Dinamalar has unveiled the conclusive third part of its highly anticipated pre-poll survey ahead of the imminent Lok Sabha elections of 2024, scheduled for 19 April 2024. This survey has been eagerly awaited by the public, especially in constituencies marked by intense campaigning and notable candidates. Currently, these constituencies show a preference towards the BJP and its allies.
Theni
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK won only the Theni constituency and the current MP is from the AIADMK P Ravindhranath, he was denied a ticket this time and given to V T Narayanasamy of the same party and other candidates contesting for this constituency is Thanga Tamilselvan from DMK and TTV Dhinakaran Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) ally of BJP.
The pre-poll survey suggests that the wind blows here favours BJP alliance’s TTV Dhinakaran leads with a big 54.50%, followed by DMK with 27.80%, ADMK with a mere 10.70%, and NTK with 5.80%. The survey forecasts that this particular constituency is a stronghold for the BJP, consistently securing victory by a significant margin. Dinakaran’s campaign has garnered considerable support, largely leveraging the achievements of the Modi-led central government in defense and security. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s influence on the electorate is evident, as evidenced by O. Paneer Selvam’s votes shifting towards TTV Dinakaran, contributing to his decisive victory. Additionally, Dinakaran benefits from his wife’s effective campaigning and the recognition of the familiar pressure cooker symbol, further enhancing his appeal. Despite the familiarity of DMK candidate Thanga Tamilselvan in the region, he failed to maintain the same level of support as in previous elections by EVKS Elangovan from Congress, resulting in a setback. The AIADMK’s presence in the area appears diminished, suggesting a lack of competitiveness due to waning popularity.
Ramanathapuram
In the Ramanathapuram constituency, the current Member of Parliament is K Navaskani of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which is an ally of the DMK. Navaskani has been nominated again to contest in the upcoming election. Other contenders in this constituency include P Jayaperumal from the AIADMK and O Panneerselvam (OPS), who is contesting as an Independent candidate but has an alliance with the BJP. The survey projects that BJP is set to lead with 32.60% of the votes, followed by the DMK with 30.20%, ADMK with 19.40%, and NTK with 10.20%.
The influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is significant in this area, particularly in places like Paramakudi and Muthukulathur, where there is strong anticipation of a victory for OPS. The Modi government’s support for the fishing community has garnered substantial backing for OPS, and infrastructure initiatives such as improved road connectivity, which has significantly boosted tourism, have made an impact here. Additionally, there is a significant portion of undecided voters in the Tiruchuli area, predominantly from the Mutharayar community, whose votes are expected to play a crucial role in determining the outcome, according to the survey.
This constituency is poised for a closely contested election, with both sides vying for victory in what promises to be a tightly contested race.
Coimbatore
The incumbent MP of Coimbatore Constituency, PR Natarajan of the CPI-M, an ally of DMK, has been denied the ticket, which is now given to DMK candidate Ganapathi P Rajkumar. Other contenders for this constituency include Singai G Ramachandran from AIADMK and K Annamalai from the BJP. This constituency is highly anticipated and fiercely contested, as indicated by pre-poll surveys. According to the survey, BJP leads with a significant margin, securing 39.70% of the vote share, followed by DMK with 27.90%, ADMK with 26.50%, and NTK with 5.90%.
DMK has previously aimed to secure assembly seats from this constituency but faced defeat as voters sided with ADMK. However, by nominating Senthil Balaji as the district head, DMK aimed to establish dominance in the Kongu area. In local body elections, DMK won most areas, showing satisfaction among voters. Unfortunately, Senthil Balaji’s arrest by the ED and subsequent imprisonment dealt a major blow to DMK’s aspirations.
Initially, there were doubts regarding the support and influence of BJP candidate Annamalai in the city area, with villages largely favoring ADMK. However, in the past 10 days, perceptions have shifted, favouring Annamalai. Despite DMK’s efforts to sway voters with money and power, the tide seems to be turning in favour of Annamalai and sure win with great margin is said to be on the cards.
