Himachal Pradesh, a small state in the Himalayan mountains that has a tendency to throw out the incumbent has been the norm since 1980’s. Would this pattern change is the million dollar question? The vote share and seat share graphs clearly depicts that the contest is truly bipolar in this hill state and both the national parties have rock solid support base of around 40% each.
In order to capture power in this state winning in Kangra and Mandi districts are crucial and also historically it is seen that the party which wins Lahaul & Spiti goes on to sit in power. Even in 1998 when BJP formed coalition government with Sukh Ram’s party it was his HVP which won this seat. Otherwise in the last 3 decades the party which wins this lone seat in the district wins the state.
Himachal is a rare state where you find over 50% of its population from General or Forward Caste. Thakurs and Rajputs from the majority here and the state has Chief Ministers only from these communities. Shanta Kumar of BJP was from Brahmin community and the remaining CM’s have been from Rajput community.
All the opinion polls clearly give an edge to BJP and it looks like a trend reversal is happening after 4 decades where the party in power is coming back. The reasons are many which includes:
- Popularity of Narendra Modi & Schemes of Central Government
- Turnout of women were more than men & women tend to lean towards BJP more than Congress. Free ration is a big hit with women as we saw in Uttar Pradesh
- According ST status to Hatti community by BJP Government (The 3-lakh strong community has presence in 8 seats)
- Success of Jal Jeevan Mission
- Lack of CM face in Congress (They missed Virbhadra Singh)
- Congress took the right issue of Old Pension but it was taken late in the campaign
- Lack of focus by Congress in campaigning
- Women were not willing to believe the promise from Congress party that they would give Rs. 1500 per month to women from age group of 18 years to 60 years
- Lack of proper election management particularly rebel management has hit the Congress badly. Rebels played havoc in around 13 seats from Congress while the rebellion was managed better by BJP. This is going to cost the Congress a chance to come back to power.
Key Contests
- Seraj: CM Jai Ram Thakur
- Haroli: Leader of Opposition
- Shimla Rural: Vikramaditya Singh, S/o Virbhadra Singh
- Dalhousie: Senior INC leader Asha Kumari
- Dehra: Hoshiyar Singh (BJP rebel)
- Hamirpur: Asish Kumar (Congress rebel)
- Pachhad : 7 time INC MLA & Former Speaker Gangu Ram Musafir as Congress rebel
- Mandi: Former BJP Media incharge Praveen Sharma as BJP rebel
- Sullah: Congress rebel Jagjiwan Pal
Effects Of Congress Rebels And Why It Gives Slight Advantage To BJP
Dainik Bhaskar reported that due to rebels Congress is losing in 13 seats where there was a chance. They are:
Assembly Constituency (AC No.) 14. Sullah
(AC No.)25. Anni (SC)
(AC No.)29. Seraj (CM Seat)
(AC No.)35. Sarkaghat
(AC No.)38. Hamirpur
(AC No.)45. Kutlehar
(AC No.)50. Arki (Ex. CM Late Virbhadra Singh Seat)
(AC No.)55. Pachhad (SC)
(AC No.)60. Chopal
(AC No.)61. Theog (CPM seat)
(AC No.)63. Shimla
(AC No.)66. Rampur (SC)
(AC No.)68. Kinnaur (ST)
We did an extensive research in most of the above mentioned constituencies and came with these actual facts.
AC No. 14: Sullah
BJP won this seat by 10,291 votes in 2017. BJP MLA Parmar won the seat in 2017 with a 15% margin. Jagjiwan Pal who had defeated Parmar twice in the past is the INC rebel candidate who would cut into non local INC candidate Jagdish Sapehia. Pal is popular amongst SC & OBC voters. Pal was summoned to Delhi by High Command. He categorically told them that Jagdish is an outsider and has no business in this constituency. BJP’s candidate Parmar had won this seat thrice and Pal had won twice. BJP is retaining this seat and Pal has heavily damaged INC. It is to be noted that former BJP CM Shanta Kumar had won thrice for BJP here.
AC No. 25: Anni (SC)
Anni is an interesting 4 cornered contest. BJP denied seat to sitting MLA & & Congress denied seat to its losing candidate of 2017. Both are contesting as rebels. CM had personally campaigned. In a 4 way contest & the advantage could be for BJP or Rebels. Internal news is that INC is behind in the race. It looked Congress had an advantage in the beginning of the campaign but now the reports indicate that heavy damage has been inflicted by rebels. And after all the Modi magic may come handy for BJP. BJP ‘s winning margin was 5983 votes or 10% in 2017.
