Ever since the 2023 Karnataka state election dates were announced last week, pre-poll surveys and statistics have popped up on most news sites. Will the Southern gateway of the BJP, vote for the party again and enable it to stay in power beyond May 2023 or will a united opposition featuring an uneasy alliance between the Congress and the Janata Dal Secular, sound the victory bugle?

The Election Commission of India (ECI) announced a single phase poll to take place in the state on 10 May 2023 for electing all 224 members to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. The results are expected to be declared on 13 May 2023.

The three principal parties in the fray for a hotly contested Karnataka state election are the BJP, the Congress and the JDS. Thus far, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Communist parties have had a negligible presence in the state. It is widely believed that the 2023 election is being fought on two main issues (religion and caste) with another two issues trailing closely behind (alleged corruption with government projects and Bengaluru city’s administrative/civic issues).

All three parties have their share of challenges and problems. Most pre-poll surveys project a close contest between the BJP and the Congress with neither party attaining a clear majority and hence depending on the JDS for the required numbers, giving the JDS party a smug ‘king maker’ status.

The ruling BJP dispensation is grappling with allegations of corruption with government contracts/ recruitments and non-payment or significantly delayed payments to private contractors. The BJP is also on the back foot with failing to fix Bengaluru city’s perennial list of civic problems such as bad roads, pot holes, traffic management, water logging during the monsoons and poorly constructed over passes, under passes and small bridges. In all fairness, these issues have been around for a while with no previous government or political party having taken the necessary action to resolve them. However, the city’s residents often direct their angst and frustration on the party in power in any given year and that happens to be the BJP for the last four of the five years, since the 2018 state elections.The party also struggles with its attention split between two important leaders within the state’s BJP unit – the current CM Basavaraj Bommai and the previous CM (2019-2021), BJP strongman and crowd puller, BS Yediyurappa.

The Karnataka Congress unit has been beset by open, heavy-duty infighting between two men with super sized egos – former CM Siddaramaiah and CM Hopeful, DK Shiva Kumar, both claiming support from their party’s ‘high command’. There have been a handful of shameful, openly hostile confrontations between the two leaders, neither unwilling to sacrifice their personal ambitions for their party’s and the state’s larger interest. Despite a show of unity in the presence of the Congress’s national leaders, both Shiva Kumar and Siddaramaiah have often been ridiculed for their childish finger-pointing and sparring between themselves and their supporters.

Additionally, DK Shiva Kumar has been in the news for allegations of corruption, income tax evasion and a few disproportionate-assets charges, by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and the Income Tax department. In their previous tenure, the Congress like the incumbent BJP, was also accused of several corruption charges.The party also fared poorly in its much publicized political alliance with the JDS, resulting in the collapse of the JDS-led coalition government in 2019 and ending the alliance on a bitter note.

As for the JDS, it does not have a strong pan-Karnataka presence, limiting its influence and popularity to the Old Mysuru region including Mandya district. The JDS core votebank is a section of mostly rural and semi-urban people involved in the farming sector, one way or another. Its current leader, HD Kumaraswamy (son of former Indian Prime Minister, HD Deve Gowda) has thus far, not demonstrated an ability to draw the attention of a wider voter base nor the ability to enter into and maintain a strong political alliance with either the BJP or the Congress. The party’s political promises appear similar to those of the other political parties and do not stand out in any way from a vast plethora and clutter of electoral promises. If the JDS does manage to grab a significant share of votes, fulfilling the pre-poll prediction of the party being in a position to strike a crucial deal/ make or break a BJP-led or Congress-led coalition state government, which party will it choose to support and what will it bargain for?

For the ruling BJP, the 2023 elections will be a test of its views and policies in areas of religion (the Burqa ban, communal confrontations on other issues), Caste equations (increased reservation for Lingayats and Vokkaligas while reducing reservations for a section of muslims, internal reshuffle within an increased SC reservation) and its promise of continued economic assistance and support from the BJP government at the centre. Both the Congress as well as the BJP are also engaged in vociferously expressing their views on a long-standing border dispute between Karnataka and Maharastra over Belagavi (Belgaum) district in North Karnataka.

Most political analysts speculate that religion and caste would be the major deciding factors in the upcoming elections, well over issues of development and administration.The Lingayats and Vokkaligas are the two largest homogenous castes in North and South Karnataka respectively with the Kuruba community in the third slot, mostly based out of the state’s Eastern regions. The various Scheduled Caste (SC) communities together form the largest heterogenous group across the state.