Virudhunagar
In the Virudhunagar constituency, the current Member of Parliament is Manickam Tagore from the Congress party. He has been nominated once again to contest in the same constituency. His contenders include Vijaya Prabhakaran from the DMDK, an ally of AIADMK, and Radhika Sarathkumar from the BJP. According to Dinamalar’s pre-poll survey, the DMK alliance leads with 38.20%, followed by ADMK with 27.40%, BJP with 21.70%, and NTK with 6.60%.
Despite criticisms of Tagore’s absence from the constituency and dissatisfaction among constituents, he retains his candidacy due to party nomination protocols of respecting progeny wards quota. However, with the DMK minister KKSSR Ramachandran taking personal charge to secure victory in this election, Tagore’s position seems secure. The survey indicates a clear sweep for the Congress candidate, attributed to the weakness of opposition candidates in the area.
Nilgiris
In the Nilgiris constituency, the incumbent MP is A Raja from the DMK, who has been nominated once more to contest in the upcoming elections. His opponents include Lokesh Tamil Selvan from the AIADMK and L Murugan representing the BJP. According to Dinamalar’s survey, the DMK is in the lead with 35.10%, followed by the AIADMK with 27.70%, the BJP with 23.50%, and the NTK with 9.70%.
The geographic landscape seems to favor different parties, with the BJP finding support in the plains while the DMK gains traction in the hilly regions. Religious demographics also play a role, with Hindu voters leaning towards the BJP and Christian voters favoring the DMK.
There’s a sentiment among voters that the BJP’s candidate, already an MP in the Rajya Sabha, might not need another term in the Lok Sabha, leading to potential loss of votes. Conversely, despite not holding a ministerial position, A Raja has endeared himself to constituents through his actions. In contrast, L Murugan, despite being a minister, is perceived as having achieved little. Additionally, the BJP faces a significant challenge due to the unresolved issue of the Cuddalore tea estate, which has garnered negative attention.
Central Chennai
In Central Chennai, the current MP is Dayanidhi Maran of the DMK, who has once again been nominated to contest in the upcoming election. His opponents include Parthasarathy from the DMDK, an ally of the AIADMK, and Vinoj P Selvam from the BJP. According to the survey, the DMK is leading with 41.60%, followed by the BJP with 29.20%, the AIADMK with 18.20%, and the NTK with 6.80%.
Despite the BJP’s efforts, local sentiment favors the DMK candidate. Despite the incumbent MP’s infrequent visits to the constituency, the groundwork laid by DMK scion Udhayanidhi Stalin and MLAs, along with the accessibility and efforts of local DMK leaders, have resonated more with the electorate. Although there may be some dissatisfaction, the victory for the DMK appears imminent.
Vellore
In the Vellore constituency, the incumbent MP is D M Kathir Anand from the DMK. He has been nominated once more to contest in the same constituency. His competitors include S Pasupathi from the AIADMK and A C Shanmugam from the NJK, an ally of the BJP. The survey indicates a slight advantage for the DMK, with 37.30% support, followed closely by the BJP with 35.40%, ADMK with 17.70%, and NTK with 9.60%.
This constituency witnesses a fierce contest primarily between the DMK and BJP. Despite dissatisfaction among the electorate towards the DMK candidate, there has been no change due to the preference for incumbency as he is an heir of the DMK first family. Additionally, internal discord among DMK party workers adds to the challenge. The constituency also experiences religious divisions, as evidenced by past elections where minority Hindu voters voted uniformly along religious lines. The perception of the DMK as anti-Hindu has weakened its position in certain areas.
Although survey results suggest DMK’s lead, there’s a downward trend in their internal vote percentage. There’s a prevailing notion among voters that the BJP is likely to win, which influences voter sentiment. This perception is bolstered by the expectation of the BJP forming the government for the third time, which is viewed favorably for local industries. Notably, the leather industry, a significant presence in the area, largely supports the BJP candidate. Moreover, the familiarity and positive reception of the the BJP candidate, coupled with the electorate’s desire for development, intensifies the competition in the constituency.
