The post electoral analysis on the Telangana state elections has a telling story. Analysts and common people alike, are questioning the electoral result with many sharing the view, that most voters displayed a faith in a man called Revanth Reddy, rather than the party he represented. People voted for Revanth, a “Non-Congress” Opposition leader, who joined the Congress party, as late as October 2017, after more than twenty five years of association with Non-Congress parties, including almost ten years with the TDP party. The electorate had voted for a leader whose face was printed on all the posters; they had not necessarily voted for the Congress party.

The Congress won 64 seats to the BRS party’s 39 seats – just over the 60 seats required, to win a majority in the 119-seat Telangana Assembly. The Congress won on a combination of a strong anti-incumbency wave against a decade-long, two consecutive term rule of the BRS party and an absence of a state-wide opposition – the TDP party had chosen not to contest in the 2023 elections and the BJP had only recently made inroads in to the state’s politics.

This analysis and grim realization, has resulted in a less than jubilant, anti – climactic ambience in the party’s offices and amongst the party’s leaders and cadre. Barring an expected celebration of reasonable cheer in Hyderabad, there were no grand celebrations held at the Congress headquarters in Delhi or the sight of “senior” Congress leaders giving grand speeches with hopes for 2024. The scaled-back, constrained, rather muted congratulatory celebrations, have a story to tell.

The Congress party’s national as well as regional leaders, understand that the party’s lone success in Telangana, against the brutal background of a humiliating, dust-biting defeat, in large, important states in the Hindi heartland, was NOT a result, merely, of its own merits, creativity or ingenious techniques. Instead, the Congress’s lone success in Telangana was a combination of several factors, that gave the party an edge in the recent elections. The people of the Telugu states and their political leaders, understand this well.

The Congress party barely managed to overcome in-fighting, a deep rift between old and new timers and deep hostilty to a “Non-Congress” team leader. It managed to win over the BRS, in an election predicted to be a close call between the two parties, because of a strong anti-incumbency wave and the TDP party’s decision not to fight this year’s elections in Telangana. The BJP worked on increasing its vote share and accomplished just that – it increased its seats from a mere 1 seat in 2018 to an impressive 8 seats in 2023.

In all fairness, the state’s Congress chief (effective June 2021 onwards) and sworn-in Chief Minister as of December 7, 2023, Anumula Revanth Reddy, did put in a lot of hard work and plenty of thought, regarding the management of an unruly team, its finances, election strategy and seat allotment. Yet, his work was made much easier by the circumstances in the state, without which, the Congress was not guaranteed an outright win. In fact, most of its own leaders had anticipated a hung assembly with chances of the BJP, playing king-maker in a choice between the Congress and the BRS. The Congress party was not seen cheering or appearing jubilant, right after the November 3 election date, as it was still not confident of a clear majority.

An important question being asked over and over again in local media and the vernacular press is, whether the people of Telangana had voted for the Congress party or more likely, voted for a leader like Revanth Reddy, a Non-Congress man, not representative of a typical Congress party culture. Were they hoping for a change from the ten year rule of the BRS leadership and did they see Revanth as their best currently available option, given the lack of another leader with better reputation? To many, the latter reason, the people’s vote for the individual, rather than the Congress party he joined quite late in his political career (specifically, his previous Non-Congress political background, reputation and respectability) appears to be the obvious answer.

In fact, Revanth had been an ABVP (the BJP’s student wing) man in his youth, before opting to join the Congress’s main opposition in Andhra and Telangana, the TDP party, in his later years. He is known to refer to TDP leader, Chandrababu Naidu as a mentor and a close friend. He was and continues to be a friend of the TDP leader, who is hoping to make a comeback in next year’s elections, in neighboring Andhra Pradesh. Revanth is seen as a man that the BJP can work with, on certain state-related matters.

Political insiders know that Revanth decided to quit the Telangana unit of the TDP with Naidu’s blessings, back in late 2017. The political events leading up to the TDP’s acceptance of Revanth’s resignation, are those surrounding a shady BRS government approved “sting” operation by the Telangana police, in which Revanth as a senior TDP leader and confidante of Chandrababu Naidu, was allegedly heard offering a bribe to a certain MLA, encouraging him to favour a TDP Legistative Council nominee in the MLC elections. The 2015 phone tapping operation, conducted by Telangana Police under the then Chandrasekhar Rao-led, BRS government, implicating Revanth and by extension, Naidu, created political circumstances, which eventually led to Revanth leaving the Telangana unit of the TDP party with Chandrababu Naidu’s blessings.

A look at the combination of factors that helped the Congress’s win in Telangana, without which, its victory was not guaranteed:

1) K Chandrasekhar Rao’s incumbent BRS party government was facing a strong anti-incumbency wave after almost ten years and two consecutive terms in power.

