As Tamil Nadu prepares for the crucial 2026 Assembly elections, political commentator Rangaraj Pandey provides an in-depth evaluation of the star candidates likely to shape the electoral outcomes. Drawing on historical voting margins, constituency profiles, and grassroots intel, Pandey’s analysis, offers a nuanced forecast of victories, challenges, and strategic shifts across major political camps in the state.
“Chanakyaa Analysis,” which blends historical voting data, ground-level intelligence (“cephalological input”), and constituency-specific factors, provides one of the most detailed early previews of the electoral battleground, covering over 80 high-profile candidates.
Key Star Candidates and Constituency-wise Forecasts
Let’s first look at the DMK.
The DMK Juggernaut: Certain Victories for the First Family and Staunch Allies
The analysis presents a formidable picture for the DMK-led alliance. Chief Minister M.K. Stalin is predicted to easily retain his Kolathur stronghold, a seat he won by over 70,000 votes in 2021. His son and Deputy CM, Udhayanidhi Stalin, is also forecasted to win again from Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni.
The DMK’s core leadership appears unshakable. Heavyweights like E.V. Velu (Tiruvannamalai, won by ~94,000 votes), K.N. Nehru (Tiruchirappalli West, ~85,000 votes), and I. Periyasamy (Athoor) are seen as certain winners, their massive victory margins and local influence creating “fortresses” deemed impregnable to opposition challenges.
Other key DMK ministers expected to cruise to victory include Anbil Mahesh Poyyamozhi, Geetha Jeevan (Thoothukudi), and Ma Subramanian (Saidapet).
S.M. Nassar (Avadi): With a formidable lead of over 55,000 votes, the senior minister is forecasted to clinch a hat-trick, irrespective of minor shifts in ministerial status or party dynamics.
Dharanidharan Anbarasan (Alandur): He holds a commanding lead of over 40,000 votes and is poised for another successful re-election campaign.
Senthil Balaji (Karur): Winning by roughly 12,400 votes, this influential DMK leader remains a central political figure destined for re-election.
K.N. Nehru (Tiruchi West): With an 85,000 vote margin in a strong party bastion, Nehru’s victory is almost guaranteed.
Anitha Radhakrishnan (Tiruchendur): Despite past challenges, Anitha has rebuilt significant presence with a 25,000-vote margin. Forecasts suggest sustained electoral success.
Ponmudi (Thirukovilur): Although previously a strong ministerial figure, uncertainty clouds his 2026 prospects due to strained party relations, predicting a tough battle.
Raghupati (Thirumayam): With a slim winning margin under 1,500 votes, his reelection chances are bleak given changing political tides.
Velmurugan (Panruti): Likely to lose in 2026, reflecting shifting local allegiances.
M.C. Sampath (Cuddalore): A narrow defeat by 5,000 votes in prior elections places him as a contender for a strong comeback in 2026.
AIADMK’s Mixed Fortunes: EPS Holds Fort, Others Face Uncertainty
For the principal opposition AIADMK, the forecast is a tale of two realities. Leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami (EPS) is predicted to hold his home turf of Edappadi, though Pandey notes a potential challenge if the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) fields a strong candidate.
Edappadi K. Palaniswami (Edappadi): The former Chief Minister won with an approximate 9,300 vote margin in a constituency with a sizable Vanniyar community. While facing challenges including the possible consolidation of opposition factions, he is still tipped to prevail.
However, the analysis highlights internal strife and slim past margins as major hurdles for other AIADMK stalwarts:
Sellur Raju (Madurai West): Despite winning by over 9,000 votes, he may face intense challenges, possibly leading to reduced margins.
KP Munusamy (Veppanahalli) – Won by 3,054 votes) is tipped to lose.
Ponmudi (Thirukoyilur) – Despite a large past win, faces doubt due to legal troubles.