Historically, the BJP has done well with the Lingayat community, the JDS has the support of the Vokkaligas and the Congress has traditionally tried to balance caste equations in the state, taking care not to tip the scales too much in favour of any one particular community. Current BJP chief minister and his predecessor, Bommai and Yeddiruppa are both Lingayats, former CM Siddaramaiah of the Congress is a Kuruba, the Congress’s trouble shooter and CM hopeful, D.K Shiva Kumar is a Vokkaliga and the JDS’s Kumaraswamy is a Vokkaliga as well.

All three parties are armed with their respective party’s caste and region-based statistics, calculations and analytics. Which party’s analysis and strategy, based on caste, regional and religious factors, will bring in the votes? Will the voters surprise political stalwarts of all three parties by voting across regional, religious and caste lines? Karnataka will have its political answers in less than two nerve wracking months from now, at the end of May.

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Senior Congress MLA and former Karnataka Assembly speaker K.R. Ramesh Kumar made a statement yesterday saying, “When rape is inevitable, enjoy it,” in the Karnataka Assembly. The statement came as a reply to the current speaker, Vishveshwar Hegde Kageri, and it has sparked a controversy.

Kumar, said to the Speaker, “There’s a saying… when rape is inevitable, lie down and enjoy it. That’s exactly the position into which you are.” Kageri laughed in response. A video of the incident has gone viral on social media.

The MLAs had requested the speaker for time to discuss farmer’s issues in the Assembly. Telling members to take a decision on their own, Kageri looked at former speaker Kumar and said, “I feel, let’s enjoy the situation. I can’t keep this under control and take it forward in a systematic way.” Kumar made the sexist and offensive statement as a reply to this.

Ramesh Kumar later apologised for his statement. However, no Media channel or Journalist has covered this issue. BJP Media Spokesperson SG Suryah asked, “Where are all the media houses and journalists now?” on Twitter in Tamil. Check out the tweet here:

“கற்பழிப்பு தவிர்க்க முடியாததாக இருக்கும் போது, ​​அதை அனுபவித்து மகிழுங்கள்!” கர்நாடகா சட்டசபையில் இதை சொல்வது காங்கிரஸ் எம்.எல்.ஏ-வும் முன்னாள் சபாநாயகருமான ரமேஷ் குமார்.

அறச்சீற்றம் கொண்டு பொங்கும் தமிழக ஊடகங்களும்/ஊடகவியலாளர்களும் எங்கப்பா போனீங்க?pic.twitter.com/VSK12SkuNZ

— SG Suryah (@SuryahSG) December 16, 2021

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In the midst of the coronavirus second wave, bypolls were held for three constituencies in Karnataka. They were Belagavi Lok Sabha constituency, Maski assembly constituency in Raichur, and Basavakalyan in Bidar district.

After nearly 90 rounds of counting in Belagavi during which the fortunes of the candidates continued to fluctuate, BJP candidate Mangala Angadi secured a lead with 4,40,327 votes and won the election, while Congress candidate Satish Jarkiholi, who was leading for a few rounds, trailed behind with 4,35,087 votes. The margin rose to 5,240 votes in favour of the BJP.

With this, Mangala Angadi became the first woman to be a Lok Sabha member from Belagavi. She also became the first leader to defeat Satish Jarkiholi. The KPCC working president has never lost an election in his political career of nearly 30 years.

Mangala Angadi thanked the voters and the party workers for her victory.

Industries Minister Jagadish Shettar, who is related to Angadi, described it as the victory of the people. Suresh Angadi’s daughter Shraddha Shettar said that the people had paid a tribute to her father, by electing her mother.

Belagavi Lok Sabha seat fell vacant after Belagavi MP and Union Minister of State for Railways, Suresh Angadi, had passed away due to COVID-19. The Congress MLA from Basavakalyan, B Narayana Rao, also had succumbed to the coronavirus infection.

Angadi, a four-time Lok Sabha member from the region, died due to Covid-19 on September 23, 2020 in New Delhi, while Rao died on September 24, 2020 in Bengaluru.

In Belagavi, the BJP had fielded Mangala Angadi, widow of the late Suresh Angadi. Congress had fielded its statue unit Working President Satish Jarkiholi, who is also the brother of the former minister Ramesh Jarkiholi, who is embroiled in the sleaze CD scandal. The major fight was between these two candidates.