2) N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP party decided to withdraw its participation from the 2023 Telangana elections, in a bid to focus its energy on defeating the YSRCP party in the upcoming 2024 Andhra Pradesh state elections.

3) The traditional TDP party segments of voters and the TDP party cadre in Telangana, favoured the ex-TDP strong-man and Chandrababu Naidu confidante, Revanth Reddy and his team, instead of the BRS leaders.

4) People of Andhra ancestry settled in Hyderabad city and other parts of Telangana (touted to be a significant percentage in certain electoral constituencies) voted en-masse in support of ex-TDP leader, Revanth Reddy, in an open protest of biased anti-Andhra statements. insults and treatment of Andhra Telugus, by the BRS’s Chandrasekhar Rao over the past decade.

5) K Chandrasekhar Rao hastily decided to field, over 90% of his party’s incumbent/sitting MLAs for a third successive time, instead of choosing a balance of old faces and new entrants. Most voters were expecting to see new faces, on account of dissatisfaction over rising corruption among the sitting BRS MLAs. It was a pre-concluded decision for voters to naturally pick local leaders of the main opposition party, as they were already experiencing anti-incumbency sentiments aside from the corruption issue.

6) While the first term (2014-2018) of the BRS government was generally known for its relatively low corruption levels, not impacting the common man’s monthly wage, the second consecutive term of the BRS party (2018-2023) came to be known for higher levels of corruption at all levels, eventually impacting the life of the common man.

7) Many people, across the class, gender and age divide, were also influenced by the political atrocities happening in neighboring Andhra. They sympathized with a leader like Chandrababu Naidu, who the people of Telangana recognize and acknowledge, as having brought modern technology and development to the larger, pre-bifurcated state of united A.P and Telangana.

The rather dramatic, midnight arrest of Naidu, a senior, septuagenarian political leader and three-time chief minister, on trumped up charges without substantial evidence, in September, barely three months before the Telangana elections, was a big news splash in both the Telugu states. The people of both states, sensed a level of convenient political cooperation and support between K Chandrasekar Rao of Telangana’s BRS party and Y S Jagan Reddy of Andhra’s YSRCP party. The political complicity between the two BRS and YSRCP leaders across state borders, in vengeful, unreasonable acts, utilizing state machinery, was seen to be distasteful, exploitative and unjust, by common people. Such political misjudgements in both states, motivated hordes of common people, to vote for Revanth Reddy, a man and leader with a different political and personal image than both Chandrasekhar Rao or Jagan Reddy – Revanth has a “clean” image and little political baggage. In both political and social circles, he is seen as a decent, family man, hitherto respected for his balanced views, behaviour and conduct, in both political and personal matters.

Shivani is a freelance writer based out of Vijayawada. 

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The post The Lone Telangana Win For The Congress: A Vote For A “Non-Congress” Man Or The Party? An In-Depth Analysis appeared first on The Commune.

Ever since the 2023 election date for Telangana was announced in mid October, it is not surprising to note higher than expected social and political activity in the state. The ECI (Election Commission of India) has confirmed 30 November 2024 to be the single phase state-wide election date with vote-counting likely to take place on December 3, for all the 119 seats to the state’s Legislative Assembly.

First-lists of the three major players have been released – the BRS, BJP and Congress parties, followed by the TDP. In the fray for this year’s state elections are:

– the BRS party (Bharath Rashtra Samithi, formally TRS)
– the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)
– the INC (Indian National Congress)
– the TDP (Telugu Desam Party)
– the AIMIM (All India Majlees E Itehaddul Muslimeen),
-the BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party)
– CPI M: Communist Party of India (Marxist)
– CPI
– All India Forward Bloc
– Telangana Jana Samithi
– the JSP (Jana Sena Party)
– YSR Telangana Party

Some early poll predictions indicate an advantage to the incumbent BRS party followed by the BJP or the Congress, while other pre-poll surveys claim a triangular fight to the finish, between the BRS, the BJP & the Congress with an edge to the BRS, closely followed by the Congress.

In the second scenario, the Congress and the BJP will stand a chance at playing kingmaker, in case of a hung assembly. With both popular predictions, current CM K Chandrasekhar Rao’s BRS party appears to have a clear lead and an advantage over the Congress and the BJP, both of which are beset with problems of disgruntled leaders, infighting and a lack of solid political strategy, relative to that of the ruling BRS party.

If the BRS does return to power for a third consecutive time, it would go down in independent India’s history as a rare and impressive one, regardless of the reasons for its predicted win. The BRS party is expected to continue its opportunistic electoral partnership with the Telangana-based AIMIM party, hoping to carry the state’s Muslim vote under Asaduddin Owaisi’s leadership.

