Baseless accusations, polarizing people along the lines of religion and caste by targeting one particular faith, and spreading malicious propaganda through its influencers in the film industry and media have been DMK’s methodology to fight elections since the 1970s.
Even Kamarajar and MGR could not escape the malicious propaganda unleashed upon them by the DMK. The Sattanathan Commission had recommended to the DMK government in 1970 in which it had clearly stated that there are close to 24 castes which have to be removed from OBC and to be included in General/Open Category. The commission also gave a recommendation to introduce the concept of creamy layer for OBCs, making those families with annual salary of more than ₹9000 per annum to be shifted to General Category. DMK did not enact either of these recommendations, but only increased the reservation for OBCs from 27% to 31%.
In 1977, after AIADMK was formed under the leadership of M.G. Ramachandran, it won 130 of 200 seats it contested in the Assembly elections. After MGR came to power, he decided to implement the recommendations of the Sattanathan Commission. However, in the 1979 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK was routed thanks to DMK and its false propaganda. The DMK had campaigned to victory stating that MGR was depriving the Other Backward Castes (OBC) population of their reservation.
Realizing this, MGR had overturned the OBC reservation amendments and increased the reservation for OBCs to 69%.
This politics of OBC reservation is played by DMK even today without realizing that on a national average only 1% OBC have realized the benefits of reservation and those who have benefited do not wish to pass it on to those who really need it.
In the coming election, the DMK will be resorting to their time tested template: regional chauvinism, OBC victimization, minority appeasement through Hindu hatred in the months before elections and morphing into ‘election’ Hindus in the weeks leading to the elections.
A brief look at elections of the past
AIADMK’s bullish run came to grinding halt in 1996 when DMK came to power after 20 years to govern a full 5 year term. With public sentiment against Jayalalithaa for her extravagant wedding show put up for her ‘adopted son’, an alliance with the Tamil Manila Congress (TMC) headed by GK Moopanar (stitched by Cho Ramaswamy) and actor Rajinikanth giving his voice to the alliance, it was a clean sweep for DMK.
However, TMC opted out of the alliance with DMK and joined AIADMK in the 2001 Assembly elections. The Congress, Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), and both the Communist parties CPI & CPIM also joined the AIADMK Alliance. This was the beginning of a new paradigm of alliance politics in Tamil Nadu where parties came together to consolidate vote bank. Even though AIADMK and DMK remained major parties in the state, their victory was decided by the smaller parties in the state. In this election, the AIADMK Alliance won 194 seats with 49.62% electoral votes and DMK + won just 37 seats with 37.03% electoral votes.
Before the 2004 Lok Sabha elections and after GK Moopanar’s death, TMC merged with their parent party INC. In 2006 elections, those who stood with AIADMK in 2001 migrated to DMK. Despite having Congress, PMK and the two communist parties, the DMK Alliance won 163 seats but not exceeding the count registered by AIADMK in 2001 election. DMK had 96 of the 132 seats contested by them giving them a success ratio of 73% but their vote share was 26% in that election. The DMK alliance had a total vote share of 45% and AIADMK alliance 40%.
The 2006 elections had a total of 148 seats which went on close contest. The victory margin was less than 10% of the total votes polled in those constituencies. AIADMK alliance lost to DMK alliance in 75 seats with less than 10% votes. DMDK led by Vijaykanth emerged 3rd in 95% of the 75 seats. They had a vote share of 8.5% in their first election. The DMDK took away the clean sweep chances of DMK and AIADMK in this election. An 8 to 10% vote from a third front is all it takes to make an election difficult for both AIADMK and DMK. AIADMK understood this lesson but DMDK were unapproachable as they wanted to be seen as an alternative to the two Dravidian parties. DMDK continued to maintain this image in 2009 Lok Sabha election in which it registered a 10% vote hampering the chances of AIADMK in most of the seats.
