This is part 2 of the series on Opposition Unity. Read part 1 here.
The much-hyped Opposition unity meeting at Patna on 23 June 2023 turned out to be a damp squib and nothing more than a photo opportunity of heads of several parties coming together.
As expected Arvind Kejriwal wanted to hijack the meeting with his one-point agenda of extracting guarantee from Congress party in opposing the ordinance on services in Rajya Sabha.
Congress party was smart enough to duck away from giving any guarantee to AAP lest their local units at Punjab and Delhi would be up on arms against their high command.
As usual Lalu tried to bring humor into the meeting by asking Rahul to get married soon. The only conclusion that the meeting arrived at was that the next meeting would be held at Shimla in July 2023 which is now changed to Bengaluru.
Let us also recall the fact that this concept of Grand Alliance was tried and tested in 1971 Lok Sabha elections. The idea of putting one common Opposition candidate is an ‘old wine in a new bottle’. The then opposition parties namely Congress (Organization), Praja Socialist Party, Bharatiya Jan Sangh, Swatantra Party and several regional parties came together to oust the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and it was a failed attempt. Refer to the picture below of the performance of the parties which were part of the ‘Grand Alliance’ then. It would meet the same fate again in 2024 for the reasons listed below.
In 1971 the one-point agenda of the opposition was Indira Hatao (Remove Indira) and it failed miserably since India voted for a strong leader and the same agenda is being pursued to remove Narendra Modi from the Prime Minister post which would not cut ice with the public in 2024.
An average Indian voter is aware that these political parties are bereft of any developmental agenda or vision. It is for their own survival and their dynasty to flourish that they are uniting to fight against a man who has the vision to make India a vibrant $5 trillion economy and a global super power.
It is also important to understand the fact that for any Government to be stable in Delhi one of the two national parties need to have a minimum of 140 seats in the Lok Sabha. While the BJP under the leadership of Modi had crossed the magic number of 272+ on its own in the last 2 general elections the Grand Old Party could not even cross 10% of Lok Sabha seats in both the elections.
For the Congress to have any dream of unseating Modi from the Prime Minister’s chair its first focus needs to be on the states where it is in direct contest with BJP. There are 137 seats in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh & others where Congress cannot outsource its fight to any other party. While BJP won 121 out of these 137 seats in 2014 it increased its tally to 125 in 2019 pushing the fringe players like INLD at Haryana, CPIM in Tripura into oblivion.
Congress won just 8 seats in successive elections even after contesting all the 137 seats while BJP contested only in 132 seats in 2019. The reason for the free downfall of Congress party is its inability to set a narrative in these direct contests in spite of having a decent party infrastructure. The primary reason behind the Congress party’s victory in 2009 was the fact that it won 72 out of the 137 seats in 2009. There are no signs for the Congress Party to regain the lost ground in these seats.
The revival of Congress party in these 137 constituencies would also be directly impacting the saffron party and hence this should be the first focal point. As long as Congress party is unable to revive itself in this set of seats the dream of stopping Modi from occupying the PM chair for the 3rd consecutive time would only remain a dream.
While the 3rd forces are on the wane it is also significant to note that AAP is eyeing growth in these seats. Having achieved the national party status recently AAP would not leave the field open for Congress party in states like that of Gujarat & Goa where it has positioned itself as a 3rd entity. It is also important to note that AAP is dreaming to make inroads into states like Haryana, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan. It would be foolish to expect AAP to give a walkover for Congress since any revival of the Congress Party would shut the doors for AAP forever in these states.
Also, the infographics below showing the vote share in 8 states would indicate the Himalayan task ahead of the Congress party since it would need a swing of over 20% in many states to unseat BJP in 2024 which at the moment looks next to impossible.
The 8 charts that we have shared are for 124 seats and it clearly indicates that when BJP contests under the leadership of Narendra Modi the party is able to pull humungous support in comparison to the assembly elections. Even in states like Rajasthan where BJP lost in December 2018 it polled a mammoth 61.13% in the Lok Sabha elections held just 5 months later. Hence as we head into the 2024 Lok Sabha polls it would be BJP & the Prime Minister Narendra Modi who would proactively set the narrative against Congress in the states where it is in head on contest. Modi also knows that it is in these states that Congress would indulge in personal attacks targeting the Prime Minister which he would use to his own advantage.
The victory for Congress in states like Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have become the talking point for revival of Congress party in the national scene but the reality is the fact that both these states have always voted for a change every 5 years. It is pertinent to remember that ever since 2019 Lok Sabha polls there have been 21 states which had gone for assembly elections. Out of these 21 polls, 13 states have been won by BJP led NDA and in 12 states the Saffron party is running its Government either by itself or in alliance. Congress had won in just 2 states while it is a junior partner at Jharkhand. While regional parties like Trinamool had won in West Bengal and DMK in alliance with Congress had emerged victorious in Tamizh Nadu, it is AAP which had won at Punjab & Delhi and Left alliance triumphed Congress at Kerala. Hence there is nothing much to write home about the victories of Congress party.
To stay specific to states where Congress and BJP are in direct fights there have been assembly elections to 7 states post the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and out of these 7 states Congress had been able to win only at Himachal Pradesh while BJP could score a resounding victory in 5 states. It was in Haryana that BJP needed the support of JJP to form the Government after a hung verdict.
I am pretty sanguine that when the heads of Opposition parties meet there would be an informal discussion about these direct contests and how the Congress party performs miserably in these seats. They would also be aware that all the data points indicate that Congress is in dire straits in this set of 137 seats and only a magical revival would put BJP in backfoot which simply looks impossible and improbable.
Till such time opposition parties have the license to day dream.
JVC Sreeram is a political strategist and author and is the founder of Winning Elections.
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