The Congress is desperate to recapture its minority Muslim and Christian vote, back from the BRS party. It is counting on its popular minority face, Mohammed Ali Shabbir, who headed the ‘Minorities Welfare Ministry’ under the previous Congress government in the undivided Andhra Pradesh state (current states of Andhra and Telangana before the larger state’s bifurcation). Shabbir is reportedly putting together the Congress party’s ‘Minorities Declaration’, hoping to counter the BRS government’s schemes for backward classes and religious minorities which includes a financial assistance promise of a one-time subsidized loan of ₹1 lakh to a member each of a BC (backward class), Muslim and Christian families. The Congress party is expected to release its “minority declaration” soon as part of its 2023 Telangana election manifesto, including a rumored ₹5,000 crore budget supposedly for the welfare of the minorities.

The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi party had earlier announced an intention to establish ‘Christian Bhavans’ on the lines of the bhavans or community buildings, that it had constructed for different castes and communities.

A conglomerate of the state’s Christian groups are now trying to present themselves as a united, consolidated vote bank, ready to support any “secular” party. They have announced a 25-point agenda which includes a demand for reservations in both government housing and jobs, proportionate to their population and a “special development fund”. It was reported that a delegation of leaders from three Christian groups (Telangana State Federation of Churches (TSFC), Synod of Telangana (SOT) and Telangana Council of Churches (TCC)) recently met to discuss and finalize a “Telangana Christian Community Declaration for Political Parties – 2023”.

Their demands include a budget for addressing their education, health care, employment, skill development and welfare needs. They also demand two minority residential schools for Christian students in each of the 10 districts where Christians allegedly (as claimed by the Christian leaders) can influence voting patterns based on their numbers, grant-in-aid posts in Christian minority institutions, 5 per cent quota in the existing ‘Weaker Sections’ housing, 2 per cent reservation in government jobs, a helpline and emergency response cell as well as honorariums and health insurance for pastors, priests, brothers and nuns. Their tall list of demands include 100 acres of land in the Greater Hyderabad region and 10 acres in each of the district headquarters for Christian graveyards!

It is no surprise that both the “secular” BRS and Congress parties are indulging in heavy minority-appeasement politics and are ready to go to war over Telangana’s Muslim and Christian votes (2011 official census figures: 12.6% muslim,1.3% Christian). There have been several claims and accusations about the actual Christian numbers in the state being higher… but misreported / under-reported during the census exercise, on account of intentional false information or non-declaration by lower caste Christian converts, hoping to continue taking advantage of caste-based special reservations and economic schemes, meant for disadvantaged Hindu groups.

Does the BJP, which has always claimed it does not indulge in minority-appeasement politics, have an advantage with its focus on the Hindu community’s concerns? The BJP which seemed to have an advantage over the Congress until August, when its state leadership changed hands (the state-level leadership of firebrand, Bandi Sanjay Kumar is sorely missed after his transfer to a national-level post) appears to have lost some recently gained momentum and now seems to be on an equal footing with the Congress. The TDP is a distant fourth with all other parties playing small, niche roles and eyeing an insignificant portion of the pie.

In the run up to the polling, barely a month away, the BJP made two significant political announcements over the last few days:

1) The party revoked the temporary suspension of its Goshamahal (a constituency in the capital city, Hyderabad) MLA. T Raja Singh, a popular two-time BJP MLA was suspended by the party in August, after the BRS government directed the Telangana police to arrest Raja Singh under the Preventive Detention Act, when he allegedly insulted Prophet Mohammed in a social media post. He was welcomed back by BJP party workers with much gusto in Goshamahal constituency, which he has won two times consecutively for the BJP in 2014 and 2018.

2) The BJP announced its decision to field the successful, veteran ex-BRS politician and MLA, Eatala Rajendar, to take on the Chief Minister, K Chandrasekhar Rao, in Gajwel constituency. Eatala Rajendar joined the BJP in 2021 after a solid eighteen year history with the BRS party, during which he scored many impressive electoral wins for the BRS and earned two ministries in the BRS government (2014-2018: Telangana Finance Minister, 2019-2021: Health Minister). Rajendar was discharged from his Health Ministry post and dismissed from the state cabinet in May 2021, by the Chandrasekhar Rao government, after allegations of land encroachments. Rajendar chose to resign from the BRS party and join the BJP in June 2021. He is a seasoned politician with a winning record, that the BJP has chosen to stand up to the current Chief Minister in the Nov 30 elections.

Will The BJP’s Chess Moves Pay Off As Expected?

The gossip columns speculate that the BJP’s electoral strategy for Telangana is a two-fold one, where it hopes to retain its recent gains in the state including an increase in membership, during the upcoming state elections while focusing on the 2024 national elections where it expects the state’s electorate to consolidate its vote for the BJP in a national capacity and support the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who continues to be regarded as a popular and successful national-level leader.

Shivani is a freelance writer based out of Vijayawada.

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The post Telangana’s Electoral Chessboard: Congress And BRS Battle For Minority Votes, Will Counter-Polarization Happen For BJP? appeared first on The Commune.