During the 2011 election, the 2G scam had already hit the headlines and numerous corruption charges against the then ‘minority’ DMK government only made that election difficult for them. It was AIADMK alliance all way through from the time the alliance was cemented. DMK put up a shoddy performance despite Congress, PMK and VCK contributing 17% votes of the overall 39% votes bagged by the alliance. DMDK on the other hand continued to maintain the 8% vote share but this time with the alliance with AIADMK ensured them victory in 29 of the 41 seats contested by them. And in the 2011 elections the close contest was in just 36 seats compared to 148 seats in 2006.
Out of the 36 seats, BJP came in either 2nd or 3rd place mostly dampening the chances of DMK’s win in 13 constituencies. MDMK did not participate in this election and despite that DMK could manage just 22% votes. The mistake that DMK did was giving Congress 63 seats in that election. Congress after GK Moopanar in Tamil Nadu is not the same it used to be once. DMK could have gained not more than 25% if Congress contested in 20 seats less than what they did. Having lost the election miserably, DMK lost the opposition party status for the first time and DMDK became the opposition party.
Vijaykanth could have used this opportunity and could have cemented his position in the state. He wanted to take on Jayalalithaa in the assembly and the events post that only defragmented his party. Before the 2016 assembly election DMDK had broken into fragments and 50% of his party leaders joined AIADMK and contested in AIADMK ticket. DMK on the other hand was left only with INC. A new third front emerged in the forefront with the 2 Communist parties, DMDK, VCK and MDMK forming an alliance (Pandavar Ani meaning the five Pandavas). The results of this election shattered the halo of each of the third front parties. The results only indicated that the parties in the 3rd front have meager vote bank if contested without bigwigs like AIADMK and DMK. PMK contested alone with Anbumani as CM candidate and the then new party Naam Tamilar Katchi also contested alone without any alliance. In Tamilnadu, BJP has been contesting alone since 2006 and have been able to retain a consistent 3% vote share till 2016.
Thus the 2016 election saw AIADMK winning 135 seats and DMK alliance 97 seats. But the vote share of both AIADMK and DMK led alliance stood at 40%. There was close contest in 129 seats and the result of this contest hampered chances of DMK.
| 2016 | No. Of Seats Contested | No. of Seats Won | Deposits Lost | Votes Polled | % Votes in Seats Contested | % Votes – Overall |
| BJP | 188 | 0 | 180 | 1228704 | 3.57% | 2.84% |
| PMK | 232 | 0 | 212 | 2300558 | 5.41% | 5.32% |
| MDMK | 29 | 0 | 27 | 373606 | 7.13% | 0.86% |
| DMDK | 104 | 0 | 103 | 1034384 | 5.42% | 2.39% |
| CPI | 25 | 0 | 23 | 340290 | 7.25% | 0.79% |
| CPI(M) | 25 | 0 | 25 | 307303 | 6.80% | 0.71% |
| VCK | 25 | 0 | 22 | 331849 | 6.98% | 0.77% |
| NTK | 231 | 0 | 229 | 458007 | 1.08% | 1.06% |
A striking aspect of the above table is that PMK contested between 20 to 232 seats in the last 4 assembly elections. Immaterial of losses, they continue to retain the 5.32% of 20% Vaniyar vote bank. On the other hand, MDMK which once commanded 10% vote share seems to have lost its ground with less than 1% votes now. CPI and CPIM had contested 17 to 50 seats in the last 4 elections and their best case scenario vote bank has been 4.38% when they contested with AIADMK in the 2011 election. VCK has just about 0.5% to 2%. NTK has grown from 1% to 3% in the 2019 elections. DMDK which had 8% vote bank are left with just 2.4% now.
What will happen in 2021?
Elections in Tamil Nadu have so far been driven by two strong personalities. People if dissatisfied with Jayalalithaa voted Karunanidhi and vice-versa. This is the first election that Tamil Nadu will witness in the absence of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. This is also the first time BJP will be in alliance with a state party for the Assembly election. Needless to mention, even during the time of MGR, people vote differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
As of today, AIADMK and DMK look to retain their 2019 Lok Sabha alliances. However, what has changed between 2019 Lok Sabha election and the coming Assembly election is the arrival of L Murugan as BJP Tamil Nadu President followed by the induction of former IPS officer Annamalai. Ever since Dr. L. Murugan took over as President of the party’s state unit he has managed to turn tides in his favour by capitalizing on this rising Hindu consciousness. Scores of disgruntled DMK cadres from the lowest to the higher rungs have been coming towards the BJP. This will certainly have its effect. Annamalai is set to draw the youth of the state in large numbers. Khushbu Sundar will be able to pull some women votes.
