In 1991, India was facing a balance of payment crisis. Economists had coined the term “Hindu rate of growth” to refer to the slow growth rate of the country. Many wrote off the story of India exactly after 40 years of Independence. They categorically stated that India is in deep quagmire and it can’t be brought back until the Hindu civilizational thoughts are removed. At that time PM Narashima Rao boldly undertook the reforms and India saw an economic boom. The above events showed the resilience of Hindu mind. The Hindu mind when freed up from all bondages did wonders which enable many poor and middle class families move up the socio-economic ladder. India’s 1991 story is very important not only to understand its economical impact but also on the political impact which a Hindu Mind can create.
Silence not high decibel narratives work
With recently concluded elections, the entire left Liberal media with clear patronage from opposition parties have once again started writing the end of story for BJP for 2024 elections. Elections are not won or lost based on writings and throwing opinions on media. It can clearly help in building a narrative but until at the ground level i.e booth level workers are not excited even the greatest leaders can bite the dust. There are so many instances of it happening in elections. There are many silent indications which the liberal media usually misses when covering the results if it is against the BJP. Liberal media portrayed the 2018 verdict of Karnataka as the greatest defeat of BJP but just a year later BJP sweeped Karnataka in Lok Sabha elections. There were many silent indicators which BJP learnt in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly election results and worked on the feedback loop which resulted in a massive victory.
In light of this, let us discuss the silent indicators which voters have given in the recently concluded Tamil Nadu and West Bengal Assembly elections.
Rise of Hindu Votes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal
1. A miss in consolidation of minority votes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: Many pollsters have written a lot of about consolidation of minority votes in support of anti BJP parties in both the states. But what they missed is even after 95% consolidation of minority votes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, the winning coalition was unable to cross the 50% vote share. Remember West Bengal had 30% of minority voters and inspite of that TMC was unable to cross 50% vote share. There is still a huge potential Hindu vote bank who are waiting to jump over to the BJP if any religious binary event happens like banning Durga puja, Hindu celebrations etc. In Tamil Nadu, the minorities (both Muslims and Christians) have consolidated themselves behind the DMK while the Hindu vote bank is largely split in terms of caste.
2. Conslidation of Hindu votes in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal: The pattern which emerged for post 2014 is votes are cast differently in national and state elections. BJP is really handicapped when coming to the state elections as it repeatedly failed to maintain the vote share it got during Lok Sabha polls and also lost a huge percentage of votes. For example: In Maharashtra, Delhi, Haryana, and Jharkhand, BJP has lost somewhere between 10-19% of votes it got during national elections. But the same did not hold good in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. In Tamil Nadu, the NDA improved its vote share to the extent of around 18-20 % while in West Bengal BJP has lost only 2% of votes. It clearly shows that Hindu consolidation started as and when the minority consolidation started. There are some seats in Tamil Nadu like Kadayanallur and Vaniyambadi where even though there are huge minority votes, the Hindu candidates irrespective of parties has won due to counter consolidation. So it seems the avenue of consolidated Hindu votes has started picking up even in non traditional states for BJP.
3. The Rise of subaltern Hindutva: BJP which had traditional upper caste vote base, started breaking ground among non-Brahmin caste voters in Tamil Nadu which is even more in the case of West Bengal. Take the case of Western Tamil Nadu belt in which BJP had some nominal presence over the years. The region completely consolidated behind NDA in the current elections. Also, the 4 BJP MLAs do not belong to upper caste i.e Brahmins. In West Bengal SC/ST voters have voted enmasse to BJP. So, the claims of BJP being a part for upper castes only has been broken.
4. Politics moving to bipolar nature: Earlier, the political scene in different states were multi-polar. Now, it can be analyzed in clear terms that country is moving towards bipolar politics in different states. In case of Tamil Nadu, it has been bipolar for a long time with third fronts only biting the dust. In Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the BJP has an identical vote bank with UDF and AIADMK respectively. Hence, the BJP is finding it tough to bring its core vote bank under its fold.
It can be safely assumed that there is a rising Hindu vote bank in the non traditional BJP states. These states are embracing Hindutva to a certain extent but it will need a different flavour from the north for it to give political dividends. It take a few election cycles to be completely visible.
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