Karur
In the Karur constituency, the current MP is Jothimani from the Congress party, who has been nominated once again to contest in the upcoming elections. Contesting against her are Thangavel from AIADMK and VV Senthilnathan from the BJP. Dinamalar survey suggests the BJP alliance leads with 31.00%, followed closely by DMK with 30.50%, AIADMK with 29.00%, and NTK with 6.50%.
The Congress in this constituency heavily relies on the support of DMK, as evidenced by their mere 2.91% in the 2014 elections. Despite dissatisfaction from both the electorate and DMK, Jothimani’s candidacy persists due to her backing by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. However, retaining their 2019 vote percentage seems uncertain, as indicated by surveys.
The constituency appears to lean towards the BJP, influenced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impact and the construction of the Ram Temple, a project favored by many. Additionally, the Mutharayar caste holds significant sway over the election dynamics. If they favor the BJP, victory seems assured. However, the shift of Naidu votes from AIADMK to DMK could alter this dynamic, though the resolution of this issue could favor AIADMK. Scheduled castes’ support leans towards DMK, further strengthening its position. Despite the multi-faceted competition, the ground-level campaign in the final days will be decisive. This makes the Karur constituency a crucial battleground in the upcoming elections.
Tirunelveli
In the Tirunelveli constituency, S Gnanathiraviam of DMK, the current MP, has been denied a ticket. Instead, it’s been given to C Robert Bruce from Congress to contest. Other contenders include M Jansi Rani from AIADMK and Nainar Nagendran from the BJP. According to Dinamalar’s survey, the BJP alliance leads with 43.90%, followed by DMK with 35.80%, AIADMK with 15.10%, and NTK with 5.20%.
The BJP has selected a current MLA as its candidate, which boosts the already growing BJP influence in Tirunelveli, similar to other southern districts. A significant portion of the population, mirroring the sentiment in Karur, supports BJP for the construction of the Ram temple. This growing support for the BJP, coupled with discontent towards DMK and its incumbent MP, prompted the newly fielded Congress candidate to lose votes secured by DMK in 2019, potentially diverting votes to the BJP.
DMK has responded by deploying flying squads to scrutinize the BJP candidate and actively supporting the Congress candidate. Ministers like Anitha Radhakrishnan and Thangam Thenarasu have been actively engaging with the electorate, particularly Christian voters, to sway support away from the BJP candidate. If these strategies are successfully blocked, Nainar Nagendran stands a good chance of winning, as indicated by state surveys.
Puducherry
In Puducherry’s electoral fray, V Vaithilingam of the Congress, the incumbent MP, has once again secured the party’s nomination. Competing against him are G Thamizhvendhan of AIADMK and A Namassivayam of BJP.
As per the survey, the DMK alliance leads with 46.40%, followed closely by the BJP alliance with 43.80%, AIADMK with 6.70%, and NTK with 3.1%. Despite BJP’s perceived advantage in Puducherry, both BJP and DMK candidates are regarded favorably, causing uncertainty for the BJP. The absence of Modi’s campaign in this constituency could cause some setback and contribute to the prevailing ambiguity. Voters are being courted intensely by various parties, with last-minute inducements playing a significant role. Ultimately, the survey suggests that the party securing the most last-minute support may clinch victory.
Mayiladuthurai
Dinamalar also noted a minor error in its coverage of the initial pre-poll survey for the Mayiladuthurai Constituency. Instead of accurately reflecting AIADMK’s vote share of 24.60%, it erroneously stated it as 10.70%. In the Mayiladuthurai Constituency, the current Member of Parliament, DMK’s S Ramalingam, has been replaced by R Sudha from the Congress, which is an ally of the DMK. Other contestants include Babu P from AIADMK and MK Stalin from PMK, an ally of the BJP. Dinamalar’s pre-poll survey reveals that the DMK could lead with 38.80% of the vote, followed by the AIADMK with 24.60%, BJP with 19.80%, and NTK with 10.20%.
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