We reap what we sow. This certainly seems to be true in the case of current Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister, Y.S Jagan Mohan Reddy, a first-time Chief Minister of the state, whose entry into the political lime light in 2019, was already mired in controversy – a controversy hinged on his criminal past and his time in a central jail based on over thirty CBI-investigated acts involving illegal financial and criminal acts.
Reddy’s YRSCP party’s term from 2019-2024 is likely to go down in Andhra’s history as a period of massive fraud, corruption and extortion, well above what citizens experience in other Indian states. Jagan Reddy stands exposed for hundreds of cases involving brazen infringement of rights, misuse of the police force, disrespect of the High Court and judicial process, establishment of a parallel mafia/goonda-state and the massive looting of state income and resources, to an extent rarely seen in other states.
The YSRCP’S decline puts the BJP in a fix, as it is now compelled to re-think its partnership options in Andhra Pradesh for the upcoming 2024 national and state elections. Word in the vernacular press and in political circles is that, it is in negotiations with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP (Telugu Desam Party), which almost all surveys point to, as the party with the highest prospects in the 2024 elections. The BJP already has an informal understanding with Pawan Kalyan’s JSP (Jana Sena Party) but the JSP or the BJP know that the chances of winning on their own, are low.
The BJP’s recent appointment of D Purandeswari (July 2023) as President of the state’s BJP unit, is an indication of the party’s understanding of caste equations, probable electoral outcomes and key partnerships in Andhra Pradesh. Purandeswari is a member of the well known TDP political family with roots in the financially lucrative Telugu film industry. She is the daughter of the respected, late Telugu film star and TDP party founder, Mr. N.T Rama Rao and the sister-in-law of veteran politician and TDP leader, N Chandrababu Naidu.
Jagan’s unflattering 2024 predicament can be linked to a host of reasons, grouped together under five principal categories:
1) Gross Mismanagement Of The State On All Fronts
Poor financial state of affairs brought down to a level where even salaries and contractual obligations not fulfilled on time. The plight of the state-run corporations and institutions across all sectors including transportation and education, have begun to worry the common people. Citizens comment on the future of the state and provision of essential services for health, water, power and education for themselves and their children.
2) The TDP Factor
The more experienced TDP party and its leaders were able to point out to, not just the inexperience of Jagan Reddy and his advisors in the administration of a state but also their high levels of corruption and their general lack of interest in the development of the state. Almost all Opposition leaders were able to discuss information on the current government’s poor administration, governance and a lack of development-based planning across all sectors. They were able to present to the people, ample evidence along with statistics, of the gross mismanagement of the state’s resources, finances and administrative services.
Not to be taking any chances, the TDP has hired the election-analyst, Prashant Kishore, ironically the very man who asissted Jagan’s YSRCP party in the previous 2019 elections.
One of Reddy’s recent political actions proved to be his undoing. Jagan’s dramatic midnight arrest of senior TDP leader, Chandrababu Naidu (Sept. 2023) utilizing undue force and without sufficient evidence of the alleged wrongdoing, unleashed public anger on top of the frustration they were already experiencing. His character, immaturity and a long record of vengeance-seeking behaviour, turned the public against him and his ministers. The common man appears to be in support of the more mature, experienced, balanced leadership of TDP’s leaders.
3) Trust Deficit
The non-payment or partial payment of financial asisstance on promised state as well as central schemes, has caused a trust deficit in Jagan Reddy’s leadership and his YSRCP party. Along with an increase in the common man’s problems and the rising dissatisfaction of Jagan’s administration over the last two years, people have begun to question his morals and values. The ordinary citizen’s experience of common government’s processes and subsidized schemes, at all levels and in all departments, including electricity, agriculture, water, tax, education, transportation Etc has been a poor one, exposing high levels of corruption at every level.