O. Panneerselvam (OPS) (Bodi Nayakkanur): The former CM, remains a “million-dollar question.” His political future is clouded by uncertainty over which party or alliance he will contest from, if at all. In the previous election, he won by approximately 11,000 votes; expected to maintain electoral strength though candidacy remains to be confirmed.
SP Velumani (Thondamuthur) and Kadambur Raju (Kovilpatti) are among the few AIADMK leaders predicted to secure comfortable wins.
Jayakumar (Royapuram): After a sizeable defeat by over 27,000 votes, he may seek alternate constituencies with better prospects.
Kadambur Raju (Kovilpatti): Holds a comfortable margin of 12,400 votes and is projected to win again, though political alignments may cause shifts.
Vijayabhaskar (Viralimalai): Nearly 24,000 vote lead signals a safe seat for him.
K.A. Sengottayan (Gobichettypalayam): A durable political figure with multiple victories, maintaining a strong voter base.
BJP’s Uphill Battle: Annamalai’s Constituency a Key Question
The analysis underscores the significant challenges facing the BJP in making inroads into the state assembly. While the party is expected to improve its vote share, winning seats remains a tough ask.
The fate of K. Annamalai is a central focus. Pandey notes that Annamalai put up a spirited fight in Aravakurichi in 2021, losing by a narrow margin. However, the analysis strongly suggests he will change his constituency for 2026. His victory, the prediction states, is entirely dependent on which seat he chooses to contest, making it impossible to call at this stage.
Other BJP leaders like Nainar Nagenthiran (Tirunelveli) and MR Gandhi (Nagercoil) are forecast to have a “high chance” or a “safe” win, banking on strong local presence and the potential consolidation of the NDA alliance votes. Conversely, Union Minister L. Murugan is predicted to lose if he contests from Tiruporur again and is advised to seek a different constituency.
Individual Leaders of Interest
Some of the other leaders who are also in the fray include:
Seeman (NTK): Predicted to face defeat if he contests again from Tiruvottiyur. The analysis suggests he will likely change his constituency.
TTV Dhinakaran (AMMK): His prospects are put “on hold,” pending a decision on whether his party will join the NDA alliance or contest alone.
Vijay (TVK): The analysis confirms the actor-politician will contest but labels his chosen constituency a “million-dollar question.” Madurai and the Kongu belt are speculated as potential arenas, with his victory chances entirely dependent on the seat selection.
Congress: The party’s fortunes seem tied to its alliance with the DMK. While a leader like Selvaperunthagai (Sriperumbudur) is predicted to win, Hasan Maulana (Velachery) is forecast to lose.
Manoj Pandian: Navigating intra-party alliances and minority votes, Pandian’s fate depends on broader coalition formations.
V.A. Shanmugam: An influential educationist, he is expected to leverage his local support into electoral success.
Sarathkumar and Radhika: Star power combined with political groundwork makes them prominent candidates, likely to influence multiple constituencies.
Methodology and Caveats
Pandey repeatedly emphasizes that his predictions are not based on fresh polls but are a “rough calculation” derived from past data (2021 results), local caste equations, the strength of party machinery, and the analyst’s own ground-level assessment.
He issues a crucial caveat: these predictions are highly susceptible to change based on:
- Alliance Arithmetic: Final seat-sharing agreements between the AIADMK-BJP and within the DMK-led front could drastically alter calculations.
- Candidate Changes: A leader switching constituencies or parties, or being replaced by a family member, can upend any prediction.
- Rebellion: Internal party rebellions are flagged as a constant threat to sitting MLAs, even those with strongholds.
The Bottom Line
Rangaraj Pandey’s Chanakyaa Analysis sketches a political landscape where the DMK enters the 2026 election as the clear frontrunner, with its core vote base and leadership seemingly secure. The opposition’s best hopes lie in capitalizing on anti-incumbency at the local level, leveraging a strong NDA alliance, and forcing close contests in constituencies where the DMK’s victory margin was thin. However, as of now, the analyst’s crystal ball shows a distinct shade of DMK red across most of Tamil Nadu’s electoral map.
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