instability in Bangladesh.
Not only that, Peter D Haas has maintained deeper relations with Jammat-e-Islami and the extremist Bangladesh Nationalist Party. It is said that 22 staff in the US embassy in Dhaka are said to be directly involved with Jammat.
Since then, there have been several instances of violence in Bangladesh during the protests organized by the BNP party, and in response, the ruling government has taken action against the ones involved in violence by arresting them. Not only do we see a rise in violence, but BNP started to demand the toppling of the Hasina govt and planting a caretaker government till the next election. All these events have seen a sharp increase with Peter D Haas’s presence in Dhaka. References: Here and here.
October 28th BNP Rally protest saw one of the worst violent events in Bangladesh. There was even an internet connectivity disruption just a day before the BNP rally as well.
Opposition engaged in violence and the death of a policeman arrested.
Why Is Bangladesh’s Stability Necessary. What Are The Consequences Ahead for India & Indo-Pacific?
With these turn of events in Bangladesh, it is not at all good news not only for India but also for the entire South East Asia.
*Security Threat to India from terrorist groups across the border and rise of NE insurgency:
The entire northeast region of India will become vulnerable to not only illegal infiltration of migrants but also to arms and explosives from Myanmar to India. Several terrorist groups are operational across the border which can be a cause of concern for India’s security. Out of the various operational modules, the ARSA terrorist module looks to be a dangerous one that is active across the Bangladesh/Myanmar region.
This terrorist group was the mastermind in pushing illegal Rohingya immigrants into India and a well-oiled network in the Northeast was facilitating documents that would aid their entry into India.
It is also imperative to note that, there is joint India-Bangladesh co-operation in countering armed Kuki infiltration to Mizoram. Additionally, Bangladesh RAF has also acted timely based on intelligence tip-off on ARSA group key terrorist financiers and logistical suppliers.
With our India-Bangladesh-Myanmar region right now having the presence of various terrorist and insurgent groups, any change in Bangladesh’s ruling regime can have a greater impact on the region’s security.
It can not only expand radical extremists across the Bengal-Assam region but can also make the Siliguri corridor vulnerable to Indian security. This was the American plan for India during the Cold War when they directly aided East Pakistan to cut off the north-east from the mainland through brutal military force. Today, we have radical extremism which can pose a threat to this region.
*America Military base in St. Martin’s Island:
The talks on St. Martin’s Island existed during the time of East Pakistan when it was alleged that Ayub Khan had planned to convert St. Martin’s Island into a US military base to counter India in the region. During the time of East Pakistan, Paul Nixon and Henry Kissinger’s administrations were directly against India and therefore, wanted to take control of the East Pakistan region completely with a base in St. Martin’s Island. But the 1971 war foiled the American plot in the Indian Ocean.
The same talks emerged during the 1980s again to counter the regional influence of India, but they did not materialize. Once again, the same Island is now a mainstream topic that America is eyeing a base there, this time not directly aimed at India but as a countermeasure to China’s military bases expansion in the Indian Ocean.
While, the US State Department has officially denied that the US has any such plans, with the growing influence of China in the region, the threat of a US military base in St. Martin island cannot be ruled out if the opposition comes to power.
Americans made a similar move in Sri Lanka in February 2023 when the US Air Force landed in Sri Lanka. CIA chief William Burns also visited Sri Lanka during the same time. The US has a plot to establish a military base in northern Sri Lanka even though later they officially said that they have no plans to establish a base there. With India having an integrated military command centre in the Andaman Islands, and militarization of the Nicobar Islands, any foreign military bases in proximity close to India is definitely a sign of huge concern with India being the regional power across the Indian Ocean.
*Presence of Oil, Hydrocarbon, and Natural Gas in the Bay of Bengal:
The Indian Ocean has a large amount of unexplored rich Oil, Gas, and minerals which has been the target of foreign powers. Each big power always wanted to dominate the Indian Ocean. During the colonial period, one can understand how European East Indian companies took over key ports from the Middle East to the South China Sea and projected power from the Horn of Africa to the Straits of Malacca.
The Bay of Bengal is strategically crucial for India as several major ports of India from Kolkata to Chennai are along the BOB coastline.
Of late, China has recently tried to exert influence in this region through Myanmar, and in response, India along with its partner US and Japan have also conducted naval exercises in this region. With the rise of India in this region and expansion of China, and the bilateral interference of the US in India’s neighbourhood, the Bay of Bengal regional dynamics are on for a change. Here’s a good research article on Oil and Natural Gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal study material. Here’s one more relevant article.
This research article explains the Bay of Bengal Oil and Gas reserves which is even larger than Saudi or Iraq’s presence. Recently, ExxonMobil which is one largest Oil and Gas companies has expressed interest in exploring gas in all open deep water offshore blocks.
“The proposal comes when Bangladesh is about to finalise its model PSC, under which international oil companies will be offered larger output shares and increased gas prices.”
With the Russia-Ukraine war impacting the energy across world, and the current ongoing Israel-Hamas war, developing economies like India and states like Bangladesh cannot afford high prices for importing energy. Therefore, turning self-reliant on the energy front becomes critical. With Americans entering the scene, the rise of India, and the expansion of China, the political stability in this region therefore becomes paramount.
*Not only Bangladesh, America seeks to influence Indonesia’s February elections to have a strong sphere of influence in Indonesia/Bay of Bengal strait:
The National Endowment of Democracy, which is notoriously known as a CIA front org, is planning for coloured revolution in Indonesia seeking regime change in Feb 2024 elections as per various reports based on a leaked document.
The National Endowment of Democracy was founded in 1983 and its purpose in the literal sense is to engage in covert activities in other countries for CIA to have plausible deniability in any covert operations. This article explains how NED was set up after all the negative revelations on the CIA. A month ago Human rights activists accused Indonesia of supplying weapons to military Junta.
There are US sanctions on Myanmar when the military junta took over and they are aided by China weapons. The US has been monitoring nations that have been supplying weapons to Junta and in that it has been monitoring Indonesia in this aspect. Look at the below map to understand America’s strategy:
If America can get their puppet leader in Bangladesh, and Indonesia, with Thailand, now seeking greater relations with Western democracies, it can serve as a tangent to corner and encircle Myanmar and curb them from China’s influence.
However, the consequences of this would be major as that could potentially lead to a rise in extremism across India’s eastern regions into the South China Sea and can also have a major impact on India. To relate this, when America landed in Afghanistan during the war on terror and controlled the Hemland province of Afghan where Opium was being produced in tons (similar to the East Indian Company and British Empire rule time period in Afghan), it was financing all the major bomb blasts that struck India between 2005 & 2013.
Similarly, when America invests funding for its geopolitical objective, and supplies necessary explosives and weapons, there is a very high risk these could land to extremist elements on India’s eastern border which can then later penetrate mainland India to cause havoc.
Therefore, even before the May 2024 Indian general elections, Bangladesh elections in Jan 2024 and Indonesia elections in Feb 2024 are very critical to India’s security from the seafront and extremist elements.
(Intel User is a defence enthusiast)
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