4) Law & Order, Judicial Processes
Reddy’s gross misuse of both IAS and IPS officers and all levels of staff, of the departments managed by them, has led to a sense of distrust of the Law and Order services in the state. People feel insecure about their safety with several instances of action not taken on criminal elements, leading to an increase in goondaism and lawlessness in the state. An open disregard for the police and almost all High Court judgements by the chief minister and his ministers, sets a dangerous precedent for the future of the state, which people are uncomfortable with. Jagan Reddy’s disrespect for almost all judicial verdicts of the A.P High court and his complete disregard for established law and order processes, has made people uneasy about the YSRCP party’s leaders and cadre, setting a bad example for the youth of the state.
5) Entry Of His Sister
Presently, Y S Jagan’ Reddy’s sister Y S Sharmila’s relatively new Telangana-based YSRTP party (established July 2021, dissolved/merged into Congress in Jan 2024) has the status of a small, insignificant one, merged with the Telangana unit of the Congress party. Her rumored entry in to the A.P political arena via the Congress party, as a rival to her brother’s Andhra based party, may not have a significant impact in terms of voter volume for the Congress party. But it is likely to attract a section of Jagan Reddy’s party cadre and core vote base of certain SC communities (scheduled caste) as well as converted Christians from both SC and BC communities. Y S Sharmila’s entry into A.P politics via the Congress party will split Jagan’s vote base further, at a time when his approval rating is already low and his party’s chance of coming back to power, appears slim, per the data of the latest pre-election opinion polls in A.P.
Additional Setbacks For Jagan And The YSRCP
The Andhra Pradesh State Legislative elections are scheduled to be held sometime in March or April 2024 (barely two months away) to elect representatives to all 175 seats of the Assembly,
1) The ECI (Election Commission Of India)’s recent visit to Andhra Pradesh
This has reiterated their acknowledgement of several reported cases of voter-fraud and other types of pre-poll tampering by the YSRCP party. Several cases along with evidence have been filed by citizen’s groups as well as political parties, in the A.P High Court and the Supreme Court. The ECI held discussions with all stake holders of the election process. High level meetings were conducted where it was made clear that elections would be strictly monitored and any evidence of deviation from the rules, would not be tolerated. Senior adminstrative officers of the IAS and IPS services, were asked to respect the election process and refrain from succumbing to political pressure. The ECI reportedly reminded senior officers to strictly follow the election code of conduct and ensure a fair election process in the state. The vernacular press and local media are abuzz with the news of the ECI’s top-tier meetings with the high ranking officials, asking them to do their constitutional duty during the election period, failing which, their jobs would be at risk.
Additionally, the ECI firmly rejected Jagan Reddy’s proposal of allowing his party-selected “volunteers” to help conduct and monitor the elections, instead of the educated and trained teachers, that all state governments generally employ for the crucial election process, across the country. This openly outright and emphatic rejection of the YSRCP’s politically motivated proposal, appears to be an indication of the Central Government, the Supreme Court and the ECI’s awareness of the ground reality in Andhra, their public acknowledgement of the deep-rooted corruption in the state and their collective will in taking steps to right the wrongs.
2) Major Rebellion And In-fighting In YSRCP
Thus far, more than 30 current MLAs have reportedly refused to contest or assist the party in the upcoming 2024 elections. The rebellion is now out in the open, with YSRCP leaders talking to the local media about the problems plaguing the party. Many popular leaders have chosen to either resign or resist a party directive for reassignment to a different constituency. Some leaders have openly spoken about the enormous amounts of money Jagan and his close associates have made, while other leaders were being asked to cough up unreasonable sums of money to contest elections, even when the party is flush with ill- begotten funds.
Jagan Reddy’s unsavoury actions seem to have caught up with his political prospects for 2024. Almost all surveys since September 2023 are indicative of his criminal past and present, negatively impacting his nascent political outfit, the YSRCP party’s 2024 state electoral prospects.
Shivani is a freelance writer based out of Vijayawada.
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