With just a few days left until the Lok Sabha 2024 elections in Tamil Nadu, Dinamalar has started releasing its official pre-poll surveys. This comprehensive study, dedicated to Tamil Nadu, seeks to gauge the prevailing electoral sentiments and determine which party holds favor. Covering a sample size of 88,000 individuals from both Puducherry and Tamil Nadu, the survey aims to unveil the current political inclinations and prevailing attitudes. On 15 April 2024, Dinamalar released the first part of its survey findings, focusing on the initial 15 constituencies.
Arani
In the Arani Constituency, the current Congress MP Vishnu Prasad was denied a ticket by the DMK due to his lack of popularity and the limited reach of the Congress party in the area. Instead, the DMK has nominated a new candidate, Dharanivendhan. The other contenders in Arani include AIADMK’s Gajendran and PMK’s Ganesh Kumar from the BJP alliance. According to pre-poll surveys, the distribution of votes is predicted as follows: DMK 51.90%, AIADMK 24.10%, BJP and its allies 14.6%, and NTK 7.40%.
Dinamalar reveals an intriguing observation that the DMK had conducted a survey previously, indicating that incumbent MPs who faced dissatisfaction from the public were replaced. For instance, the current Congress MP Vishnu Prasad has been nominated by the Congress, a DMK ally, to contest in the Cuddalore constituency. The report further highlights that 28% of respondents expressed contentment with the current DMK government, while 41% expressed dissatisfaction with CM MK Stalin’s administration. Additionally, 15% indicated satisfaction with the central government led by PM Modi. Hence the pre-poll survey by Dinamalar concludes that the DMK is likely to retain control of the Arani constituency.
Erode
In the Erode Constituency, the current Member of Parliament hails from the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), Ganeshamurthi. MDMK is in coalition with the DMK, yet Ganeshamurthi was replaced by the DMK nominee, K E Prakash. Other contenders include Aatral Ashok Kumar from the AIADMK and Vijayakumar from the Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC), an ally of the BJP. According to pre-election surveys, the AIADMK is anticipated to secure 33.10% of the vote, followed closely by the DMK with 32.10%, the BJP ally with 19.20%, and the NTK with 11.70%. This suggests a tight race between the Dravidian rivals in this constituency.
Reports from Dinamalar indicate that the incumbent MDMK MP, Ganeshamurthi, tragically committed suicide after being denied an MP ticket, though this development hasn’t significantly impacted the DMK alliance. Furthermore, the AIADMK appears to be leading due to the popularity of their candidate, Aatral Ashok Kumar. It is suggested that the BJP missed an opportunity here as their TMK candidate lacks the same level of popularity.
Kanchipuram
In the Kanchipuram Constituency, the current representative, G Selvam of the DMK, has once again secured the party’s nomination for the upcoming elections. Competing against him are E Rajasekar from the AIADMK and V Jothi Venkatesan from the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), an ally of the BJP. According to the pre-poll survey, the DMK is expected to lead with 40.10% of the vote, followed by the AIADMK with 24.20%, the BJP with 20.80%, and the NTK with 12.40%.
The DMK appears to have the upper hand in this constituency due to several factors. First, the opposition is relatively weak here. Second, the impact of DMK’s initiative of providing free bus services has resonated with the voters. Third, the PMK’s limited influence in the area has contributed to its weakness. Lastly, the AIADMK’s failure to field a strong candidate has further strengthened the DMK’s position.
Mayiladuthurai
In the Mayiladuthurai Constituency, the current Member of Parliament, DMK’s S Ramalingam, has been replaced by R Sudha from the Congress, which is an ally of the DMK. Other contestants include Babu P from AIADMK and MK Stalin from PMK, an ally of the BJP.
Dinamalar’s pre-poll survey reveals that the DMK could lead with 38.80% of the vote, followed by the BJP with 19.80%, AIADMK with 10.70%, and NTK with 10.20%. However, the ADMK’s lack of interest in this constituency and the reported disinterest of former minister Kamaraj from Thiruvarur has led to a decrease in the vote percentage, down to a mere 10%. Despite this, the BJP appears to have a solid support base in this area, raising expectations that the constituency might have been given to them. All candidates fielded are from the same caste, with the minority group showing support for the Congress. Therefore, the Congress candidate is expected to have an advantage in this constituency.
Sriperumbudur
In the Sriperumbudur Constituency, the current MP representing the DMK is TR Baalu. Once again, he has been chosen by the DMK to contest from here. The other candidates include G Premkumar from AIADMK and Venugopal from TMC, an ally of BJP.
