After ducking the Enforcement Directorate (ED) summons for eight consecutive times, the sitting CM of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal finally got arrested on March 21st by the ED relating to the alleged Liquor scam for which some of his key Ministers are already languishing in jail. The national TV news channels are abuzz with debates on whether this was a right decision or an unfair one. Kejriwal has earned the reputation of being the first sitting CM to be jailed. I think he also earns the distinction of being one of the rare CMs who skipped so many summons by an institution like ED, proving that he is very different from the aam aadmi that his party claims to represent which has off late become very hard to believe based on the actions of their leader which have been totally contrary to the righteous rhetorical speeches that he had given in his run up to become CM of Delhi for the first time. Let’s see how the narratives that will be played out in the few months to come leading to the polling day.
Kejriwal, a shrewd full-fledged typical Indian politician that he has transformed into over the years, will surely try to rake up the sympathy for him in the minds of the voters. He and his party have already started enacting the predictable script with screenplay and dialogues written by Kejriwal himself from his jail. The appearance of Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita Kejriwal, on news channels reading out her husband’s heart wrenching message that could beat the dialogues of B-grade Bollywood movies that we have seen 10 years back proves that Kejriwal has made his first move on the political chessboard of sympathy card. He might push for continuing as a CM from jail but if that doesn’t work he will most probably have his wife become the CM. If you are reminded of a similar show in Bihar earlier, I can’t help.
People who have observed Kejriwal keenly would know that he sees apologizing as a great virtue that voters appreciate. In 2014, he apologized to people of Delhi for resigning as CM leading to assembly polls. He once promised on his children that he will never align with Congress but he did eventually. He promised people that he will not buy a big car for himself as he wants to be like an aam aadmi and went on to buy not only a big car for his post as a CM but also got himself a lavish bungalow in Sheeshmahal which became the talk of the town. Given all this, I don’t think people of Delhi will get swayed away so easily this time.
People of Delhi have always been clear and have supported Narendra Modi for Lok Sabha and Kejriwal for Assembly. His recent arrest is unlikely to change this trend. Narendra Modi will put forward the dharma of going after the corrupt in this case allegedly being Kejriwal and the public will buy that argument. Had Kejriwal cooperated in the first ED summon itself, there was some valid argument but skipping so many summons giving superficial reasons like doing Vipasana has taken the sheen out of his sympathy act now. AAP and their INDI alliance friends will stage lot of protests against the “dictatorship” of Modi but they will not get many buyers as everyone has earlier seen how Modi and Amit Shah endured court cases against them and came out clean. Kejriwal has missed the bus on that. BJP will keep hammering this into the minds of people, rightly so.
Kejriwal and his party are finding it very hard to counter the argument of BJP that Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh have not been granted bail by the court for so many months thereby there is some meat in their claim that there is a clear-cut culpability. This seems to have dented the popularity that AAP used to enjoy in Delhi once and people are getting tired of them and it will not be a surprise if the AAP fortress in Delhi falls in the next assembly elections. A couple of speeches of Narendra Modi addressing the people of Delhi will neutralize the impact of the protests that AAP does on the streets, unmatched orator that he is today’s times.
AAP will definitely ride on the sympathy wave in Punjab which BJP will care less as they don’t have much presence there anyways. Therefore, I conclude that whether Kejriwal is in jail or comes out on bail, it is not going to have any impact in Delhi or any other states except for Punjab in the upcoming 2024 elections.
Ananth Mahadevan is a political commentator based in Bengaluru.
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