A comprehensive, large-scale opinion poll conducted across Tamil Nadu by news channel Tamil Janam and a few other organizations has revealed a landscape of significant dissatisfaction with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) government and considerable uncertainty among voters regarding alliance choices for the upcoming elections. The survey results point to a highly competitive and unpredictable electoral battle.
Key Findings: Sector-Wise Discontent With DMK Govt
The survey segmented voters by profession and community to gauge specific grievances:
Government Employees: A staggering 80% expressed a lack of trust in the DMK government, with only 20% supportive. This is attributed primarily to the handling of the old pension scheme (OPS) issue. Analysts noted that employees feel “insulted” and “deceived,” having been promised a restoration of OPS only to be offered a different scheme (TAPS) at the last minute. This segment, traditionally a vote bank for the DMK, is now seen as severely alienated.
Students: The government’s electoral promise of loan waivers for college students remains unfulfilled. Instead, the distribution of laptops – a scheme initiated by the previous AIADMK government but halted by the DMK has been restarted close to elections. This is perceived by many as a cynical electoral tactic, with students feeling used for votes. The survey indicates this has backfired, creating resentment. About 30% of them are supportive while 70% of the surveyed students said they did not trust the DMK government.
Unemployed Graduates: Among this group, there is reportedly 95% opposition to the DMK. The prevailing sentiment is that the ruling party is directly responsible for the lack of job opportunities, creating a “betrayed” mindset.
Auto Drivers & Housewives: These groups show a more split opinion, roughly around 50-55% opposition to the DMK. For housewives, issues like price rise and household expenses are major pain points. Auto drivers, being in daily contact with the public, absorb widespread political discontent.
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Alliance Dynamics: Coalition Partners Restless, Voters Confused
A major theme of the survey is the fluidity and dissatisfaction within existing alliances, particularly the DMK-led front.
Congress Workers: When asked about their preferred alliance, 61% of Congress supporters said they wanted their party to align with the TVK. Only 35% preferred continuing with the DMK. The primary reasons cited are a lack of respect from the DMK leadership, insufficient seat allocation, and a sense that the Congress is being stifled and not allowed to grow independently within the alliance. The “big brother” attitude of the DMK is a persistent grievance.
VCK (Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi) Cadres: Surprisingly, 55% of VCK supporters expressed a desire for their party to join the DMK alliance. 41% wanted to join hands with the TVK, and only 2% preferred going alone. This indicates a sizeable internal shift, driven by perceived slights to leader Thol. Thirumavalavan and a search for greater political space and respect.
AMMK Cadres: In a clear verdict, 86% of AIADMK supporters want their party to ally with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). 14% preferred the TVK, and no one (0%) wanted an alliance with the DMK or to go solo. The analysts linked this to cadre acceptance of Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s (EPS) leadership and a strategic understanding that the NDA is the only viable vehicle to defeat the DMK.
PMK Cadre: The survey found 91% of PMK supporters back the leadership of Anbumani Ramadoss, with only 9% supporting the faction led by his uncle, Dr. Ramadoss. This solidifies Anbumani’s position. The discussion indicated that the PMK is almost certain to join the NDA, a move seen as consolidating the Vanniyar vote bank behind the opposition front.
DMDK Cadre:Among DMDK supporters, 69% reportedly favoured the NDA, 21% preferred the DMK, 9% supported TVK, and 1% wanted the party to contest alone. There seem to be concerns about DMDK’s credibility due to inconsistent alliance signalling.
Assessment Of Opposition Performance
The survey also gauged public opinion on the effectiveness of opposition parties over the last five years.
On issues like the Thirupparankundram Karthigai Deepam dispute, 60% of respondents reportedly felt opposition parties had performed well, although it is noted that sustained protest activity was largely driven by the BJP and Hindu organisations rather than the AIADMK or DMK allies.
On Anna University-related protests, 83% of respondents felt the opposition had acted effectively. However, on sanitation worker and government employee protests, the opposition was widely perceived as absent.
It is observed that media coverage in Tamil Nadu has shifted in favour of the ruling party when contrasting the current environment with previous years when media outlets were more adversarial toward the government. The DMK’s long-standing engagement with media institutions has resulted in favourable framing and limited amplification of opposition narratives.
The Vijay Factor & Election Narratives
The rise of actor Vijay’s TVK is a dominant subtext:
According to survey-based observations, many women expressed openness to voting for Vijay’s party, even if they lacked detailed ideological alignment.
Analysts believe that while Vijay has significant personal popularity, especially among women and youth, he lacks a robust political infrastructure and grassroots organization. A mere “wave” based on star power is deemed insufficient to win elections, as historical examples like Vaiko’s MDMK in the 1990s show.
For a wave to materialize, his upcoming film “Jana Nayagan” would need to be a massive, content-driven hit like MGR’s films, which is uncertain.
His alliance choices (Congress at the national level? AIADMK/NDA at the state?) remain the biggest question mark and will significantly determine his impact.
However, it was also noted that DMK cadre continue to maintain household-level contact through welfare outreach and festival visits, which could influence last-minute voting decisions. It is possible that women voters may play a decisive role in the final days before polling.
A State In Confusion?
The survey paints a picture of a dissatisfied electorate, particularly with the incumbent DMK government on issues of governance, employment, and promises. However, this anti-incumbency has not decisively crystallized behind a single alternative due to:
Alliance Confusion: Major alliance partners like Congress and VCK have cadres openly preferring a switch to other alliance blocs, creating internal pressure and uncertainty.
Absence of a Clear Wave: While the AIADMK-NDA front appears consolidating, and the TVK is a disruptive new force, there is no overwhelming wave in favor of any one bloc.
Last-Minute Decisions: With key players like PMK, TVK, and the alleged presence of factions within Congress, yet to formally declare alliances, the voter remains in a “wait-and-watch” mode.
In toto, Tamil Nadu is witnessing personality-driven, rather than ideology-driven, voting behaviour. Manifestos and policy distinctions seem to matter less than leadership appeal, alliance arithmetic, caste considerations, and last-mile mobilisation.
While the DMK alliance is structurally strong, the survey suggested visible erosion among traditional support bases. At the same time, emerging players such as TVK were said to be benefiting from protest politics, celebrity appeal, and public fatigue with established parties.
The final outcome would depend heavily on alliance finalisation, last-minute voter shifts, and the ability of parties to convert public discontent into organised electoral mobilisation.
Overall, the stage is set for one of Tamil Nadu’s most unpredictable elections in recent times.
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