Chennai which was once a COVID hotspot is slowly emerging as the bright spot in the fight against the Chinese virus. The city has effectively strategized and fought the Wuhan virus following the mantra of 5 Ts (Trace, Track, Test, Treat and Tech). Unlike the overhyped ‘Kerala model’, the Tamil Nadu government has actually done some credible work with Chennai seeing a downfall in cases and increasing recovery rates. The hospital occupancy rate has also dropped significantly in Chennai.
In this light a mathematical model developed by Prof. Sitabhra Sinha of Institute of Mathematical Sciences has suggested that COVID19 is no more an epidemic in the city. This model shows that the R-value (the reproduction rate of virus), has fallen below 1 to 0.78+/-0.02 for July 10-14 period. An R value above 1 means that virus is spreading rapidly. The virus is considered to be losing its effect when the R value falls below 1.
If the city manages to maintain this track record with no new clusters cropping up, Chennai may see all patients recovering from the virus in the next 2 weeks. “There may still be isolated cases but not an epidemic”, Prof. Sitabhra Sinha was quoted saying by the Times of India.
However, care needs to be taken with respect to other cities like Madurai which has an R-value of 1.41+/-0.04. Prof. Sinha also warns that there have been instances in the past when R-value fell below zero only for it to bounce back again.
Virologists and health experts are of the opinion that Chennai is still treading on the downslope and that it is no time to relax. They expect it to fall to a few hundred in the next few weeks.
Tamil Nadu Minister Mafoi K. Pandiarajan on July 23 said that the COVID19 pandemic has been effectively contained in Chennai when compared to other cities. He assured that COVID19 will completely be brought under control by the end of the curfew period. Earlier in the day, he had given a send-off to the 25 patients who had recovered from COVID19 after taking Siddha treatment at the Siddha Care facility put up at Ambedkar Arts and Science College in Vyasarpadi.
The Tamil Nadu government had gone in for a rigorous testing cum micro-planning model. Health Secretary J. Radhakrishnan has been on the forefront setting up fever clinics at different places in a zone and also increasing awareness about wearing masks and maintaining social distancing.
It is now time for other cities to go the Chennai way.