Pratapagouda Patil, MLA of Maski, had crossed to the BJP from the Congress and therefore became disqualified.

The bypolls were held on March 17 and the votes were counted on May 2.

Of the 18,13,567 strong electorate in Belagavi, 10,16,025 voted, resulting in 56.02 per cent polling. Of 6,435 postal ballots issued for absentee voters in Belagavi, 5,831 were received. Rajya Sabha member Eeranna Kadadi said that there were different reasons, including hesitation among some voters to come out in the middle of an epidemic, for the lower margin.

Maski goes to Congress, while BJP wins in Basavakalyan

Basanagouda Turvihal, pitted by the Congress against BJP’s Pratapgouda Patil, won at Maski. The Congress candidate secured 86,337 votes to win with a comfortable margin of 30,606. Patil, meanwhile, polled 55,731 votes.

BJP candidate Pratapgouda Patil was among the 17 MLAs of the then ruling Congress-JD(S) coalition who had defected to the BJP and helped it come to power in the State.

However, the anti-incumbency wave sweeping across the constituency against Mr. Patil has resulted an impressive win for Congress candidate Basanagouda Turvihal, who was with the BJP back in 2018. The absence of a third strong candidate that could have split Congress votes was another advantage for him.

Speaking to reporters after he came to know of the result, the BJP candidate said that the people have acted for a change and chosen Basavanagouda Turvihal. He wished all the best for the people of the constituency. He also said that when the people had decided in advance to defeat him, no one and any amount of campaigning will not have any effect. He however said he will continue to work for the people of the constituency as a party activist.

In Basavakalyan constituency, BJP candidate Sharanu Salagar won with a margin of 20,629 votes votes. Congress candidate Mala Narayana Rao was the runner-up.

The solid support of Lingayats is seen as a major reason for Salagar’s victory. Laying the foundation stone for the new Anubhava Mantapa, a ₹600-crore project, and the formation of the Karnataka Veerashaiva Lingayat Development Board with a budgetary allocation of ₹500 crore contributed to the mobilisation of community votes for Salagar.

Also in the fray was Syed Yasrab Ali Quadri of the JD(S), polling 11,402 votes. This was the only constituency where the JD(S) fielded a candidate, and it is believed this took away minority votes from the Congress.

The Maratha votes appear to have been split between the Congress and BJP. The formation of a Maratha Development Corporation by the BJP government played its role here. The former MLA and Maratha leader M.G. Mule, who had filed nomination papers as Nationalist Congress Party candidate, withdrawing his candidature too avoided a further split in votes and helped the BJP.

In all, 30 candidates, including 10 in Belagavi, 12 in Basavakalyan and 8 in Maski contested. Of them, 26 were men and 4 women.

There were also 5 Independents each in Belagavi and Maski, and 4 in Basavakalyan.

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The brother of Basanagouda Turvihal, Congress candidate from Maski assembly constituency of Karnataka, created a commotion at the vote counting centre.

Karnataka Congress leader Basanagouda Turvihal’s brother, Siddanagouda Turvihal, complained that counting details were not being provided properly. The police later took him away and detained him in a room.

Siddanagouda got into an argument with the police officers on duty as they tried to calm him down and let the counting officers get on with their job. But the fracas continued. At this juncture, deputy commissioner, R Venkatesh Kumar, asked the police to take him into custody. Turvihal was escorted by the police to the media room where he was seated.

Speaking on this occasion, Siddanagouda accused officials of failing to provide proper information to his query about the counting of votes.

Counting of votes took place today in Karnataka in the two assembly constituencies and one Lok Sabha constituency.

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A committee has been formed to probe into the veracity of reports of Congress leader Prakash Rathod allegedly caught watching obscene video in the Karnataka Assembly.

Chairman of the Legislative Council K. Prathapchandra Shetty made the announcement on Monday, after the House convened. The panel will have Tejaswini Gowda, B.K. Hariprasad and Marthibbe Gowda as members.

Earlier, multiple media reports stated that Prakash Rathod, a Member of Legislative Council (MLC) belonging to the Congress party, was caught watching video clips and images said to be pornographic in nature on his phone during the Question Hour on Friday (January 29).

The act was caught by a cameraman belonging to a regional media channel. In the video, the MLC can be seen surfing through the visuals some of which were pornographic in nature. However, the Congress leader denied the allegations.

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