Speculation is rife that AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) is going to ditch Narendra Modi for Rahul Gandhi for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to get minority votes.
With political strategist Sunil Kanugolu having worked with EPS and is currently working for the Congress, this speculation has been gaining credence.
The EPS-led AIADMK alliance polled nearly 40% in the 2021 Assembly polls. Booth-wise study will show that a majority of that 40% were predominantly Hindu votes.
On the other hand, DMK polled 45% to emerge victorious and out of which say 20% in absolute terms were minority votes. A rough calculation would would make one arrive at this number – for every 8 Hindus who voted for EPS, only 5 voted for Stalin.
Yet DMK emerged victorious as parties like NTK and AMMK led by TTV Dinakaran spoiled the chances for ADMK led alliance in many seats as they ate into ADMK’s vote bank.
EPS has to understand minorities never backed ADMK over the last 50 years. It is consolidation of the dominant Other Backward Communities, Scheduled Castes plus Forward Community votes which helped AIADMK rule the state for a record 31 out of 50 years of its existence.
EPS lost 2021 not because minorities did not vote for him but because TTV Dhinakaran led AMMK sabotaged AIADMK’s chances in more than 20 seats and the AIADMK had no strong regional satrap to win the KTCC region covering Kanchipuram, Tiruvallur, Chennai and Chengalpattu districts where AIADMK lost 35 out of 36 seats.
Inability of EPS to accommodate TTV Dhinakaran and inability of the party to groom a satrap in Chennai were the reasons for the defeat, not minority votes as minorities would not have voted for AIADMK anyways going by past history.
EPS must realize that there is no anti-Modi wave in Tamil Nadu now like 2019 and there is a huge underlying anti-incumbency and Hindu grouse against the incumbent DMK government.
This anti-incumbency could potentially swing 5% more in NDA’s favour in 2024 and help them take a lead over UPA provided the alliance exists till 2024.
If EPS accommodates AMMK along with BJP, PMK and numerous smaller outfits and leads NDA in TN in 2024, he would be spearheading a strong united NDA that can potentially repeat 1998 LS polls outcome in 2024 by winning 25+ seats and 45%+ votes.
If EPS ditches Modi-led BJP, DMK alliance will romp home in all 39 seats with even just 40% votes and EPS stands the risk of finishing third behind Annamalai-led BJP. In such a scenario, both the BJP and the AIADMK will score ducks with 20-25% votes each.
EPS stands the risk of losing many strong satraps in future even in Kongu region to BJP if he ditches Modi for Rahul. These satraps along with TTV, OPS and BJP could emerge as a far bigger electoral combination for EPS to tackle.
EPS indirectly contributed to the growth of BJP big by letting them stand alone in the recently concluded local body polls. With anti-Modi wave waning out, EPS risks the chance of letting BJP emerge as the second largest party in 2024 and he getting relegated to the third place by going with Rahul.
EPS proved he is a sensible and a shrewd administrator as a Chief Minister. He also proved to be a jack of the political trade by successfully keeping the party together in the years after Jayalalithaa.
Hope he proves his shrewdness and political deft once again by not ditching Modi for Rahul.
None can pull off another an MGR or a Jayalalithaa in AIADMK henceforth. Both of them were phenomena. Though EPS can’t become one of them, he can rise in his stature only if he wins 2026. And to win 2026, he needs Modi by his side all the more than Rahul given the fact BJP is growing fast in Tamil Nadu. He gains by being with BJP because of the latter’s ability to complement AIADMK electorally through consolidation of Hindu and anti-DMK votes.
If EPS-led NDA could garner 8 Hindu votes for every 5 garnered by DMK in 2021, it can easily garner 9 or even 10 Hindu votes for every 5 DMK is going to garner in 24 by aligning with Modi-led BJP given the changing ground realities and the emergence of BJP in Tamil Nadu. BJP is no longer a liability for AIADMK given the changed dynamics. In fact, it could tilt the scales in AIADMK’s favour big time. It is up to EPS to realise this and act accordingly.
United we stand, divided we fall.
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