The world is witnessing the crippling challenges faced by Pakistan due to its ongoing economic crisis. Pakistan’s political tensions and Army’s direct interference in the political upheaval have resulted in a serious economic fall. Pakistan establishment is battling severe public discontent due to flour crisis and fuel shortage among others. The Islamic ‘Republic’ is also facing rising instances of terror attacks by the proscribed outfit Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In a recent interview with Dubai-based Al Arabiya TV, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif said that Pakistan has learned its lesson after three wars with India and stressed that now it wants peaceful relationships with India.
He also wants to solve all the outstanding issues between India and Pakistan as both countries claim the disputed Kashmir in full but administer separate portions of it. But he has repeatedly stated on record that talks can only take place after India undoes the Article 370 abrogation.
A Mess Of Its Own Doing
Pakistan needs funds, as its inflation is on the uptrend and its forex reserves have fallen. Foreign reserves in Pakistan’s central bank had fallen below $5 billion. The clock is ticking for the new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to fund the financing gap as their foreign reserves will cover only two more months of imports. Pakistan’s agricultural growth has slowed down, diesel is very costly, power bills are high, and more chaos is waiting to unfold.
So, all those mentioned above showcase a clear picture that the Pakistan government has no other option except to implement the IMF programme as the government could not offer reasonable subsidies to any critical sector including the flood-affected people of Pakistan. Pakistan entered the $6 billion dollar IMF programme in 2019 which was raised to $7 billion this year. Pakistan will get $1.18 billion after the programme’s 9th review which is currently pending because of its unpaid dues.
Food inflation has already gone up. Even the demand for rice, which is a major export from Pakistan, has gone up domestically because of the flood that affected the breadbasket areas (Punjab and Haryana) of Pakistan. Pakistan suspended trade with India after Article 370 was abrogated.
There have been no technological advancements in agriculture over the years, and no high-yielding breeds developed. No land reforms either. Meanwhile, the canals are drying up and the water table is dipping. The farmer gets no incentives. Fertiliser is expensive, as apart from urea, others are imported.
Almost 95% of the medicines produced in Pakistan are manufactured with raw materials imported from China, India, and some other countries of the world. Medicine manufacturing can come to a halt due to the non-availability of dollars.
Due to the supply chain disruptions brought about by the ongoing war in Ukraine, gasoline and diesel prices were up by 43% and 56% – Pakistan Rupees 214/l and Rupees 227/l, respectively. The prices were raised as the government had cut the subsidy amount to meet IMF conditions and get the required loan to bail out the country.
The Petroleum Division has warned the central bank that the stocks of petroleum products may dry up as banks are refusing to open and confirm Letters of Credit (LCs) for imports as a shortage of crucial dollars.
Banks refused to open Letter of Credit. Orders from China, India, the US, and Western Europe were stuck. The shortage of medicine could lead to human tragedy.
According to a media report, the ship agents have forewarned the cash-strapped Pakistani government that all export cargoes could come to a halt as foreign shipping lines are considering stopping their services for the country after banks stopped remitting freight charges to them due to a lack of dollar availability.
Apart from bordering countries, almost all the international logistics from Pakistan are catered by sea and any disruption could create serious issues for the country’s international trade. The annual freight bill of Pakistan is around USD 5 billion, and foreign companies receive the charges in international currencies. Delays in remitting their legitimate dues will constrain Pakistan’s external trade.
The forex crisis has deepened the woes of textile manufacturers also, who are responsible for around 60 percent of Pakistan’s exports.
Internal Tensions And External Factors
The Sindhis believe the state onslaught and the widespread Chinese intrusion in Pakistan have threatened their culture, language, and pluralistic values. Their fight for a separate homeland has been going on for decades.
Balochistan is one of the four provinces in Pakistan with 7% of Pakistan’s total population. Both strategically and historically, it plays an integral role. As there is a lack of political autonomy in the country which leads to conflict. Balochistan is fighting for liberation from Pakistan and this is spearheaded by a group BLA – Balochistan Liberation Army. BLA is banned in Pakistan and this conflict has lasted for several years and continues. These Baloch separatists have been fighting for control of their land by attacking Pakistani authorities, security forces, and even Chinese nationals as a mark of protest.
Pakistani Taliban (TTP) ramp up their murderous attacks on Pakistani soldiers, ISI officers, police, and ordinary citizens. Over 100 attacks have occurred for over 50 days just a few months ago.
China has expanded its footprint more than any other country in Pakistan. China and Pakistan support each other with their capacities to counter India. Chinese arms and money continue to flow into Pakistan. China indirectly supports terrorism by blocking action against terrorists. China’s double standards were showcased when it twice blocked a proposal to blacklist Jaish-e Mohammed (JeM) chief. China’s close ties with Pakistan ensure they remain mute to its human rights violation of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang.
Is Pakistan Serious About Its Positive And Peaceful Intentions With India?
We still remember the Parliament attack of 2001 by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed, the 26/11 Mumbai attack in 2008 by LeT, January 2016 terror strikes on the Indian Air Force base at Pathankot in Punjab, followed by Uri attack on Indian Army’s brigade headquarters in September 2016 and the attack on India’s paramilitary soldiers at Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir by a JeM terrorist in February 2019.
So, it is clear that only for its own gain in the name of sympathy, Pakistan pretends to have positive intentions with India. The road towards real peace with India remains long unless Pakistan stops sponsoring and promoting terrorism. Terror and dialogue cannot go together. The present Indian government is very sure that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral and inalienable part of India, and talks can be only on the P-O-K issue. Wishing for all peace talks with India is just a political narrative set by Pakistan. There is also a growing realisation amongst the international community about Pakistan being the epicentre of terrorism in the world today.
Pakistan Has No Other Option But To Go With A Begging Bowl
The Pakistani government has agreed to implement all key conditions of the IMF to revive the loan programme as the country faces a massive economic crisis that includes a market-based exchange rate, an increase in electricity and gas prices, and additional taxes to contain the fiscal deficit. Both the United Arab Emirates and Qatar turned down their money deposit support instead of their interest in investment which would take time to materialize. Foreign countries are tired of helping Pakistan. Pakistani rupee continued to weaken even after IMF announced it was resuming support. Inflation reached 27.3% in Aug-2022, the highest seen in 47 years.
India Must Implement CAA 2019 At The Earliest
Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019 seeks to provide citizenship only to Hindu, Christian, Jain, Parsi, Sikh, and Buddhist migrants persecuted in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. The poverty rate in Pakistan has risen by 35.7%. The people of Pakistan are the hardest hit by the recent floods which forced them to flee their shattered shelters. Soon, there are more chances of Pakistani refugees coming to India as they would want to take advantage of better economic opportunities and keep migrating illegally to India, which may lead to violation of economic rights and that would clearly pose a major burden on developing nations like India. Though the constitution of India respects the life, liberty, and dignity of human beings, it will also affect India’s internal safety. India faces both illegal immigrants and refugees – laws for these two categories need to be framed in the legislative framework. India’s motto for a relationship with other countries is ‘Vasudhaiva kutumbakkam’, meaning that the whole world is one family. The growing political and economic instability in Pakistan is a serious concern for India as it may result in refugee problems and terrorism. Hence it is imperative for the Indian government to safeguard its interests by implementing CAA 2019 at the earliest.
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