According to the survey, the DMK is expected to lead with 53.60% of the vote, followed by BJP with 16.90%, AIADMK with 15%, and NTK with 10.40%. The DMK appears to have the upper hand in this constituency, mainly because the opposition failed to field strong candidates. According to Dinamalar, the BJP had 29% of the vote before forming an alliance with the PMK. However, after giving the MP ticket to another ally, TMC, enthusiasm seems to have waned. With little opposition, the DMK is poised to win the seat convincingly.
Tenkasi
In the Tenkasi Constituency, the current MP from the DMK, Dhanush M Kumar, has not been re-nominated by the party. Instead, the ticket has been given to Rani, while other contestants include K Krishnasamy, the founder of Puthiya Tamilagam, an ally of AIADMK, and B John Pandian, the founder of Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK), an ally of BJP.
According to the pre-poll survey, the predicted vote percentages are as follows: DMK 38.30%, BJP 27.40%, AIADMK 26.70%, and NTK 7.60%.
Despite the DMK’s apparent advantage in this constituency, Dinamalar suggests that BJP could have secured victory comfortably. However, they are contending for the second place. A similar instance in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections was when DMK and BJP were allies and BJP lost in this constituency by a margin of only 887 votes. At that time, the late Karunanidhi remarked to Vajpayee that if a stronger candidate had been fielded, victory would have been assured. Dinamalar suggests that the BJP is repeating the same mistake by not fielding a stronger candidate this time. Additionally, the reception for AIADMK in this area appears to be poor, as it has slipped to third place in popularity.
Thanjavur
In the Thanjavur Constituency, the current MP from the DMK, S S Palanimanickam, has not been nominated by the party. Instead, the ticket has been given to S Murasoli. Other contestants include P. Sivanesan from the Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK), an ally of the AIADMK, and M. Muruganantham from the BJP.
According to Dinamalar’s pre-poll survey, the DMK is favoured to win with 45.70% of the vote, followed by the BJP with 22.50%, the AIADMK with 19.10%, and the NTK with 8.50%. Despite the DMK’s apparent advantage, Dinamalar suggests that the BJP has made significant strides in this constituency, particularly at the grassroots level. Despite discontent with the ruling DMK government in the constituency, the DMK’s strong foundation at the cadre level indicates they are likely to emerge victorious.
Pollachi
In the Pollachi Constituency, the current MP from the DMK, K Shanmugasundaram, has not been nominated by the party. Instead, the ticket has been given to K Eswarasamy. Other contestants include A Karthikeyan from AIADMK and K Vasantha Rajan from the BJP.
According to Dinamalar’s survey, the predicted vote percentages are as follows: DMK with 36.00%, AIADMK with 29.20%, BJP with 24.80%, and NTK with 10.00%. Dinamalar suggests that the distribution of votes and favoritism varies across different constituencies, evenly benefiting three parties. There is speculation about the effectiveness of SP Velumani’s strategies, who is known for his role in sustaining the AIADMK stronghold. However, it appears that his strategies may have lost effectiveness, as the BJP’s efforts have gained traction. Despite this, the DMK appears to be poised for victory in this election.
Thiruvannamalai
In the Thiruvannamalai Constituency, the incumbent MP from the DMK, Annadurai C N, has once again been nominated by the party. Other contenders include A Kaliyaperumal from AIADMK and Ashvathaman from BJP.
According to the pre-poll survey, DMK is anticipated to lead with 57.30% of the vote, followed by BJP with 17.70%, AIADMK with 12.90%, and NTK with 8.50%. This prediction suggests DMK has an advantage due to its incumbent candidate’s strong performance and the support of EV Velu, a minister. Dinamalar reported a historical instance where ADMK, under Jayalalithaa’s leadership, managed to secure a win with a candidate from an unconventional background, but now ADMK struggles to garner even 13% of the votes. BJP’s candidate, originally active in Cuddalore, was nominated for Thiruvannamalai with the backing of PMK is another weakness. With no significant opposition, NTK’s presence is likely to increase. Although a shift of Vanniyar votes from ADMK to BJP could pose a challenge, DMK is likely to emerge victorious.
Namakkal
In the Namakkal Constituency, the current representative, A.K.P. Chinraj from DMK, has been replaced by Madheshwaran of Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (KMDK) for the upcoming election. Other candidates include Tamil Mani from AIADMK and K P Ramalingam from BJP.
Dinamalar’s survey reveals that DMK holds a slight lead with 33.50% of the predicted vote, followed closely by BJP with 31.00%, AIADMK with 27.00%, and NTK with 8.50%. Despite DMK’s apparent advantage in this constituency, there is notable dissatisfaction among voters towards the DMK government and its chosen candidate. AIADMK enjoys moderate support, while BJP benefits from a favorable perception among voters, particularly due to its association with the Ram temple issue. Dinamalar suggests that if BJP effectively addresses this sentiment, it could potentially secure victory in the upcoming election, indicating an interesting three-way contest in the constituency.