The DMK has understood that a third front can hamper their chances in this election which is why it is unwilling to let go of Tamil Nadu Congress. But it remains to be seen whether AIMIM make an impact as they hope to pick, choose and contest like how he did in Bihar.
There are the smaller parties Makkal Needhi Mayam and Naam Tamilar Katchi who will be fighting for the same piece of the pie, the confused neither want the DMK nor the AIADMK.
The future of AMMK looks uncertain and clarity of their political discourse will be seen only after Sasikala walks out of prison. In the last election AMMK contested predominantly in southern Tamilnadu and managed to get 10 lakh votes. However AMMK has been maintaining a low profile for a long time and it is difficult to judge if AMMK would maintain similar vote bank in the upcoming election.
Having laid out the status of these parties as of today, let us see what could be the case for 2021.
The AIADMK has been in power for the last 10 years. Despite winning the good governance award and showing the country of how it has effectively handled the Wuhan virus pandemic, the anti-incumbency is not something that can be taken lightly. AIADMK will probably loose anywhere between 10 to 15% votes.
Till 2006, AIADMK incumbent votes are for DMK to take. DMDK proved that with 8% votes in 2 consecutive elections, the damage it could cause to DMK is only in terms of winning seats and not vote share. DMK which is known for minority appeasement will strive hard to bank on the Muslim votes. But Muslim votes will prefer a Muslim party than an appeaser. If AIMIM enters the fray, it will ensure that majority of Muslim votes, which now remains as DMK’s strength, is taken away.
More than AIMIM, it is NTK and MNM who are looking at contesting this election without any alliance in all the 234 constituencies. They together will play the role of DMDK in this election having the potential to play spoilsport. NTK and MNM will gain anywhere between 6 to 8% vote share and 160 to 170 seats will have a close contest between themselves.
With the Vel Yaatrai pulling in crowds, the 3% BJP will emerge as an 8 to 10% vote bank party in the upcoming election. They won 4 seats in the 2001 elections and this time it is expected that they will win atleast 15 to 25 seats. The BJP could be the DMDK of 2011.
If PMK moves out of AIADMK alliance, the DMK will be compelled to allocate seats kept for their party considering Congress would settle for 30, Communist parties for 20 and VCK for 15. DMK will be compelled to contest in fewer seats and this will only take them back to a minority position like that of 2006. This will also play spoil DMK’s chances as Congress’s strike rate have been less although they have the potential to command 5% votes share. But after Amit Shah’s recent Chennai visit, the chances of PMK shifting to the DMK camp is doubtful.
DMK doesn’t perform well if there is a strong or a weak third front. This is evident from the 2006 and 2016 election. That is why the DMK has been trying hard to keep the VCK within its fold to appease the 46 SC/ST constituencies. It is important to take note that DMK has not been successful in these 46 constituencies in the last 2 elections. They have won in just 11 and 12 seats in the last 2 elections. They will use the journalists under their wing and will speak of a nonexistent Dalit oppression until election day. The AIADMK and BJP should ensure that such propaganda are effectively countered and not let it pass to ensure these 46 seats remain in their grip.
Also, people in many constituencies are upset with DMK’s Lok Sabha poll promise which remains a promise. They have understood that these were empty promises and would not vote for DMK again.
Given all these development, if AIADMK contests in 170 seats, giving PMK 25 seats, BJP 30 seats, 6 seats to DMDK and 4 seats to other alliance parties; the AIADMK alliance has the potential to win 135 to 140 seats with a 52% vote share in the upcoming elections.
The day AIADMK and BJP announced that the alliance will continue, most of the DMK leaning journalists seem to be visibly upset with decision as they know the ground reality is different to what it was before the 2019 election.
If the AIADMK led front manages to forge a rainbow coalition and does micromanagement, DMK’s dream will remain a dream.