AC No. 29: Seraj
This is a VIP Seat represented by CM Jairam Thakur. There were talks of a big fight & Congress was in the race. Going by the latest reports it looks like Congress campaign & more importantly their own workers might not have voted for its candidate Chet Ram since this place have seen massive development like indoor stadium, lift irrigation, water supply augmentation scheme, better roads, etc. This 100% rural constituency was thought to shock the CM but chances appear to be less than what was told in October 2022.
AC No. 35: Sarkaghat
BJP denied ticket to sitting MLA Col. Inder Singh & Congress choose Pawan Kumar who had lost in 2017. 7 time Congress MLA & Senior disgruntled leader Rangila Ram Rao rebelled but didn’t file his nomination. While Pawan Kumar the official INC candidate Is perceived to be close to Kaul Singh Thakur who was positioning to be the INC CM hopeful, Rangila Ram was close advisor to Late CM Virbhadra Singh. Internal reports suggest that there was lack of coordination on ground resulting in Congress losing ground in the final stages.
AC No. 38: Hamirpur
BJP had won this seat by 7231 votes in 2017 & retained its MLA. Congress is facing rebellion from few & its leader Ashish Sharma seems to have done extensive damage for the prospects of Congress. He is also under the lens of BJP since in the event of 3 way contest he may reach the pole position. But certainly he seems to have damaged the prospects of Congress. With declared assets of over ₹13 crores he is the richest contestant in this seat & local reports indicate that he has spent lots of money for this election. Damage to INC
AC No. 45: Kutlehar
BJP has been winning this seat from 1993 & it has retained 4 time sitting MLA Virender Kanwar & Minister. Having not won this seat ever since 1985 INC would find the going tough. There is a presence of Retired Navy officer as an Independent who is cutting into Congress votes.
AC No. 50: Arki
Arki was represented by Ex. CM Virbhadra Singh in 2017. After his death Sanjay Awasthi won the by-poll. Now BJP has fielded 2 time MLA Govind Ram Sharma who is pretty popular. It may not be easy for Congress to retain this seat this time. However it was a INC bastion.
AC No. 55 Pachhad (SC)
Pachhad (SC) is where the 7 time Congress MLA & Former Speaker Gangu Ram Musafir is contesting as a rebel Congress candidate hurting the official Congress candidate Dayal Pyari the maximum. We need to see the power of Musafir who can upset everyone. Pachhad is going to be a severe test for Congress party. Musafir, 72 year old veteran from Dalit community was a loyal solider of Virbhadra Singh & is a well-known figure in the state. In the event of the Congress party getting majority he could have been a contender for top post. That could have also been a reason for him being denied the seat. He throwing his hat into the ring has upset the calculations of Congress. His rebellion is triggering a crisis across the state. Sources indicate that he is on the BJP party’s radar along with other prominent ones.
AC No. 60: Chopal
Chopal is another seat where Congress is facing a real threat. 2017 INC Candidate & influential leader Dr. Subhash Chand Manglate is up in arms against the official candidate Rajneesh Kimta. He lost by 4587 votes in 2017. Anti-incumbency votes would be certainly divided and the beneficiary would certainly be BJP. This seat would have been won by INC if they had managed the rebellion. Once more it is in “The Game of Election Management” that Congress is losing. They don’t have any business to lose but now it looks like it is giving this seat on a platter to BJP.
AC No. 61: Theog
Theog was won by Rakesh Singh the lone CPI(M) MLA. He had beaten BJP by 1,983 votes. Indu Verma wife of 2017 BJP candidate joined INC when she was promised the ticket instead the ticket was given to Kuldeep Singh Rathore. Now she has thrown the hat into the ring. If INC had supported CPIM here then it have got the their support in return in other constituencies. Index of Opposition Unity (IOU) which is spoken in media is not practiced on ground. A 4 way fight would favour BJP here because anti-incumbency votes are scattered.
AC 66. Rampur (SC) & AC 68: Kinnaur (ST)
Kinnaur (ST). Congress won this seat by a mere 120 votes. With rebellion, non-cooperation on ground plus the Tribal factor would play an heavy role in deciding the winner of this seat. I am tempted to give edge to BJP but would still be a close fight. If after all these Congress wins at Rampur (SC) & Kinnaur (ST) then they have tilted in their favour. But I believe poor election & rebel management has costed INC at Himachal Pradesh.
Hence my prediction for Himachal Pradesh is as follows:
BJP: 37 to 41
INC: 23 to 28
AAP: 0
Others: 1-4