A recent opinion poll by CNN News18 on Tamil Nadu’s electoral landscape has indicated a sharply competitive contest for the Chief Minister’s post, with AIADMK leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami marginally closing the gap with incumbent MK Stalin. The survey recorded a near tie, with Stalin at 40% and Palaniswami at 39%, reflecting a tightening race.
The poll further suggested that actor-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) has seen a slight dip in support, remaining below 14%. Analysts noted that if TVK’s vote share remains in the 12–13% range, it may not significantly disrupt the electoral balance. However, a rise toward 16–18% could split votes across both major alliances.
In terms of vote share trends, the AIADMK alliance has shown recent gains, edging past the DMK. This shift has been attributed to early candidate announcements, finalized seat-sharing arrangements, and the release of its manifesto ahead of rivals. The BJP’s allocation of 27 seats within the alliance is also seen as reducing perceptions of central dominance, reinforcing regional leadership under Palaniswami.
On key voter concerns, issues such as alcoholism and drug abuse emerged as the most significant, outweighing debates on federalism and language.
Seat projections place the AIADMK-led NDA alliance in a leading position with an estimated 115–125 seats, while the DMK is projected to secure between 104 and 114 seats. The findings indicate a notable swing compared to earlier estimates, suggesting a shift in momentum away from the ruling DMK.
CNN – News18 – Vote Vibe – Tamilnadu Opinion Poll @politicalbaaba @CNNnews18 #DMK #AIADMK #TVKVijay #NaamTamilarKatchi #VoteVibe #News18
DMK+: 104 – 114 seats (39%)
AIADMK+: 115 – 125 seats (40%)
TVK: 2 – 8 seats (13%)
NTK: 4% pic.twitter.com/Pz7SycGQsP— Harish M (@chnmharish) March 30, 2026
The survey, conducted with a sample size exceeding 16,000 respondents, also highlighted that governance performance remains a key voting factor, with public opinion sharply polarized on the DMK government’s track record.
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