Vijayawada: Yet again, in the never-ending game of political speculation, it’s a case of an old story bubbling with hitherto unconfirmed alliance-related gossip ahead of A.P’s elections in the first half of next year. Amit Shah’s recent meeting with N Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party has sparked speculation about a potential political alliance. This echoes the 2014 election scenario when the TDP and BJP formed a pre-poll alliance in Andhra Pradesh. If the rumours turn out to be true, would the alliance be a pre-poll or a post-poll one with guaranteed “external” support of all bills in parliament? What would the negotiations and conditions between the two parties look like? Who would stand to gain more – the regional party or the BJP?
In the curious case of Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is in a highly enviable yet challenging position of confirming alliances with A.P-based regional parties. The two major players (the currently ruling YSRCP and the previous victor TDP) as well as the
up-and-coming Jana Sena Party (JSP) are all wooing the BJP for support and partnership. It’s an advantage for the BJP yet a case of being saddled with too much choice, which can be confusing at times!
The leaders of all three parties – YS Jagan Reddy of the YSRCP, N Chandrababu Naidu of the TDP, and Tollywood star Pawan Kalyan of the JSP, are in touch with the BJP’s top brass. The BJP on its part appears to be carefully monitoring current political, economic, and social indicators in A.P periodically to assist it in selecting a 2024 election partner – will the numbers & data indicative of a certain trend, be the decisive factor in the selection of an electoral alliance OR in the absence of any definitive/conclusive data, will it come down to the personal charisma, diplomacy, negotiation skills, and personal rapport of the three A.P leaders with the decision-makers of the BJP?
The current “external” support on all its bills, schemes, and proposals that the BJP enjoys from A.P’s ruling YSRCP party has worked well for it, based on a quid pro quo arrangement and certain favours exchanged between the two parties. However, the YSRCP’s political baggage and its leader YS Jagan Reddy’s personal legal issues may become problematic in the near future, weighing the BJP down rather than furthering its presently meagre prospects in A.P.
The YSRCP’s disproportionate emphasis on minority and lower caste communities, coupled with allegations of corruption and hooliganism, has led to a financially unsustainable welfare approach. As a result, the state has faced bankruptcy and dwindling support from various segments, including the middle class and government employees facing delayed salaries. The party’s populist policies have also alienated private businesses, industrial, and educational investments in the state, causing a further decline in the state’s revenue and loss of employment opportunities for the state’s residents. To add to the woes of Jagan Reddy and his YSRCP party, key leaders of the party are also embroiled in the Delhi Liquorgate scandal.
Additionally, Jagan Reddy’s personal problems with the law cannot be ignored or wished away – he is still being pursued by the ED and the CBI for as many as 31 registered cases for which he was previously lodged in jail for more than a year. The cases range from massive financial embezzlement to those with criminal charges including a particularly sensitive one involving the brutal gangster-style murder of his paternal uncle. The YSRCP’s loss of support among sections of society and the state’s unenviable financial and employment statistics are not satisfactory social, financial, and economic indicators for next year’s elections.
On the other hand, the two principal opposition parties, the TDP and the JSP appear to be staunchly united in their goal of defeating the YSRCP at any cost. The JSP’s leader, Pawan Kalyan is a popular Telugu actor with a wide fan base, and the TDP supremo, Chandrababu Naidu is a seasoned politician and an experienced business-savvy leader known in both Telugu states for his administrative skills, his futuristic visionary thinking and his balanced development/growth-oriented goals, focusing on balancing modern technology with traditional economic occupations. The BJP is spoilt for choice. Will it lean towards the YSRCP or the TDP-JSP combine for its future in A.P?
For the people of Andhra, the nail-biting suspense of an old, rather dramatic, ongoing story becomes a daily-news item, with no confirmation in sight, at least till the end of this year. A.P.’s upcoming elections are scheduled for the first half of 2024 and the BJP with all the bargaining chips in its hands, may decide to keep all three parties guessing till just a few months before the announced election date. After all, what’s the rush when everybody wants an alliance with you and the ball’s in your court?
The BJP’s political status in the neighbouring Telugu state of Telangana could not be more different! While it enjoys more popularity in Telangana than it does among the masses of A.P, it is yet to firmly establish itself in the state and currently does not have officially declared electoral partnerships for this year’s state elections, to assist it in its prospects against the still popular and formidable Bharat Rashtra Samithi party (BRS) led by the populist leader, K Chandrasekhar Rao, and his family. Telangana’s state elections are scheduled to be held before the end of this year.
An informal alliance or tacit understanding with Naidu’s TDP party in both the Telugu states may help the BJP with the already established TDP cadre’s utilisation for crucial campaign work such as voter statistics and grass-roots outreach programs. Notably, A.P’s YSRCP party does not have a presence in Telangana while the much older TDP party does have a base in the state and in the past had enjoyed wide support among the people of Telangana, before its bifurcation from the larger, united state of Andhra Pradesh.
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