Arakkonam
In the Arakkonam Constituency, the current Member of Parliament representing the DMK is S Jagathrakshakan, who has been nominated again by the party. Competing against him are AL Vijayan from the AIADMK and K Balu from the PMK, an ally of the BJP. According to pre-poll surveys, the DMK is expected to lead with 37.20% of the vote, followed by the BJP with 26.40%, AIADMK with 20.70%, and NTK with 8.00%.
Dinamalar suggests that unlike in the Delta areas and northern districts, where the BJP’s influence hasn’t expanded significantly, in Arakkonam, the BJP’s prospects have improved, particularly due to the positive reception received by the PMK candidate fielded by the BJP. Despite the lack of popularity of the DMK’s candidate among voters, the party’s grassroots support is expected to secure victory.
Cuddalore
In the Cuddalore constituency, the current Member of Parliament, TRVS Ramesh from the DMK, has not been nominated again. Instead, the ticket has been given to the incumbent Arani Congress MP, Vishnu Prasad. Other contestants include Sivakolundhu P from the DMDK, an ally of AIADMK, and Thankar Bachan from the PMK, a BJP ally. According to the survey, the DMK is predicted to lead with 51.10% of the vote, followed by the BJP with 20.50%, AIADMK with 19.20%, and NTK with 9.20%.
Dinamalar suggests that there’s a sentiment among voters in this constituency for change, indicating a potential shift away from the incumbent party. The BJP seems to be capitalizing on this sentiment, with their state secretary Asvathaman having undertaken significant groundwork, though he has been assigned to the Thiruvanamalai constituency instead. Had he contested here, he might have secured a Lok Sabha seat. Additionally, the PMK, which received this constituency, has not put forth a strong candidate. In a two-sided contest, the Congress would likely lose this constituency.
Nagapattinam
In Nagapattinam, the incumbent candidate M Selvarasu from the DMK’s ally CPI has once again been nominated. Competing against him are G Surjith Shankar from the AIADMK and SGM Ramesh from the BJP. The DMK is expected to lead with 49.70% of the vote, followed by the AIADMK with 17.70%, the BJP with 16.70%, and the NTK with 15.90%.
Voters in this region, akin to those in the delta, express significant discontent toward Modi’s government. They feel neglected, particularly regarding longstanding requests such as the establishment of jasmine oil extraction companies and government-backed sugar factories. These unmet expectations have led to dissatisfaction with the DMK-led government under Stalin. Additionally, the AIADMK’s strength has waned since the departure of former Minister Kamaraj, primarily evident in MLA elections. Despite weariness with the repeated victories of communist candidates, voters seem to lack viable alternatives, as indicated by Dinamalar’s pre-poll analysis.
Villupuram
In the Villupuram constituency, the current MP, D Ravikumar of the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), has been nominated once again for the upcoming elections. His opponents include Bhagyaraj J from AIADMK and Murali Sankar from the PMK, which is an ally of BJP. The predicted vote percentages are as follows: DMK with 36.10%, AIADMK with 27.80%, BJP with 24.10%, and NTK with 7.80%. Dinamalar indicates that this constituency holds an equal share of Vanniyar and Dalit caste votes. Unfortunately, it is a reserved constituency, and winning candidates must appeal to Vanniyar voters. The incumbent MP has been criticized for not making significant improvements in the constituency, and voters are seeking new faces. Both PMK and AIADMK view this constituency as competitive, with PMK fielding a young candidate expected to secure at least second place.
Tiruchirappalli
In the Trichy constituency, the current MP, who belongs to the DMK-allied Congress, is Su. Thirunavukkarasar. However, he has been replaced by Durai Vaiko of the MDMK, alongside other contenders such as P Karuppaiah from the AIADMK and Senthilnathan from the AMMK, which is an ally of the BJP. The projected vote percentages favor the DMK with 36.50%, followed by the AIADMK with 27.50%, BJP with 24.50%, and NTK with 11.50%.
This constituency stands out due to its inclination towards candidates with a calm demeanor, regardless of their track record. Notably, the AIADMK candidate’s involvement in controversial activities like kangaroo courts, along with his brother’s alleged ties to the sand mafia, has not resonated well with the electorate. As a result, the survey suggests that the nomination of Charubala Tondaiman instead of AMMK’s Senthilnathan presents a promising opportunity.
The failure of opposition parties like the AIADMK and BJP to field stronger candidates has shifted the advantage towards the DMK. Additionally, the NTK is anticipated to increase its vote share percentage amid these developments.
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