All of us have seen that the political dynamics have changed quite a bit post the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Now we have an emboldened opposition, especially the Congress, who thinks they have an upper hand and is charged up to corner the Modi Government from every quarter at the drop of a hat. Unfortunately for Narendra Modi, a series of unfavorable incidents have cropped up like the sudden increase in terrorist attacks in Kashmir, the NEET and NTA issue, train accidents and so on. Narendra Modi has dealt with such issues smartly earlier too but this time he and his party have to reinvent themselves given they are a bit lesser than majority this time in the Lok Sabha and voices of criticism will be shriller with the passage of time. When a strong person gets a little weaker, the people who used to fear him earlier will come out and challenge more boldly than ever. Narendra Modi has not shown any sign of weakness so far be it in managing his main allies, the JDU and TDP, allocating his cabinet ministers etc. which is a good start albeit the coming years are going to be tougher than the last 10 years for him.
In the next 4 and a half years, these 3Cs are going to influence the prospects of BJP and the opposition – Caste, Communication and Courage. By caste, I obviously mean the different castes in Hindus as no politician talks about castes in any other religion in India. The Opposition is going to play hard on the caste card. They will try to play to the galleries and promise anything under the sun to get the votes of particular sections of the Hindu community be it in the upcoming assembly elections or the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. They will go all out to ensure that BJP fails to consolidate the Hindu votes in anyway. They anyways have the full support of the minority communities especially the Muslims. BJP must counter this challenge with shrewd strategies and might have to play to the galleries also whether they like it or not. If BJP has to win, they don’t have any other go but to get the caste equation right in every single election going forward. There will be no room for any mistakes. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah understands this very well.
The second C, Communication, is another vital skill that BJP has to master and take to the next level. Congress is already showing signs of better coordinated communication which continues even now post elections. They seem to have a better coordination and well thought out communication strategy. I am not talking about the morality of the message being communicated but the way in which its being communicated to the general public. Agniveer issue raised by the Congress is a classic example. Congress confidently and aggressively raised the Agniveer issue. They first said in Parliament that Agniveer is not being compensated. Then they changed the tone, after the Indian Army rebutted with data. Now they go on to say that insurance is not compensation and that Agniveers are not being treated equal to any other Jawans.
We clearly saw that BJP has not been good at rebutting this allegation in a creative, forceful, data driven using various modes like on-ground communication, social media videos other than the same video of Agniveer Ajay’s family saying they actually got the money. At least, I didn’t see them cornering the Congress aggressively and taking an upperhand in this narrative. The fact that some retired army professionals rebutting vehemently and some also raising concerns on the manner of rollout of the Agniveer program at this very same time shows that the Congress has been able to raise some questions and confusion in the minds of public through some coordinated effort and its now upon BJP to counter and bring confidence in everyone’s minds through a comparatively better communication strategy.
Although BJP core supporters will not have any doubts, the issue is of the public at large. Agniveer is just one example and there will a barrage of such arrows that the opposition is going to shoot at BJP. Modi’s party has to start being doubly proactive and shoot at the opposition first with issues that will not give them room to come up with fresh salvos through a re-invigorated communication strategy and stronger communication team. They have the resources and skillsets to do this. It’s a matter of coming up with a good communication plan that is forward looking and that has already factored possible future issues and portrays BJP as having the comfortable upper hand always as was the case earlier.
The final C is Courage. Modi and BJP must have the courage to go all out to tackle the problems that opposition creates even before they create. There will be “andolans”, country wide strikes, yatras, instigations taking various forms which the emboldened opponent forces will courageously orchestrate. Everyone knows that protests are not illegal but this time Narendra Modi has to crush any politically motivated, anti-state, non-genuine endeavors with an iron hand without bothering about international repercussions or any loss of image internally, like Lee Kuan Yew did for Singapore, before they become mass movements which go against the interests of the country itself.
Also, a section of the nation loving Hindus is expecting Narendra Modi to move from soft Hindutva to hard Hindutva and he has to take some bold measures in order to avoid losing this segment totally this time. For e.g. implementing UCC, CAA, NRC etc. is going to be very tough and needs lot of political courage especially with a stronger opposition filled with vengeance that is ready to go to any extent to dethrone Modi after failing for a third time in 2024. It’s true that to do something right needs more courage than to do anything by hook or crook when one doesn’t have any moral accountability and the agenda is just to beat someone. Therefore, I conclude that the 3Cs – Caste, Communication and courage is going to significantly influence the prospects of the political parties in the run up to the next Lok Sabha elections in 2029. Let’s hope Bharat emerges the winner at the end of the day after all the expected turbulence in the coming years!
Ananth Mahadevan is a political commentator based in Bengaluru.
Subscribe to our channels on Telegram, WhatsApp, and Instagram and get the best stories of the day delivered to you personally.