As a student of political history, it is important to look at the past events and predictions from a psephological spectrum.
In the 1980’s and 90’s India’s leading and only psephologist was Dr. Prannoy Roy. Although he comes from a political and ideological affiliation, his analysis commanded respec from all hues.
1991 general elections were conducted over 3 phases and it was an unwonted election since the 1st phase happened on May 20th a day before Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and the remaining two phases were conducted on June 15 and 19.
While the 1 st phase saw a 5.7% negative swing away from Congress party there was a sympathy wave in favor of Congress party in the final 2 phases post the brutal bomb attack on former Prime Minister which saw a 1.6% swing in favor of Congress which helped the party to form the government.
Post the government formation there was an interview published by India Today on July 15, 1991 with Dr. Prannoy Roy which deserves our attention today. When the founder of NDTV was asked what was the biggest surprise of 1991 polls he was categorical in his reply that BJP getting 20% of popular vote and doubling its vote share from 1989 elections was the biggest surprise.
He said, “It came second, after Congress (I) of course, winning 119 seats. Pertinently, the party had gone to the polls without any alliance, except with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra or seat arrangements as in the 1989 elections. The party has also chalked up impressive percentile gains – even where it received none or only a few seats – in states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. For example, its vote percentage in the Marxist bastion West Bengal rose from 1.5 to 9.5 per cent.”
In fact BJP had got 9% in erstwhile united state of Andhra Pradesh.
There were two other important points from that old interview. When he was asked “What will it take for the BJP to emerge as a majority party at the Centre?” His reply was, “It takes about 40 per cent of the national vote (assuming that the elections are fought with a divided opposition) to gain a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJP is still a long distance from that threshold and it will need even more dramatic swings to bring it to that level and be in a position to form a government at the Centre.”
Dr. Roy’s prescription for the Congress party then was, “For Congress party it will have to crawl out of its deep hole in the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar while maintaining its strength in the south and the west.”
Saffron Surge Under Modi
The reason I am sharing this piece of information after 31 years is because of the fact that under the leadership of Modi the BJP achieved nearly 40% in 2014 and in 2019. In 17 states and Union Territories BJP breached 50% vote share. Out of the 303 seats won in 2019 in 223 seats BJP won by bagging over 50% of votes which was an incredible performance by any standards.
Defeats in 2004 & 2009 Lok Sabha elections turned out to be a wake call and blessing in disguise since the party decided to overhaul its machinery. Under the leadership of Modi the party is conquering the unchartered territory and has earnestly started to identify 144 seats lost in 2019 by small margins.
Ministers are being deputed to ensure that the booth committees are strengthened in these constituencies. The saffron outfit has turned into a 24×7 robust party machine which aims to win every election starting from panchayat to that of Lok Sabha.
Bottomless Pit For Congress
On the contrary Congress party has got so used to electoral defeats that they are still waiting to find their abyss point of depression. They seem to have fallen into a bottomless pit but their leadership seems to turn a Nelson’s eye towards the electoral trounces. One of the primary reason for their misfortune is their steady downfall in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
As Dr. Roy had rightly mentioned in 1991 that the reversal of fortune for the Grand Old Party of Indian subcontinent can happen only when there is a revival of party machinery in Uttar Pradesh.
The ability of Congress party to come to power either on their own or through a coalition can happen only when they perform well at Uttar Pradesh. As far as Bihar is concerned the less talked the better it is since there have been no attempts to revive the party since 1991 and is at the mercy of RJD.
A cursory look at the picture would show that it is when the party touches the double digit in the most populous state that it becomes a ruling party at the centre. The only two exceptions were in 1991 and 2004 when the party managed to form the Government at Delhi in spite of a poor performance at UP.
The reason is that in 1991 it was due to the sympathy wave and in 2004 the gap between BJP & Congress was hardly 7 seats.
In the 2022 assembly elections Priyanka Vadra addressed nearly 209 rallies and then too the party came a cropper by bagging just 2 assembly seats with a dismal vote share of 2.33%. The party lost even from Sonia Gandhi’s constituency Rae Bareli and its candidate was pushed to 3rd position bagging just 6.5% votes. There are no signs of revival for the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh.
Amidst this gloom and doom Rahul Gandhi is undertaking his “Bharath Jodo Yatra” where he is set to spend 2 days at Uttar Pradesh while he spends more than 18 days at Kerala which forced the CPI (M) to mock at the Congress leader’s yatra.
It is amply clear that the party is least concerned in reviving in the Hindi Heartland. Dr. Roy’s diagnosis is over 3 decades old but yet the patient is lying in the ICU dreaming that some fairytale would propel the party to power in 2024. Added to that is the fact out of 190 seats where Congress faced a head on collision with BJP in 2019 the Congress party could win only in 15 seats.
We can safely assume that in 2024 the party would face its worst drubbing and reading the writing on the wall the party is preparing to make a non-Gandhi as its President who would then be made a scapegoat.
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