Pakistani military planners would be working overtime for the next couple of months. The extra hours are to design and execute the next terrorist attack in India.
Terrorism as a state policy is the cornerstone of Pakistani nationhood. The European Foundation for South Asian Studies has published a research paper on Pakistan. In it, they outline how the Pakistani armed forces and the Islamic clergy thrive on the continuation of low intensity conflict with India. Permanent peace means the loss of relevance and livelihood for them.
The India-Pakistan ceasefire agreement of March 02, 2021, has made headline news around the world. This will bring a few weeks of peace in the border areas of the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. What happens next is unfortunately a gruesome reality for India. The forecasted scenario would be of bombed Indian citizens crying for help. The so called world leaders would condemn the atrocity and go back to their business. The perpetrators would be terrorists launched and coordinated from Pakistan. This is not a fiction, India’s history has shown this happening multiple times.
Pakistan’s armed forces spin the manufactured “Indian Security Threat” for its funding and very existence. It has launched barbaric terrorist attacks on India when peace seems to be taking hold. While there are many hundreds of examples, two notables are given below:
- May 1999: Pakistan launched the Kargil war. This was in response to Indian Prime Minister, Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s extending a hand of friendship by taking a bus trip to Pakistan.
- 2015/2016: Pakistan sent terrorists to attack the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot. This was in response to Indian Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi attending the wedding of Pakistani Prime Minister’s granddaughter
The Pakistani military has mastered the obnoxious terrorist strategy. It has never faced real consequences for its inhuman and offensive behavior. In an article, foreign affairs expert Dhruva Jaishankar writes “Despite the highs and lows in India-Pakistan relations over the past two decades, there is no evidence that Pakistan has made serious attempts at dismantling this terrorist infrastructure,”. It acts with impunity and its leaders like Imran Khan even brag about it openly.
Below is an excerpt from a fascinating joint hearing before the Committee on Foreign Affairs, United States House of Representatives, July 12, 2016.
General Musharraf spoke on television in February about how Pakistan supported–provided support for Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, also known as LeT, and to the JeM, and essentially said terrorism was fine as long as it is directed at India.
Frederic Grare, writing for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, states that the world is struggling to deal with Pakistan’s repeated violation of international law. It is up to the Indian government to be aware of this reality and make it extremely painful for Pakistan if it chooses to continue its behavior. Indian policymakers should have no illusion about Pakistan or its master, the Chinese Communist Party. The longevity of the latest ceasefire would be no more than a few months at best.
Prime Minister Modi has the best chance to change Pakistan’s behavior. But he needs the Indian public to stand behind his government.
After every peace initiative, the Modi government should;
1. Increase the national security threat level to the highest category
2. Increase surveillance in all critical infrastructure
3. Conduct Threat Modelling against full spectrum of scenarios
4. Assumptions should include “fat tails” (as in standard deviation). This means the possibility of worst case attacks is more likely
5. Get in touch with friendly world powers now rather than wait for an attack to happen
6. Keep Pakistan busy and on the defensive
7. Increase India’s cooperation with friendly Muslim nations
8. Domestic threats should monitored on a war footing. The usage of Breaking India forces could be the surprise conduit next time around
Tackling Pakistan should be left to the professional defense experts who truthfully accept India as their motherland. If not, “Ceasefire with Pakistan” means only small section of Indian society has work. That would be the crematorium workers of India.