June 4th 2024 might be a turning point in the post-independence political history of Tamil Nadu. The state of Tamil Nadu goes for Lok Sabha polls to send 39 Members of Parliament on April 19th 2024, the results of which will be published on June 4th 2024. The state is known for giving massive one-sided mandates as it did in 1977,80,84,89,91,96,2004,2014 and 2019. The state had delivered a split verdict only thrice ie 1998,99 and 2009 giving a respectable number of seats to the runners-up. The winner had taken home almost all the seats leaving nothing for the runners-up in the one sided verdicts.
What makes this election unique is the fact that a strong third front ie NDA comprising of BJP, PMK, OPS, AMMK, TMC and several other smaller parties has emerged and fielded candidates in all 39 Lok Sabha constituencies.
A similar experiment was carried out in 2014 Lok Sabha elections when NDA comprising of BJP,PMK,MDMK,DMDK and few smaller parties polled nearly 19% votes and won 2 seats withstanding the ADMK Tsunami which fetched ADMK 37 seats with around 45% votes. The DMK alliance polled around 26% votes but could not win a seat then.
With the break up of ADMK-BJP alliance a few months back, one can be sure about the fact that DMK is sitting pretty like ADMK was in 2014 and the alliance led by it could end up winning a lion’s share of seats this time as well despite widespread anti-incumbency against the incumbent DMK state govt in TN. DMK alliance polled 53% votes in 2019 LS polls but could poll only 45% in the assembly elections held in 2021. NDA which polled 30% in 2019 boosted its vote share to 39% in 2021 assembly elections. Given the fact that there is no anti-Modi wave now and there is widespread anti-incumbency now against the Stalin Govt, the author of this piece infers from the ground that DMK alliance will lose anywhere between 6 to 8% in vote share from 2021. DMK alliance as per my estimate is unlikely to cross the 40% mark this time around. It could poll anywhere between 37 to 39% this time.
If ADMK-BJP were united now, they could have reaped the benefit of this swing against DMK and boosted their vote share to more than 45% from 39% in 2021 and won a majority of the seats like they won in 1998. But that is not the case now. However, what would be interesting is how NDA and ADMK are going to fare and share this 45% plus anti-DMK votes among themselves. The way this 45% or more is going to be shared is going to determine the future dynamics of TN politics. Let’s explore the various scenarios that is likely to play out.
Scenario 1: ADMK polling about 30% and NDA gathering 15% vote share
In such a scenario, ADMK president Edappadi Palaniswamy would be the biggest winner and TN BJP President Annamalai would be the biggest loser. EPS polling 30% votes when TTV and OPS are not in ADMK will not only cement his place among the ADMK cadres but also convey that he is better placed than any other leader in the state to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. He will get a big boost ahead of 2026 and many smaller parties will also move towards him. If NDA is stuck at 15%, it will imply that Annamalai was able to increase BJP’s vote share to just 7 to 8% from the perceived 3% now as analysts will point out PMK (5%) and TTV-OPS (3%) contributed about 7 to 8% and Annamalai could manage only 7 to 8%. NDA with 15% would not have won any seats as well. Clamour to replace Annamalai as TN BJP President will gather steam and he in all probability will be rehabilitated as a RS MP by his strongest supporter Sri Narendra Modi. And with this, the dream of many a Tamilian to have an alternate to the big two Dravidian parties will suffer a major setback. Once Annamalai is replaced, BJP will start piggy backing on the big two parties again like Congress is doing since 1967.
Scenario 2: NDA polling 30% and ADMK stuck at 15%
In this scenario, BJP will emerge as the second largest party and Annamalai will emerge as the firebrand leader to dethrone MK Stalin in 2026. In this scenario, NDA might have even won 7 to 12 seats as well. There will be a big rebellion in ADMK post this result and the pro-BJP leaders within ADMK will bray for EPS’s blood. A palace coup at Lloyds Road is bound to happen and BJP in all probability will cannibalise most of ADMK cadres, MLAs and leaders in the run up to 2026. A TTV or OPS victory at Theni or Ramnad could accelerate the disintegration of ADMK as well. Both will emerge stronger and their comeback chances to prominence will brighten all the more.
Scenario 3: NDA polling 25% vote share and ADMK managing 20%
Here again, NDA polling 25% will be considered as a big win for Annamalai and put them in poll position ahead of 2026. ADMK will have no other option but to be a junior ally to BJP in 2026 or the alliance will be on BJP’s term. EPS could well get replaced by a pro-BJP leader in ADMK and a long-term relationship like BJP and SS had for decades in Maharashtra could blossom between both the parties. Depending on how badly ADMK has fared in the 10 Pandya region seats, the strength of OPS and TTV will increase accordingly. Weaker the performance of ADMK in these 10 seats, stronger OPS and TTV become.
Scenario 4: Both NDA and ADMK polling between 20-23%
In such a scenario, both EPS and Annamalai can claim victory. EPS will be happy that he managed to retain the core voters of ADMK and Annamalai can be happy about the fact that he grew the party from sub 3% to 15% plus. EPS and Annamalai could reconcile their differences and go on to fight 26 as equal allies and try to dethrone Stalin. Or if their egos are too strong, they can still fight it out going alone in 26 against Stalin and based on 26 outcome, new dynamics could set in for TN politics. This scenario 4 could be a Goldilocks scenario for DMK as no clear winner will emerge to take on Stalin in 26 and if both EPS and Annamalai decide to go solo in 2026.
Scenario 5: One of the two, ADMK or NDA crossing 35% decisively and the other collapses below 10%
In this scenario, whoever crosses the 35% mark may end up winning a sizeable number of seats as well or even win majority of the seats pushing DMK to the second place. This scenario is a wave scenario where a strong pro-Modi wave sets in or a strong anti-incumbency wave against Stalin sets in favouring ADMK big time. Whoever can pull of this turnaround will in all probability win 2026 as well as momentum will be in his favour and the other who goes down to less than 10% will pass onto oblivion.
Any of these scenarios can play out as nobody can second guess what is in voter’s mind. The author of this piece feels the probability of Scenario 3 is on the higher side – 50% chance it will play out. But it is always tough to predict TN voters given their ability to generate electoral waves and tsunamis.
However, 2024 is very crucial for EPS, Annamalai, OPS and TTV. It is a do or die battle for all four. It is a fight between Annamalai and EPS for the second place. DMK is extremely lucky enough to be sitting pretty despite a strong anti-incumbency against its government. Will DMK be lucky again in 2026 or a decisive mandate will be delivered by Tamilians to decide on the leader who can dethrone DMK in 2026? Is it going to be an EPS vs Stalin affair in 2026 or Stalin vs Annamalai battle in 2026?
June 4th 2024 will throw up the answer to this billion dollar question?
(Nanmozhian is an entrepreneur based out of Chennai.)
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